April 17, 2019: Non-subscribers update.

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Today: Yes. Late tonight some storms could be intense. The main concern will be a few reports of damaging wind late tonight into Thursday.
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Tomorrow: Storms on Thursday could produce heavy downpours and strong winds. Let’s monitor the severe weather risk.

Widespread rain likely late Wednesday night/Thursday.
A few storms could become severe with 55 mph wind gusts.
Locally heavy rain late Wednesday night/Thursday. Right now, it appears a widespread 1.00″ to 2.00″ will occur. Monitor updates. Some of the guidance shows higher totals. The greatest chance of higher totals will be across western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee. Perhaps southeast Illinois, as well.
Spotty showers on Friday. There are questions about whether precipitation will linger into Friday. Lower confidence on this part of the forecast.
Unsettled Monday through at least Thursday with on and off rain chances.
Gusty winds today into Monday.

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Today through Friday night.

Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible Wednesday night into Friday.
Is severe weather in the forecast? Monitor. Some storms could be intense late Wednesday night and Thursday. A few storms could produce damaging wind gusts. Monitor updates. The greatest concern will be over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is Flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. Locally heavy rain is possible on Wednesday night and Thursday. Some flooding is possible.

Saturday through Tuesday night.

Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. We will need to monitor Monday into Tuesday night.
Is severe weather in the forecast? Not at this time. Monitor updates.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.

Today’s Facebook weather discussion link
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* The Missouri Bootheel includes Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties
* Northwest Kentucky includes Daviess, Henderson, McLean Union, and Webster Counties

April 17, 2019
Wednesday’s Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. Warm. Breezy.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 76° to 80° SE MO 76° to 80° South IL 76° to 80° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 76° to 80° West KY 76° to 80° NW TN 76° to 80°
Wind direction and speed: Southerly winds at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 10% Southeast MO 20% IL 20% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 10% Western KY 10% NW TN 10%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated. Most areas will remain dry.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8 High
Sunrise: 6:18 AM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mild. breezy. Showers and thunderstorms moving in from the west. Most of the activity will likely not occur until after 12 AM. A few storms could be intense. Locally heavy downpours are possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 64° SE MO 60° to 64° South IL 62° to 64° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 64° West KY 62° to 64° NW TN 62° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: Southerly at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty winds. Higher gusts near storms.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 62°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 70% Southeast MO 70% Southern IL 60% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 6% Western KY 60% NW TN 60%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Becoming numerous late. Moving in from the west.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Some strong storms are possible. Damaging wind gusts are the main concern. Monitor updates.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Sunset: 7:32 PM
Moonrise: 5:41 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 5:32 AM

April 18, 2019
Thursday’s Forecast: Mild. Windy. Mostly cloudy. Periods of showers and thunderstorms. Heavy downpours are possible. Monitor the severe weather risk. It is a conditional risk. What does conditional mean? It means that if CAPE does not develop then storms would likely remain below severe levels. CAPE is energy that storms tap into. Overall, the severe weather risk is low.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 70° SE MO 65° to 70° South IL 65° to 70° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° West KY 66° to 70° NW TN 66° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: Southerly winds at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 35
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 70°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 70% Southeast MO 70% IL 70% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70% Western KY 70% NW TN 70%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Some strong storms are possible. Again, damaging winds are the main concern. Monitor updates.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
UV Index: 3 Moderate
Sunrise: 6:17 AM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mild. Windy. Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms possible before 10 PM. Rain ending west to east through the night. Total rainfall totals of one to two inches. Pockets of two to three inches possible across southeast Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 46° SE MO 44° to 46° South IL 44° to 46° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 46° West KY 44° to 46° NW TN 44° to 46°
Wind direction and speed: West and northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty winds.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 45°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 40% Southeast MO 40% Southern IL 40% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60% Western KY 50% NW TN 50%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous early. Diminishing through the night.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Sunset: 7:33 PM
Moonrise: 6:51 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 6:07 AM

April 19, 2019
Friday’s Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Chilly. Showers are possible. The chances of spotty showers are greater during the afternoon vs morning. Breezy.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (50% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 56° SE MO 52° to 54° South IL 52° to 56° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 53° to 56° West KY 52° to 54° NW TN 52° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest wind at 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 46° to 54°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 40% Southeast MO 30% IL 40% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50% Western KY 50% NW TN 50%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
UV Index: 3 Moderate
Sunrise: 6:15 AM
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Friday night Forecast: Some clouds. Chilly. A shower is possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (40% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 44° SE MO 38° to 42° South IL 38° to 42° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 44° West KY 40° to 44° NW TN 42° to 44°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty winds.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 45°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 20% Southeast MO 20% Southern IL 30% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40% Western KY 30% NW TN 30%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Some wet roadways. If the clouds clear then patchy fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Sunset: 7:34 PM
Moonrise: 8:00 PM
The phase of the moon: Full
Moonset: 6:42 AM

