Friday morning update
Severe Weather Outlook
Friday and Friday night: A few storms storms are possible. The severe weather risk is small. A few storms could produce high winds along the Arkansas and Missouri border and then into the Missouri Bootheel and western Tennessee.
Saturday: There will be a risk for a few strong to severe storms over the Missouri Bootheel, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee. Monitor updates.
Saturday night and Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog
April 20, 2017
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain possible. Strong storms possible with gusty winds and small hail. Lightning, as well. Rain may diminish over our northern counties, but continue over the southern half of the region as a front stalls near the KY/TN border.
Temperatures: MO ~ 52 to 58 IL ~ 52 to 56 KY ~ 52 to 58 TN ~ 54 to 58
Winds: Becoming west and then north and northwest at 4 to 8 mph with gusts to 15 mph. Winds may change to north and northeast late at night.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Perhaps lightning.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates. Strong storms are possible. Locally heavy rain, as well. Isolated severe risk.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 80% TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. Rain is likely.
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April 21, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Cloudy. Cooler. Periods of showers. Thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 60 to 66 IL ~ 60 to 66 KY ~ 62 to 68 TN ~ 66 to 72
Winds: Northeast and east at 8 to 16 mph. Gusty, at times.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Periods of scattered to numerous showers and storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. Rain is possible.
Sunrise will be at 6:10 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:35 p.m.
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Showers likely. Some thunderstorms are possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 50 to 55 IL ~ 50 to 55 KY ~ 50 to 55 TN ~ 55 to 60
Winds: East and northeast at 8 to 16 mph with gusts above 20 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Perhaps lightning.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 90% IL ~ 90% KY ~ 90% TN ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous/widespread.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. Rain is likely.
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April 22, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Chilly. Widespread locally heavy morning rain and perhaps a few thunderstorms. Then, scattered showers during the afternoon hours. There could be a wide range of temperatures (depending on exactly where the low pressure center tracks). Most of the area will be chilly. Far southern counties could be a tad warmer.
Temperatures: MO ~ 48 to 60 (cooler north vs south) IL ~ 48 to 56 KY ~ 50 to 56 TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds: Winds will vary depending on your location in the area in relation to the track of the area of low pressure. North of the low the winds will be out of the east. South of the low winds will be from the south. Wind speeds of 8 to 16 mph with gusts to 20 mph. Winds will calm as the low passes overhead.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Downpours.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates. If the low tracks far enough north then some strong storms will be possible.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 80% before 12 pm and 60% after 12 pm IL ~ 90% before 12 pm and then 60% after 12 pm KY ~ 90% before 12 pm and 60% after 12 pm TN ~ 100% before 12 pm and then 60% after 12 pm
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread during the morning and then perhaps scattered during the afternoon hours.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have alternative plans. At this time, rain appears likely. Plan for rain and hope for the best. Some decrease in rain is possible during the afternoon hours. Keep that in mind.
Sunrise will be at 6:09 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:36 p.m.
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Scattered showers likely before midnight. Chilly. Breezy, at times.
Temperatures: MO ~ 44 to 48 IL ~ 44 to 48 KY ~ 44 to 48 TN ~ 44 to 48
Winds: Winds becoming north at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Perhaps lightning.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60% Rain chances decrease through the night.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered and patchy showers.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have alternative plans. It may rain (especially during the early evening)
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April 23, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Cooler. Breezy. I can’t rule out a shower behind our weekend storm system. Wrap around clouds are possible. Some question on cloud coverage.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 66 IL ~ 62 to 68 KY ~ 62 to 68 TN ~ 64 to 68
Winds: Northerly winds at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Possible some wet roadways. It might remain dry on Sunday, but a few wrap-around showers are possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:07 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:37 p.m.
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Clear and chilly.
Temperatures: MO ~ 44 to 48 IL ~ 44 to 48 KY ~ 44 to 48 TN ~ 44 to 48
Winds: North and northeast winds at 6 to 12 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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April 24, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Mild. Nice day anticipated.
Temperatures: MO ~ 68 to 74 IL ~ 68 to 74 KY ~ 68 to 74 TN ~ 68 to 74
Winds: Northerly winds at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:06 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:38 p.m.
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Clear and chilly.
Temperatures: MO ~ 48 to 52 IL ~ 48 to 52 KY ~ 48 to 52 TN ~ 48 to 54
Winds: North and northeast winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day
Severe thunderstorm outlook.
Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 60 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thursday night: A cold front moves into the local area. A band of showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front. Wind fields will be stronger with this system compared to the last. I can’t completely rule out severe weather, but the chances will probably be small. Lightning will be a concern for outdoor events. Monitor updates. I can’t rule out a couple of warnings.
Friday through Saturday: Periods of showers and thunderstorms will be with us into Saturday. The severe weather risk is small. If there were to be some severe storms then the Missouri Bootheel and western Tennessee would be the risk zone. Even there, the risk appears small. If the low were to track further north then the severe weather risk will increase. Again, the risk is low.
At this time, it appears the greater risk for severe weather will remain to our south.
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Weather analysis for the next few days:
Thursday night into the weekend:
Active weather over the coming days. The great news is that a severe weather outbreak is not anticipated for our local area. Yes, there could be some isolated severe storms on Thursday night, but the overall severe weather risk is small. The bad news is that we are going to have quite a bit of rain over the coming days. Many of you have outdoor events. Plan on rain and hope for the best. Have alternative plans.
Thursday night
A cold front will become stationary from northern Arkansas eastward into Kentucky and Tennessee. This front will be responsible for multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms between now and Saturday night.
Some of the rain could be heavy. I am forecasting widespread one to two inches of rain. If thunderstorms train over the same area then there will likely be higher totals. Some of the models show as much as three or four inches of rain. I will stick with the widespread one to two inches and then mention higher totals possible.
Flash flooding does not seem to be a big concern, although I can’t rule out isolated warnings. General field flooding will be a concern. Some ditches may overflow onto roadways, as well. As always, use caution.
Friday and Friday night
Periods of showers and thunderstorms will be with us on Friday and Friday night. Several waves of precipitation will likely bring locally heavy rain to our area.
Here is an animation GIF from the 3K NAM guidance. Watch how fast the heavier rain ends on Saturday morning. We are left with wrap around showers during the late morning and afternoon. Is it possible most of the precipitation occurs during the first half of the day? Yes, that is a possibility.
Saturday:
Rain is likely on Saturday. Widespread rain is anticipated. There could be some decrease in activity during the afternoon hours. Models have been trending towards the heavier precipitation falling before 12 pm.
Low confidence on that subject. Plan on rain and hope for the best.
Cool temperatures on Saturday. Some areas won’t move past 50 degrees. Struggle with the clouds and rain.
Check out the 3K NAM temperature forecast for Saturday. It actually keeps some areas in the 40’s!
I noticed the EC has the heaviest rain on Friday night into Saturday morning.
Let’s take a look at the EC maps. There are six hour rainfall totals.
Rainfall totals from 12 am to 6 am
Click to enlarge the image
Rainfall totals from 6 am to 12 pm
Rainfall totals from 12 pm to 6 pm
What is the probability of one inch of rain falling between now and Sunday?
What is the probability of two inches of rain falling between now and Sunday?
Here are my forecast probabilities for rainfall totals
Future-cast radar from the GFS guidance. These maps show you where the GFS model guidance anticipates rain. This is a lower resolution model. It makes the rain look more widespread than the higher resolution NAM guidance. I will post the NAM guidance below these maps.
7 am Saturday
Green represents rain. Dark green is heavier rain. Yellow is heavier, yet.
1 pm Saturday
7 pm Saturday
1 am Saturday
Let’s take a look at the higher resolution NAM guidance
Again, keep in mind, these are models. They are guidance and not gospel.
Friday 7 AM
Friday 10 am
Friday 1 pm
Friday 4 pm
Friday 7 pm
Friday 10 pm
Saturday 1 am
Saturday 4 am
Saturday 7 am
Saturday 10 am
Saturday 1 pm
Saturday 4 pm
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Let’s look at forecasted rainfall totals.
The high resolution 3K NAM drops quite a bit of rain in our region.
This won’t be exact. Take generalities from these maps. You get the general idea. Some areas could top two inches of rain. This is especially true if thunderstorms train over the same areas.
NOAA forecast totals
Click image to enlarge
Regional view
Zoomed in view
Another zoomed in view
Locally heavy rain is certainly possible.
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
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Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link—
National interactive radar: Click this link.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky. These are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Regional Radar
The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue. 2015 through current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC. I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.
I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas. I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
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- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
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