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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary quite a bit across the region. These are averages.
Monday – Any precipitation left from Sunday night will come to an end. Morning clouds giving way to partly cloudy sky conditions. Highs in the 60’s. West/northwest winds at 10 mph in the morning and gusty at 10-20 mph late morning into the afternoon hours.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Morning School Bus Stop Weather – Cloudy and cool. Temperatures in the 50’s. Northwest winds at 10 mph.
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Afternoon School Bus Stop Weather – Partly cloudy and cool. Highs in the 60’s. West/northwest winds at 10-20 mph.
Monday night – Mostly clear. Cooler. Lows in the upper 30’s to lower 40’s. Light winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Tuesday – Partly cloudy. A period of clouds moving in from the north. Perhaps a light shower late in the day along a cold front. Highs in the 60’s. Light winds. West at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Tuesday night – Early clouds giving way to partly cloudy sky conditions. Chance for a light shower. Cool. Lows in the 40’s. Winds becoming north/northwest at 10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Wednesday – Some clouds. Chance for a light shower. Highs in the 60’s. My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Transamerica Agency Network Paducah District – you can visit their Facebook page here and their home page here
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Cooler weather will dominate the upcoming week
2. Next real chance of rain will be Friday/Saturday
3. Chance for some light rain on/off this week. But, overall amounts will be light (thinking less than 0.25″. Not expecting heavy weather.
Storms roller through on Sunday night with heavy rain, gusty winds, a few reports of large hail, and lots of lightning. Severe weather concerns were fairly small on Sunday, but a few reports of severe storms were received by the NWS. Just about what was forecast!
A calmer few days ahead of us. We have a couple of cold fronts that will move through the region. One arrives on Tuesday and another around Wednesday. Then a warm front nears our region on Friday.
I can’t rule out light showers with each front, but the best chance will hold off until Friday/Saturday when a larger system moves our way.
Temperatures will be below normal this week. I think we avoid frost, but will monitor that subject. Some 30’s likely over the coming nights.
Highs will mainly be in the 60’s. It won’t feel like late April.
Here is the Tuesday afternoon weather map. BIG low up in Canada. That keeps our winds mainly from the northwest. You can see hints of purple in the region. That is light rain.
Then on Tuesday evening a band of light showers forms along the cold front. Purple area is light rain.
Of some interest is the NAM for Wednesday night. It attempts to pop a bit more precipitation than I was thinking. But, we will see. Still some time for adjustments.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Some of the rivers are again near crest. Others have a bit to go.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
The wild card tells you where the uncertainties are in the forecast
Wild card in this forecast – lows for the upcoming week. Can someone dip into the 30’s? Possible…certainly possible. Not late April weather.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is ZERO (once we get through Sunday night)
Wednesday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe storms not anticipated
Thursday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe storms not anticipated
Friday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe storms not anticipated
Saturday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe storms not anticipated
Sunday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe storms not anticipated
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Light rain chances on Tuesday and perhaps Wednesday night/Thursday. Totals will be a trace to less than 0.25″.
A larger system is possible towards Friday/Saturday. Monitor updates on rainfall totals for that event. Long way off.
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Cooler than normal temperatures for the rest of the week. Highs in the 60’s and lows in the upper 30’s to middle 40’s. Won’t feel much like late April. Go figure. Same pattern we have been in for months and months. As long as those warm waters remain off the Pacific Coast then our weather won’t change.
The good news is that means severe weather risk is low. Will need to monitor Friday night into Saturday as an area of low pressure moves out of the southwest United States. But, it may track to our south (more like February and early March).
Unsettled weather in general over the coming 10-15 days. On and off rain and storm chances. Our pattern keeps on keeping on!
Perhaps a larger system around Friday or Saturday – seen here
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Please visit your local National Weather Service Office by clicking here. The National Weather Service Office, for our region, is located in Paducah, Kentucky. They have a lot of maps and information on their site. Local people…local forecasters who care about our region.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog
Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
The Weather Observatory
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions
Marion, Illinois
WPSD TV 6 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Kentucky Road Conditions & Kentucky Highway and Interstate Cameras
Downtown Paducah, Kentucky
Benton, Kentucky Tower Camera – Click here for full view
Benton, Kentucky
I24 Paducah, Kentucky
I24 Mile Point 9 – Paducah, KY
I24 – Mile Point 3 Paducah, Kentucky
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
