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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary quite a bit across the region. These are averages.
Saturday – Partly sunny. A 30% chance for showers and thunderstorms between 7 am and 4 pm. Rain chances increase dramatically on Saturday evening and night. Locally heavy rain and lightning with any storms that form. Highs will be in the 70’s. Southerly winds at 10-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars. The most widespread part of the system will arrive Saturday night.
Saturday night – Cloudy. Widespread showers and thunderstorms moving in from the west/southwest. Locally heavy rain and frequent lightning possible. Best chance of showers and storms will likely be from 8 pm onward (for southern IL and western KY). Perhaps a bit earlier over southwest counties in SE MO and west TN. Lows will be in the 60’s. Southwest winds at 10-15 mph. Gusty near storms.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. It is going to rain.
Sunday – Mostly cloudy early in the day and then partly cloudy. A chance for early morning showers and storms. A dry spell late morning into early afternoon is possible. New storms forming from the west/southwest after 2 pm. Chances increase considerably the later as evening approaches. Some storms could be on the heavy side. Highs will be mainly in the 60’s for southern Illinois to perhaps middle 70’s over southern counties. Southeast winds at 10-15 mph becoming west/southwest at 10 mph. Gusty near storms.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low on the morning forecast and medium from afternoon on
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars. On and off rain chances are possible Sunday morning and then again Sunday evening and night.
Sunday night – Showers and locally heavy thunderstorms. Severe thunderstorms possible with hail and high winds. Lows in the middle 50’s to lower 60’s. Variable winds at 10 mph. Gusty near storms.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. It is going to rain.
Monday – Precipitation coming to an end on Monday morning. Partly cloudy. Cooler. Highs in the upper 50’s to middle 60’s. West/northwest winds at 10-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Maybe a few remaining showers on Monday morning. Otherwise, should be dry.
Saturday’s hour by hour
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Widespread rain and storms on Saturday evening/night
2. Another widespread rain/storm event on Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Monitor timing of the event. Maybe a couple of severe storms, as well (Sunday might end up being a Weather Aware Day)
3. Cooler by Monday
4. More unsettled weather later next week
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
The big story over the next 2 days will be our southwest storm system finally pushing into our region. This system has been stuck over the Rockies and southwest for the past week. That is why we have had periodic showers and thunderstorms.
The good news is that most of Saturday should remain dry in the region (from 7 am through 3 or 4 pm). A few days ago that was a question mark. But, now we know that the storm system has slowed down a bit. Not saying there can’t be a shower in the region tomorrow, but the best chances are Saturday night.
This system will pull into our region on Saturday afternoon and night. Once the system moves into our region we will experience widespread showers and thunderstorms. I am not expecting severe weather on Saturday or Saturday night. Storms will, however, produce locally heavy rain and gusty winds. Keep that in mind if you are out camping.
Let’s take a glance at the future-cast radar for Saturday evening. The general idea for you to keep in mind is that the later into the evening you go…the better the chance you will experience some showers and storms (the system has slowed down by about 2-4 hours from what I was thinking a day or two ago). Storms will move in from the south/southwest.
This is the future-cast radar (what radar might look like) around 4 pm Saturday evening.
Then around 6 pm Saturday evening
Then around 7 pm Saturday evening
Then later into the night (11 pm to 12 am)
A second system will move through the region on Sunday afternoon and night. This system will have a bit more instability to work with. Wind fields aloft will also increase on Sunday evening. The combination of the two could mean a few storms producing hail and high winds. The overall severe weather risk is fairly small at any given location. But, there might be a few severe thunderstorm warnings. My confidence that some severe weather will occur is increasing.
Concerns on Sunday would be from 3 pm onward for southeast Missouri and northeast Arkansas and into the evening and overnight hours for the rest of the area. Still a day away and time for adjustments on the timing.
What is certain (high confidence) is that we will experience two periods of time when widespread showers and storms will move through the region. One being Saturday night and one being Sunday night.
There are questions as to how much precipitation will still be around on Sunday morning and early afternoon. Believe most of the precipitation will be moving out on Sunday morning. It will linger the longest over eastern and northeastern counties.
Let’s look at some of the maps concerning Sunday’s severe weather threat. My main concern is going to be large hail, damaging thunderstorm winds, and even an isolated tornado. Still some time for changes/adjustments.
