Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

Tuesday morning update

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Tuesday, April 18th:

 

Do you realize we have made it through most of April with very little in the way of severe weather?  Remember late February and March?  Who could forget it.  We had 21+ tornadoes in the local area.

 

A rough start does not always mean a rough spring.  We have a LONG way to go, however, with spring.  April, May, and June are our peak severe weather months.

 

Let’s be thankful for what we have, thus far!  I usually count down the weeks in spring (same as winter).  We have X number of weeks when my anxiety level is higher than usual. 

 

Today and tonight:

 

A few showers and thunderstorms are possible today (there have already been some on radar).  Isolated to scattered in coverage.  I capped the new update at 30%.  That means some rain on radar, but many areas will remain dry.

 

Speaking of probabilities!  I recently heard someone say that it was raining outside.  It was one of those days with scattered storms.  The forecast called for a 20% for rain.  Someone said that the forecast must have been wrong, because there was only a 20% for rain and yet, it was raining.  They then said, looks like a 100% chance for me.

 

This is one reason I strongly dislike probabilities.  I know some meteorologists won’t use them (I didn’t for a long time).  A 20% chance for showers and storms actually does mean someone will end up with rain.  Odds, however, favor your location staying dry.  A 20% for rain typically means a 100%  chance for someone.

 

Sidetrack alert 🙂

 

Back to now

 

It will be mild today with high temperatures in the 70’s.  Most areas will top out in the 72 to 78 degree range.  Mild with above normal temperatures.

 

Small shower chances tonight and Wednesday.  Best chance would be in Tennessee and east of LBL.  Even there, chances are not all that great.

 

Two systems to closely monitor from Thursday into the weekend.

 

A cold front will push into the area on Thursday and Thursday night.  This front should spark a band of showers and thunderstorms.  There is some question on both coverage and intensity.

 

The atmosphere will be moderately unstable on Thursday.  That means that a few of the thunderstorms could be intense.  The risk for severe weather is not zero, but is not all that great either.  I am going to continue to monitor trends.

 

I will probably, for now at least, cap rain chances at 50% to 60%.  I will look over today’s data to see if those numbers need adjusting.

 

Bottom line for Thursday is that you should plan on some precipitation on radar.

 

A much larger system is taking shape for Friday into Saturday night.  The focus will likely end up on Saturday.

 

Showers and storms will be possible, as a front stalls to our south, on Friday.  I will cap chances at 40% (for now at least).  That number may need adjusting.  This will depend on where the front stalls.  Highest rain chances will probably be over the southern half of the area.  Southern half would include areas from Poplar Bluff, Missouri, towards Cape Girardeau, Missouri, towards Vienna, Illinois, and then towards Madisonville, Kentucky.

 

Rain and storm chances increase dramatically on Friday night and especially Saturday/Saturday night.

 

Widespread rain is anticipated as an area of low pressure takes shape over Oklahoma and Texas.  The center of low pressure then moves into Arkansas on Saturday.  Where it goes from there is key to our forecast.

 

If the low remains to our south then we will be on the cooler side of the cyclone.  That means rain and perhaps some lightning.  Heavy rain, as well.

 

If the low tracks directly across our region then areas to the south and east of the low will have a risk for strong thunderstorms.  Areas to the north and west of the low will have rain and gusty winds.

 

If the low tracks north of my forecast counties then the risk for severe weather increases.

 

It is still too soon to know where the low will track.

 

I am leaning for the low to track over our area.

 

Rainfall totals from now through Saturday night will likely range from one to two inches.  Higher totals are possible if thunderstorms occur.

 

Sunday will probably be cooler (behind the system).  A few patchy showers are possible on Sunday, as well. 

 

Have a wonderful day.
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Here is the GFS rainfall totals for FRI through SUN

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Need to track the rain?

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link—

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog
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April 17, 2017
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy.  A few evening showers and storms will be possible.  Rain chances will be diminishing overnight.  Cool temperatures.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 50 to 56   IL ~ 50 to 56    KY ~ 52 to 58     TN ~ 54 to 58
Winds: East and northeast at 8 to 16 mph.  Gusty winds, at times.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Perhaps lightning.
Is severe weather expected?  Not at this time.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%  IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%   TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered (mostly early)
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars.  There could be some spotty showers/storms in the evening.

