This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog
April 21, 2017
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Periods of showers and thunderstorms likely. Intense storms possible AR/MO state line into the Bootheel and then the KY/TN state line. Monitor evening update.
Temperatures: MO ~ 46 to 55 IL ~ 46 to 54 KY ~ 48 to 54 TN ~ 50 to 55
Winds: East and northeast at 8 to 16 mph with gusts above 25 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Perhaps lightning. Evening storms could be strong over our southern counties.
Is severe weather expected? Possible near MO/AR border into parts of west KY and west TN. Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 80% IL ~ 80% KY ~ 80% TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous/widespread.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. Rain is likely.
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April 22, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Greatest rain coverage before 11 AM. Scattered after 11 am.
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Forecast: Best chance of rain will be MORNING hours. Low confidence on placement of the area of low pressure on Saturday. Plan on widespread showers and thunderstorms between 12 am and 11 am. Then, a chance for scattered showers into the afternoon and evening. Wide range of temperature. If the warm front moves into our region then temperatures will pop into the 60’s south of the front. North of the front temperatures will remain in the upper 40’s to upper 50’s. Breezy, at times. Locally heavy rain possible during the morning. I can’t rule out periods of sunshine if the main band of rain exits early in the day.
Temperatures: MO ~ 48 to 56 (cooler north vs south) IL ~ 48 to 56 KY ~ 52 to 58 TN ~ 58 to 64 Temperatures will be highly dependent on the placement of the warm front.
Winds: Winds will vary depending on your location in the area in relation to the track of the area of low pressure. North of the low the winds will be out of the east. South of the low winds will be from the south. Wind speeds of 8 to 16 mph with gusts to 20 mph. Winds will calm as the low passes overhead.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Downpours.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High confidence on rain occurring. Lower confidence on temperatures.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates. If the low tracks far enough north then some strong storms will be possible.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 80% before 12 pm and 60% after 12 pm IL ~ 80% before 12 pm and then 60% after 12 pm KY ~ 80% before 12 pm and 60% after 12 pm TN ~ 80% before 12 pm and then 60% after 12 pm
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread during the morning and then perhaps scattered during the afternoon hours.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have alternative plans. Rain will be a concern for a few hours on Saturday. If the front moves faster than anticipated then rain will diminish faster, as well.
Sunrise will be at 6:09 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:36 p.m.
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Scattered showers likely before midnight. Chilly. Breezy, at times.
Temperatures: MO ~ 44 to 48 IL ~ 44 to 48 KY ~ 44 to 48 TN ~ 44 to 48
Winds: Winds becoming north at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Perhaps lightning.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60% Rain chances decrease through the night.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered and patchy showers.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have alternative plans. It may rain (especially during the early evening)
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April 23, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Cooler. Breezy. I can’t rule out a shower behind our weekend storm system. Wrap around clouds are possible. Some question on cloud coverage.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 66 IL ~ 62 to 68 KY ~ 62 to 68 TN ~ 64 to 68
Winds: Northerly winds at 8 to 16 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Possible some wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to perhaps scattered. Higher chances over our eastern counties vs western counties (west being SE MO and east meaning SE IL into Pennyrile area of western Kentucky)
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:07 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:37 p.m.
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Clear and chilly.
Temperatures: MO ~ 42 to 46 IL ~ 42 to 46 KY ~ 44 to 48 TN ~ 44 to 48
Winds: North and northeast winds at 6 to 12 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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April 24, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Mild. Nice day anticipated.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 75 IL ~ 70 to 75 KY ~ 70 to 75 TN ~ 70 to 75
Winds: Northerly winds at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:06 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:38 p.m.
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Clear and chilly.
Temperatures: MO ~ 48 to 54 IL ~ 48 to 54 KY ~ 50 to 54 TN ~ 50 to 55
Winds: North and northeast winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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April 25, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Mild. Nice day anticipated.
Temperatures: MO ~ 75 to 80 IL ~ 75 to 80 KY ~ 75 to 80 TN ~ 75 to 80
Winds: South at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:07 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:37 p.m.
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Clear.
Temperatures: MO ~ 56 to 62 IL ~ 56 to 62 KY ~ 56 to 62 TN ~ 56 to 62
Winds: South at 5 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day
Severe thunderstorm outlook.
Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 60 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Friday night: Showers and storms likely. Some heavy rain possible. Some of the storms could be severe along the MO/AR border into the Missouri Bootheel and then into west KY and west TN. Damaging wind is the main concern.
Saturday: A warm front will find itself draped across portions of Kentucky and Tennessee. There remain some questions as to how far north to bring the warm front. Anyone south of the front will experience temperatures in the 60’s and 70’s. Areas north of the front will remain in the upper 40’s to upper 50’s.