CAPE values (remember that CAPE is energy) spike on Sunday evening. Plenty of CAPE available for severe storms (if this model is correct)
850 MB wind fields increase considerably on Sunday evening and night. This is another ingredient for severe weather.
Surface wind gusts also increase quite a bit on Sunday evening and night. Another ingredient for severe storms. You can visualize the warm front across parts of southern Illinois into southern Indiana. See where the warm colors end? That is the warm front.
EHI values are not too shabby over our region. These are the 0-1 km EHI values. EHI values are used to determine spin in the atmosphere. The higher the numbers the better chances for a tornado or two.
EHI numbers from 0-3 km’s. Plenty high for some severe thunderstorms. Click images for a larger view.
The NAM model and the GFS try to develop a weak low over southern Missouri on Sunday evening. If that happens then our severe risk increases because wind shear would increase.
There are a lot of variables to monitor for Sunday’s severe weather potential. The time frame of concern would be 3 pm to 2 am.
Future-cast radar for Sunday evening shows a line of supercell thunderstorms or a squall line moving through the region
Sunday might end up being a Weather Aware Day. Stay tuned.
Monday we will dry out, finally. There will be a few showers remaining on radar on Monday morning, but overall we will be drying out.
See the long range part of the blog for additional rain/storm chances next week.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
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I continue to try and pin down the best chances for precipitation on Saturday and Sunday. At any given time there will be a 30%-40% chance for showers and storms in the area. Rain chances increase considerably on Saturday night and Sunday afternoon/night.
Storms on Saturday and Sunday could produce locally heavy rain and lightning. It does appear a couple of storms could even become severe on Sunday afternoon and night. Low confidence on the severe weather chances. Monitor updates, as always.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Umbrella weather over the coming 2 day period. On and off rain/storm chances. Most likely period will be Saturday evening and night and then again later on Sunday into Sunday night. It won’t rain all of the time, but on and off chances as a couple of storm systems move through the area.
The wild card tells you where the uncertainties are in the forecast
Wild card in this forecast – timing, timing, timing of rain chances on Saturday. Big question mark on what time the most widespread band of showers and storms will sweep through the area on Saturday evening and night. I know many of you have outdoors plans. Monitor radars.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is TWO (I might need to upgrade to a three for Sunday night – monitor updates). A couple of storms could become severe, especially on Sunday afternoon and night. Otherwise, heavy downpours and frequent lightning will likely occur with storms over the next 48 hours.
Sunday Severe Weather Outlook – A few storms could become severe. Monitor updates.
Monday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe weather is not anticipated
Tuesday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe weather is not anticipated
Wednesday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe weather is not anticipated
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
As always, rainfall amounts are going to vary across the region. I believe between Saturday evening and Monday morning that most of the area will pick up 0.50″-1.00″ of rain. Some locations will pick up 1-2″ of precipitation. Where the heaviest thunderstorms track will determine who picks up the big amounts.
Also note…some places could exceed 2″ of rain. This is especially true if some severe storms develop on Sunday evening and night.
Official rainfall forecast
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Well, if you are tired of rain chances then you will just want to ignore this part of the update. Additional storms are possible towards the middle and end of the new work week. Of course that is still many days away, so we can hold out some hope that the forecast changes.
Here are the GFS model charts for Thursday through Saturday. Some heavy rain and storms will occur if this verifies. As always, we will have to monitor for severe weather chances, as well.
The good news is that perhaps most of Monday into Wednesday will be dry. Let’s cross fingers. I know farmers need to get some work finished.
I looked over several data sets today and noticed that some of them try to bring at least a 30%-40% chance of showers back into the region on Tuesday and Wednesday. I will monitor those days for forecast changes.
The purple and blue colors represent rain and storms. This first image is for Wednesday night at 10 pm to midnight. Images are from wright-weather.com
This next image is for Friday. If this is correct then we have to think about severe weather, as well. Deep area of low pressure to our west and it is moving east.
This next image is for Saturday.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
For the most up to date maps – click here
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Please visit your local National Weather Service Office by clicking here. The National Weather Service Office, for our region, is located in Paducah, Kentucky. They have a lot of maps and information on their site. Local people…local forecasters who care about our region.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog
Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
The Weather Observatory
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions
Marion, Illinois
WPSD TV 6 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Kentucky Road Conditions & Kentucky Highway and Interstate Cameras
Downtown Paducah, Kentucky
Benton, Kentucky Tower Camera – Click here for full view
Benton, Kentucky
I24 Paducah, Kentucky
I24 Mile Point 9 – Paducah, KY
I24 – Mile Point 3 Paducah, Kentucky
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
