Good morning
Clouds and rain are lingering. Clouds are our friend today. Hope they stick around. That helps keep severe chances somewhat less.
Monitor updates today. Severe storms are not out of the question as a cold front moves through after 2 or 3 pm into the evening.
I will be closely monitoring.
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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary quite a bit across the region. These are averages.
The rest of tonight (Saturday night) – Thunderstorms overspreading the region. Some heavy rain possible. Lows in the 60’s with east winds at 10 mph. Chance of rain 100%.
Sunday – Morning precipitation coming to an end. Quite a few clouds during the afternoon. New storms could form during the afternoon hours. Highs will be in the 70’s. Variable winds at 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 70% in the morning and 40% in the afternoon.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Storms should be moving out during the morning. More storms late in the day. On and off chances, so monitor updates if you have outdoor events.
Sunday night – A few thunderstorms possible as a cold front moves through. Lows in the 50’s by Monday morning. Winds becoming west/northwest at 10-15 mph. Monitor updates today concerning the potential of a few strong storms this evening into tonight. Chance of storms 70%.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Yes. Have a plan B. Storms are possible.
Monday – A mix of sun and clouds. Cooler. Highs only in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s. West/northwest winds at 10 mph. 20% chance for a lingering shower on Monday morning.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Weather should be okay.
Monday night – A few evening clouds and then clearing. Cool. Lows in the 40’s. West/northwest winds at 10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Weather should be okay.
Tuesday – Partly cloudy. Highs in the 60’s. West winds at 10 mph. A 10% chance for a light shower over Missouri.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. The weather should be okay with only a tiny chance for a shower (Missouri).
Sunday Short-Term Forecast Graphic
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Thunderstorms come to an end on Sunday morning – then just scattered precipitation possible into the afternoon hours
2. Another round of thunderstorms will be possible Sunday afternoon and night.
3. Cooler on Monday.
4. More rain possible later this week
Our southwest storm system is finally upon us. I have been talking about this system during the past week. It stalled out in the southwest. But, now it is moving.
Here is the system on IR Satellite. You can see the pin-wheel look to the clouds over the United States. On this satellite you can see the center of the upper level system is centered over Colorado and northern New Mexico. This is as of Saturday afternoon.
You can also see that on this radar image (Saturday afternoon). Curl to the system.
We are going to have widespread showers and thunderstorms to deal with tonight into Sunday morning. A second round is possible on Sunday afternoon and night. Mixed ideas on whether severe weather will be possible. Instability is in question and the track of the second low is questionable. Better chances for some severe storms over Arkansas and perhaps western Tennessee and lesser chances further north.
Locally heavy rainfall amounts will be possible with both rounds of precipitation. Before all is said and done I suspect most areas will have picked up 0.50″-1.00″ of rain. Pockets of greater than 2″ will occur in areas where the heaviest storms train repeatedly. Exceeding the 1.5-2″ range will be highly dependent on the second round of storms forming on Sunday afternoon and night.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here –
Instability should be on the increase by Sunday afternoon and evening. A warm front will be placed across our northern counties. South of the warm front the air will be unstable. As a cold front sweeps into the region (Sunday night) we can expect a band of showers and thunderstorms to develop along it. The storms will first develop over Missouri and Arkansas. The storms will then move eastward into Illinois and Kentucky/Tennessee.
Some of the latest data attempts to pop thunderstorms as early as the middle of the afternoon on Sunday. If this is the case then we will need to monitor that time-frame, as well.
Confidence in the timing of storms on Sunday is lower than normal (for the afternoon into the overnight hours).
If we can achieve maximum instability on Sunday afternoon and evening then a few storms could become severe. Lower than normal confidence on this happening. It appears the best CAPE and wind fields might end up over Arkansas and western Tennessee. But, data is mixed on this subject.
This chart here shows CAPE values. CAPE is basically energy in the atmosphere for thunderstorms. You can see a sharp cut-off from north to south in the CAPE numbers
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Rain will come to an end by Monday morning. That will leave us with a few clouds and cooler temperatures. As a matter of fact, temperatures may end up below normal for much of the new work week. Go figure. Same pattern we have been in forever and a day.
Highs for Sunday
Monday morning lows
Monday high temperatures
See the extended discussion for details on the mid-week through end of week period.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
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Storms. Overnight storms on Saturday will come to an end on Sunday morning. Another round of storms is likely to push into the region late on Sunday into Sunday night. These storms will move out of Missouri and Arkansas. Some of the storms could be on the heavy side, although confidence is lower than normal on the severe weather risk.
Overall severe weather risk at any given location is small.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Yes. Monitor updates as some of the storms along the cold front could produce strong weather on Sunday afternoon (late) and especially Sunday night. I can’t rule out a few reports of hail or high winds (if we can achieve the higher instability levels depicted on some data)
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is THREE. Severe storms are possible later this afternoon into tonight. A few of the storms could produce hail and strong winds. Monitor updates, lower than normal confidence as to whether we will actually have a few severe storms.
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Sunday Severe Weather Outlook – A few Severe storms possible
Monday Severe Weather Outlook – No severe storms
Tuesday Severe Weather Outlook – No severe storms
Wednesday Severe Weather Outlook – No severe storms
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Rainfall totals from Saturday night through Monday morning will be in the 0.50″-1.00″ range across much of the area. Pockets of 1-2″ will likely occur. Areas that receive repeatedly (training) thunderstorms could pick up more than 2″ of rain.
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Cooler weather will be the general rule for the upcoming week. Below normal temperatures are expected, overall.
Data indicates some light showers possible Tuesday afternoon and night. Appears to be scattered, at best. I will monitor it. Either way, does not look to be much precipitation if it occurs at all.
Another storm system may approach our region towards Wednesday/Thursday. If so then more rain chances will need to be placed in the forecast.
I am watching another system towards Friday night into Saturday night. Perhaps the best signal for rain will be with the late week system. The system could track pretty far south.
The bottom line is that we may have some additional chances for precipitation this week. I know the farmers would like some dry days.
All of the data indicates below normal temperatures over much of the upcoming week and into the first few days of May. Same pattern we have been in for months on end. Northwest flow just keeps returning.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
For the most up to date maps – click here
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Please visit your local National Weather Service Office by clicking here. The National Weather Service Office, for our region, is located in Paducah, Kentucky. They have a lot of maps and information on their site. Local people…local forecasters who care about our region.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog
Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
The Weather Observatory
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions
Marion, Illinois
WPSD TV 6 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Kentucky Road Conditions & Kentucky Highway and Interstate Cameras
Downtown Paducah, Kentucky
Benton, Kentucky Tower Camera – Click here for full view
Benton, Kentucky
I24 Paducah, Kentucky
I24 Mile Point 9 – Paducah, KY
I24 – Mile Point 3 Paducah, Kentucky
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