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April 18, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast:  A mix of sun and clouds.  A 30% for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm.  Chances might be a tad higher from the Missouri Bootheel into Kentucky and Tennessee.
Temperatures:   MO ~  74 to 78     IL ~ 74 to 78     KY ~ 74 to 78    TN ~ 74 to 78
Winds:  Northeast and east winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning and wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected?  No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%   KY ~ 40%   TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated to spotty.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars.
Sunrise will be at 6:14 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:32 p.m.

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.  A slight chance for evening storms over Kentucky and Tennessee.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 60 to 65   IL ~ 60 to 65    KY ~ 60 to 65     TN ~ 60 to 65
Winds: East winds becoming south and southeast at 4 to 8 mph.  Gusty winds from time to time.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Perhaps lightning.
Is severe weather expected?  No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%  IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 20%   TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars.

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April 19, 2017
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast:  A mix of sun and clouds.  Warm for April. Isolated to scattered storms possible (mainly over KY/TN)
Temperatures:   MO ~  78 to 84     IL ~ 78 to 84     KY ~ 78 to 84     TN ~ 78 to 84
Winds:  South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected?  No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%  IL ~ 20%   KY ~ 30%   TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated to perhaps spotty
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars
Sunrise will be at 6:12 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:33 p.m.

Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.  Isolated storm possible (may remain completely dry).
Temperatures:  MO ~ 62 to 65   IL ~ 62 to 65     KY ~ 62 to 65     TN ~ 62 to 65
Winds: South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph.  Winds may become gusty overnight with gusts above 20 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Perhaps lightning.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%  IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 20%   TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated (if anything at all)
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars.

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April 20, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Cloudy.  An increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms.  Precipitation will move in from the north/northwest and spread south/southeast.  Some questions remain on coverage.
Temperatures:   MO ~  75 to 80     IL ~ 75 to 80     KY ~ 75 to 80     TN ~ 75 to 80
Winds:  South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Monitor updates concerning strong storms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected?  A few strong storms possible.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%  IL ~ 60%   KY ~ 60%   TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered to perhaps numerous.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updated forecasts and radars.  Rain is likely during at least part of the day. 
Sunrise will be at 6:11 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:34 p.m.

Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly to mostly cloudy.  A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 48 to 54   IL ~ 48 to 54     KY ~ 50 to 55     TN ~ 50 to 55
Winds: Becoming west and then north and northwest at 4 to 8 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Perhaps lightning.
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%  IL ~ 60%    KY ~ 60%   TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps numerous.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updates.

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April 21, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Increasing clouds.  Cooler.   A chance for showers and some thunderstorms.
Temperatures:   MO ~  58 to 64     IL ~ 58 to 64     KY ~ 60 to 65     TN ~ 60 to 65
Winds:  Northeast and east at 8 to 16 mph.  Gusty, at times.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%  IL ~ 50%   KY ~ 50%   TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered to perhaps numerous.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updates.  Rain is possible.
Sunrise will be at 6:10 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:35 p.m.

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms likely.  Temperatures may rise late at night.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 52 to 60   IL ~ 52 to 58     KY ~ 54 to 60     TN ~ 54 to 60
Winds: East at 8 to 16 mph with gusts above 20 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Perhaps lightning.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%  IL ~ 60%    KY ~ 60%   TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps numerous.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updates.

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April 22, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Cloudy.  Breezy.  Showers and thunderstorms likely.  Locally heavy rain possible.  WIDE range of temperatures from north to south.
Temperatures:   MO ~  56 to 74   IL ~ 56 to 75     KY ~ 60 to 72     TN ~ 68 to 74
Winds:  Winds will vary depending on your location in the area in relation to the track of the area of low pressure.  North of the low the winds will be out of the east.  South of the low winds will be from the south.  Wind speeds of 15 to 30 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Downpours.  Monitor updates concerning thunderstorms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates.  If the low tracks far enough north then some strong storms will be possible.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 70%    IL ~ 70%    KY ~ 70%    TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have alternative plans.  At this time, rain appears likely.  Plan for rain and hope for the best. 
Sunrise will be at 6:09 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:36 p.m.

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms likely.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 48 to 55   IL ~ 48 to 55     KY ~ 50 to 56     TN ~ 52 to 56
Winds: Winds  becoming north and northwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Gusty winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Perhaps lightning.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%  IL ~ 60%    KY ~ 60%   TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps numerous.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have alternative plans.  It may rain.

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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day

Severe thunderstorm outlook.

Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 60 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

Monday night: A few storms may remain in the area on Monday night.  If storms do linger then lightning would be the main concern.  I suspect many areas will remain dry on Monday night (especially after evening activity comes to an end).  Severe weather is not anticipated.

