April 20, 2018: Somewhat milder today and tomorrow. Rain chances?

Future-cast radar. Timestamp upper left.

Plan on a rainy Sunday for many.

2018 Teddy Bear Fund Raiser Campaign!

The Shadow Angel Foundation is raising money for new teddy bears to be donated to Child Watch and PASAC of western Kentucky. This is our 15th year of donating new bears to these two organizations.

This is a matching fundraiser. That means your donation is doubled.

If you would like to help then follow this link

https://www.youcaring.com/teddybearcampaign

April 18, 2018

The KPAH WSR-88D Doppler radar operated by the NOAA National Weather Service in Paducah,
KY will be down for a little over three weeks for the repair of a major mechanical component.

An engineering team from the Radar Operations Center (ROC) in Norman, Oklahoma, determined
that the bull gear, the primary gear for turning the radar antenna, has failed. This repair will
require 12,000 to 15,000 pounds of equipment and a six-person team from the ROC to restore
the radar. At this time, the team anticipates repairs being completed during the next couple of
weeks with the radar returning to service by May 11th.

During the downtime, adjacent NWS supporting radars include:
Springfield, MO (KSGF)
St. Louis, MO (KLSX)
Lincoln, IL (KILX)
Indianapolis, IN (KIND)
Louisville, KY (KLVX)
Evansville, IN (KVWX)
Fort Campbell, KY (KHPX)
Nashville, TN (KOHX)
Memphis, TN (KNQA)
Little Rock, AR (KLZK).

The Paducah, KY WSR-88D is 23 years old and part of a network of 159 operational radars. The
radars are supported by three federal agencies: NOAA National Weather Service, United States
Air Force, and the Federal Aviation Administration. The Radar Operations Center provides
lifecycle management and support for all WSR-88Ds.

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Week one, two, three and four temperature and precipitation outlooks.
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Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.

WWW.WEATHERTALK.COM subscribers, here is my day to day schedule for your weather products.

April 20, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Mild.
Temperatures: MO ~ 58 to 64 IL ~ 58 to 62 KY ~ 60 to 64 TN ~ 60 to 64
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: East and northeast 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise: 6:13 AM

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Increasing clouds. Cool.
Temperatures: MO ~ 38 to 42 IL ~ 38 to 44 KY ~ 40 to 44 TN ~ 42 to 44
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: Northeast and east at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:33 PM

April 21, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Mild. A 20% of a late afternoon shower.
Temperatures: MO ~ 64 to 68 IL ~ 64 to 68 KY ~ 64 to 68 TN ~ 64 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Winds: East 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise: 6:12 AM

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Scattered showers developing, especially late.
Temperatures: MO ~ 45 to 50 IL ~ 44 to 48 KY ~ 45 to 50 TN ~ 45 to 50
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered, esp late
Winds: East and northeast at 4 to 8 mph with gusts to 15 mph late
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No, but monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:34 PM

April 22, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Rain likely. Coverage of rain may be most numerous across the southern half of the region. There remain some questions about the track of the area of low pressure. If you have outdoor plans on Sunday then monitor updates. There will be rain on radar.
Temperatures: MO ~ 58 to 64 IL ~ 56 to 62 KY ~ 58 to 62 TN ~ 58 to 62
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 90% (Bootheel) 50% northern counties of southeast Missouri IL ~ 60% KY ~ 80% TN ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to scattered north. Numerous across the rest of the region.
Winds: East at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? The southern half of the region should have a plan B and everyone else should keep an eye on radar and monitor forecast updates.
Sunrise: 6:10 AM

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Cooler. Rain likely. Greatest coverage of rain south vs north. That means lower chances from Carbondale, Illinois, northward. Greater chances Carbondale, Illinois, southward.
Temperatures: MO ~ 45 to 50 IL ~ 45 to 50 KY ~ 45 to 50 TN ~ 46 to 52
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 80% TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous.
Winds: East and northeast at 6 to 12 mph and gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Sunset: 7:35 PM