Dew points south of the warm front will rise into the 60’s.
It is possible that portions of the Missouri Bootheel, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee will experience some locally heavy storms. I can’t completely rule out severe weather, but confidence is low. It might be that severe storms remain south of our region.
Monitor updates on Saturday morning. A line of storms will advance along the cold front. It is that line of storms that could produce severe weather. Again, perhaps south of our area, but close enough to warrant monitoring.
Sunday through Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Weather analysis for the next few days:
Photograph from Jacob Woods (Graves County, KY). This was one of the storms that moved through the area on Thursday.
Friday night
Evening storms could be intense over our southern counties. Monitor updates.
Showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday night. Warm air will override a warm front draped to our south. This will cause showers and thunderstorms to develop in our local area.
The thunderstorms should remain elevated. That means the risk for severe storms is low. Heavy downpours and lightning will be the main concern.
It is possible there will be a lull in the precipitation on Friday evening. Perhaps on and off scattered showers and thunderstorms. The greater coverage will likely occur along the cold front after 1 am on Saturday.
Wild differences in model guidance as to where the low will track.
Future-cast radar from 3K NAM guidance
LOW confidence on these maps. The NAM has the low moving WAY further north than the GFS guidance. This makes a big difference on where the line of thunderstorms will occur.
The problem with these graphics is that they are dependent on the low passing into northern Arkansas and then into western Kentucky and western Tennessee. We will see. I believe the low will move through Arkansas and then into Kentucky/Tennessee.
7 PM future-cast radar for Friday evening
10 PM Friday
1 AM Saturday
4 AM Saturday
Saturday:
There remain questions about precipitation coverage on Saturday. It is possible there will be a lull in the rain ahead of a line of storms moving into the region from the west. Then, behind the line of storms, there could be a lull, as well.
This raises questions as to just how long it rains on Saturday.
If the low passes well to our south then widespread showers will occur with embedded thunderstorms. If the low passes further north then one main band of showers and storms will occur. Tough forecast.
I still believe the low will move through Arkansas and then into Tennessee. Perhaps not Kentucky.
I continue to encourage everyone to have alternative indoor plans. If it rains, then you will have been prepared. If it does not rain, then you can enjoy your event.
I suspect what will happen is that a band of showers and storms will push from west to east across our region. Locally heavy rain and gusty winds with the line. Lightning will also be a concern. Spotty showers are possible ahead and behind the main band of showers and storms.
This will likely mean several hours of dry weather on Saturday. LOW confidence on how this plays out. Keep that in mind.
Plan for the worst and hope for the best! That is my advice for Saturday.
Here is the future-cast radar from the NAM.
LOW confidence on this subject. For this to verify you will need the low to pass into Kentucky and Tennessee. If the low is further south then rain will be more widespread. If the low is further north then a line of storms will occur with dry periods ahead and behind the line.
4 AM future-cast radar
7 AM future-cast radar for Saturday
10 AM future-cast radar
1 PM future-cast radar
4 PM future-cast radar for Saturday
Here is the GFS. It takes the low further south. EC model also shows the same.
7 AM Saturday
Widespread rain
10 AM Saturday
Keep in mind, the GFS is lower resolution model. It will show larger areas of green. It is the dark green where the rain is heavier.
1 PM Saturday
Spotty showers
4 PM Saturday
Spotty showers
Temperatures on Saturday could vary considerably from north to south. It is possible that northern portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois will remain in the 48 to 54 degree range. South of the front, over portions of western Kentucky and western Tennessee, temperatures should pop into the 60’s and even lower 70’s. That will occur ONLY if the low passes into our area.
We will need to push the warm front into our region if we hope to reach those higher temperatures. It is south of the warm front where the air will be warmer.
GFS has the low passing well south of our region. Chilly temperatures if the GFS is correct.
Look at the NAM. NAM has the low pressure center passing into KY/TN. BIG temperature difference between the GFS and NAM
The severe weather risk will need to be monitored on Saturday. South of the warm front is where a few storms could produce severe weather.
If the warm front remains to our south, then we won’t have to worry about severe storms. This remains a question. Monitor updates on Saturday.
A few showers are possible Sunday morning. Dry weather is anticipated, otherwise. Cool on Sunday, but mild for Monday into Wednesday. Above normal temperatures.
Dry weather Monday through Tuesday night.
Rain chances may return towards Wednesday or Thursday and then again late in the weekend.
GFS for Wednesday. Green represents showers.
And here is the Sunday weather map. Perhaps another cold front.
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I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue. 2015 through current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
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I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas. I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
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There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
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