Tuesday into Wednesday night:  I can’t rule out some spotty thunderstorms.  Storms could produce pea to dime size hail, lightning, downpours, and 30 to 40 mph winds.  There is some question as to whether storms will develop.  I have 20 to 30% chances through this time frame.

Thursday and Thursday night:  A few thunderstorms are possible.  A cold front will move into the region from the northwest.  The front may stall over our region.  At this time, the severe weather risk appears minimal.  Monitor updates.

Friday through Sunday:  Another system will move through the area on Friday into the weekend.  The track of the area of low pressure will be key to our weather conditions.  If the low tracks to the north then strong storms are possible.  If the low tracks to our south then thunderstorms are possible, but severe weather concerns would be minimal.

Monitor updates concerning the weekend storm system.

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Weather analysis for the next few days:

Active pattern is once again unfolding.  This has been the pattern for several months.  We have a week or two of active weather and then it is quiet for a week.  Then, we return to active weather.

The next 7 to 14 days will deliver several chances for showers and thunderstorms.  Some of the rain could be heavy.

Our Monday system will push south and east during the evening hours.  A few showers and storms will be possible overnight, but coverage will be diminishing.

A few spotty storms are possible on Tuesday into Wednesday night.  The coverage should be isolated to perhaps scattered.  There are some signals that western Kentucky and western Tennessee will have slightly higher chances than Missouri and Illinois.  Either way, it appears if storms do develop they would not be widespread.

We will be warm on Tuesday and Wednesday.  If storms do develop then lightning would be a concern.  Storms could also produce small hail and gusty winds.  Downpours, of course.

Tuesday high temperature map

Wednesday high temperature map

Speaking of downpours, portions of the region received 3 to 5 inches of rain over the last 48 hours.  Some locations received no measurable rain.  We have entered that time of the year when thunderstorms can produce pockets of very heavy rain.  Keep that in mind when reading forecasts.  Storms can always produce higher rain totals.

I had reports from Ballard County of three to four inches and a report from Salem, Kentucky of five inches.

Thursday into the weekend:

A cold front will push into the region on Thursday.  We should see an uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity on Thursday and Thursday night.  The threat for severe weather appears minimal.

Here is the weather map for Thursday.  You can see the front moving in from the north and west.

PWAT values on Thursday will be quite high.  This is a signal for locally heavy rain.

What are PWAT values?  Great question!  Here is the answer – Link

Dew points along the front will be high.

This is another signal for locally heavy rain.

Rainfall totals, if everything holds as anticipated, should range from 0.25″ to 0.50″ with locally higher totals in thunderstorms.

Weekend system:

A larger and stronger storm system is forecast to take shape on Friday into the weekend.  This system should be closely monitored.  Heavy rain is a concern.  If the low tracks to our north then severe thunderstorms would also be a concern.

At this time, the track of the area of low pressure is still in question.  Monitor updated forecasts as we move through the week.

Let’s take a look at some graphics.

These are 12 hour rainfall total forecasts.

NAM forecast for 4 AM Tuesday through 4 PM Tuesday.  You can see hints of rain in the area.  Most of the activity, at least according to the NAM, would be over far southeast Missouri into Kentucky and Tennessee.

Click image to enlarge.

This next image is for 4 am Wednesday through 4 pm Wednesday.

According to the NAM guidance there would be some rain in the region.  It is mostly centered on Kentucky and Tennessee.

Low confidence on this part of the forecast.  Some spotty showers/storms are possible Wednesday, but much of the region will probably remain dry.  I put the rain chances in the 20% to 30% range for any given location.  That means there should be a few rain showers and storms on radar, but coverage should not be all that great.

If forecast adjustments are necessary then I will update them at the top of the page.

This next map is for Thursday.  This is 1 pm through 1 am.  This is when the next cold front arrives.  Precipitation would become widespread along the front.

NOAA has some decent rain totals into the weekend.  This is the rain totals If you added everything up from now through Sunday.

You will need to click on the image to enlarge it.

It is important to note that the EC ensembles are showing the track of the weekend low over our area.  If this low tracks over our local area or to the north then our chances for strong storms will increase.  We need to monitor this part of the forecast.

The GFS, on the other hand, tracks the low to our south.  The operational GFS.

You can see the closed isobars (equal lines of  pressure) over western Tennessee.  The warm sector, if this is true, would remain to our south and east.

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