April 23, 2018
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers.
Temperatures: MO ~ 58 to 64 IL ~ 58 to 64 KY ~ 58 to 64 TN ~ 58 to 64
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous.
Winds: East and northeast at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Sunrise: 6:09 AM

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Decreasing clouds. A shower possible. Cool.
Temperatures: MO ~ 46 to 52 IL ~ 46 to 52 KY ~ 46 to 52 TN ~ 46 to 52
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Winds: East at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Sunset: 7:36 PM

April 24, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Quite a few clouds.
Temperatures: MO ~ 63 to 66 IL ~ 63 to 66 KY ~ 63 to 66 TN ~ 63 to 66
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to Isolated
Winds: Variable at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise: 6:08 AM

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Showers possible. Cool.
Temperatures: MO ~ 42 to 46 IL ~ 42 to 46 KY ~ 44 to 48 TN ~ 45 to 50
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps scattered
Winds: North at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:37 PM

April 25, 2018
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Mild. A chance of a shower during the morning.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 68 IL ~ 65 to 68 KY ~ 65 to 68 TN ~ 65 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Winds: Northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise: 6:07 AM

Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Cool.
Temperatures: MO ~ 44 to 48 IL ~ 44 to 48 KY ~ 46 to 48 TN ~ 48 to 50
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: West at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:38 PM

RAIN TOTALS

The next chance of rain will arrive late Saturday night into Monday.

Guidance has started to zero in on a path for the area of low pressure that should bring some showers to the region.

The low will pass to our south. That places us on the cool side of the system.

Rain showers are possible in or near our region late Saturday night and more likely Sunday into Sunday night/Monday.

The best chance of rain will be along the Missouri/Arkansas border and the Kentucky/Tennessee border.

Here is the current NOAA rainfall forecast. Most of this would fall late Saturday night into Monday.

Notice the tight gradient. Southern counties with the best chance of measurable rainfall.

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The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

Friday and Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated.

Sunday into Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.

Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

Live lightning data: Click here.

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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Weather Headlines

Dry weather today through Saturday. Calm.
Frost possible tonight if the winds subside
Friday and Saturday will be nice. Dry.
Watching rain chances late Saturday night into Monday.

Calm weather today. We are off to a frosty start but will warm as the day wears on.

You can expect highs mostly in the upper 50’s to middle 60’s across the region. Still below the season norms.

Calm weather will last into Saturday. We will see increasing clouds over the next 24 to 36 hours. That will be in response to a system will bring rain showers to the region later this weekend.

If you have outdoor plans Sunday into Monday morning then you will want to monitor radars and updates. Rain is likely to push back into our forecast.

The greatest rain coverage, from this event, will be across our southern counties. That will include everyone from Cape Girardeau, Missouri, to Vienna, Illinois, to Madisonville, Kentucky. Rain chances along and south of that line will likely range from 60% to 70%. Areas to the north of that line may also experience some showers, but the coverage is not anticipated to be as great.

The good news is that severe weather is not a concern.

Let’s take a look at the GFS and the GEM model guidance. Two different models. They have similar ideas concerning our rain chances.

The timestamp is located in the upper-left portion of the animation.

GFS

GEM

Next week looks to be unsettled. We may have a few days with light rain or rain chances. Low confidence in the rain coverage. See the detailed forecast at the top of the page.

For now, Monday through Wednesday has rain chances. Those chances may need adjusting as confidence in the eventual forecast increases.

Temperatures next week will likely remain slightly below normal. Perhaps a bit warmer as we move into Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.

Severe weather is not anticipated through next Wednesday.

Weather Brains is a weekly podcast/video for those who love weather and want more!

Weather Brains episode number 638

Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is the Associate Director at the Extreme Events Institute at Florida International University. Erik Salna, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

Extremes: 95 at Death Valley, CA, and 9 at Valentine, NE
Wet weekend over Southeast US
A chilly start to the week with 30s into Southeast US
The potential of severe storms Friday into Saturday
Tornadoes touch down in Carolinas and Virginia
Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
and more!

Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.

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