Saturday: Low confidence. We will need to monitor the speed of the upper-level low on Friday and Friday night. If it lingers then clouds will be slower to depart. A few morning clouds. Clearing. Mild. Highs in the middle 60’s. Some upper 60’s are possible. Lows in the upper 40’s to around 50 degrees. West and northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Winds Saturday night becoming westerly at 7 to 14 mph.

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Sunday: Pick day of the weekend. Medium confidence. Partly to mostly sunny. Warm. Highs in the middle 70’s. Lows in the upper 50’s. West and southwest wind at 8 to 16 mph.

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Monday: Medium confidence. A mix of sun and clouds. A slight chance of a shower. High temperatures in the middle 70’s. Low temperatures in the middle 50’s. South winds at 10 to 20 mph.

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

Graphic-cast

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** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

Missouri

Illinois

Kentucky

Tennessee

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Wind forecast

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The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
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Today and tomorrow: A few storms could be intense late Wednesday night and Thursday. Damaging wind will be the main concern. Lightning. Heavy downpours are a concern. Some spotty flooding could occur (flood prone areas). Monitor updates. I will send out app messages if necessary.

Friday through Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated.

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Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.

This map shows you liquid and does not assume precipitation type. In other words, melted precipitation totals.

48-hour precipitation outlook.

Here is the seven-day precipitation forecast. This includes day one through seven.

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Warm and breezy today. Increasing clouds.
A few spotty showers possible Wednesday. Many areas will remain dry.
Showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast late tonight and Thursday.
Locally heavy rain is possible. A few storms could be strong late Wednesday night and Thursday. Confidence in severe weather remains low.
Cooler by Friday. A few showers on Friday, as well.

Current conditions.

Have there been any changes in the forecast over the last 24 hours?

I increased rain totals through Thursday night.

I ramped up wording concerning severe storms late tonight. A few could produce high winds. The main concern is across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Elsewhere, monitor updates.

Lowered Friday’s temperatures slightly (one to two degrees).

I backed off on thunderstorm chances on Friday. Shower chances remain. Thunderstorms are questionable.

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Forecast discussion.

Today into Thursday night.

Wasn’t Tuesday amazing?

I took this photograph off the front deck here at the Weather Observatory in Massac County, Illinois. Temperatures were well into the 70’s. We had gusty winds, as well. Winds topped 30 mph frequently up here on the hill.

We will continue to have gusty winds over the next few days. Actually, the gusty winds may last into early next week.

The strongest winds will be on Thursday. Southerly winds in the 25 to 35 mph range.

Winds will mostly be from the south as we move through Wednesday night and Thursday.

We could have a couple of light showers today. Nothing serious. Most of the region will remain dry.

Rain and thunderstorm chances ramp up tonight.

A cold front and area of low pressure will develop to our west and move east.

This system will produce severe weather to our west and south. Our region could also have a few intense storms. The greatest chance may arrive late tonight as a line of storms advances into the region. A few storms could produce damaging wind gusts.

I will be sending out app messages if necessary.

Locally heavy downpours are also possible.

NOAA has placed our region in a marginal and slight risk of excessive rainfall. Bottom line, that means some areas could receive enough rain to cause issues in common flood problem areas. Ditches that flood easily, roads that flood easily, and so on. Widespread flash flooding is not anticipated.

Rain totals of one to two inches are likely across our region. I can’t rule out pockets of two to three inches. The highest totals will be across southeast Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee. Monitor the Bootheel of Missouri, as well.

Here is their outlook

The green is a marginal risk (lowest). Slight is in yellow.

Marginal risk today.

Marginal to a slight risk of excessive rainfall on Thursday.

We have received quite a bit of rain lately.

Unsettled weather will linger into Friday. See discussion below.

Rain totals between Wednesday night and Thursday will likely range from 1.00″to 2.00″.

Weekend

At this time it appears that Friday will deliver cooler temperatures and clouds. Spotty showers. If we had a little bit of instability then a thunderstorm would be possible Friday. As it stands, instability is now in question. If a thunderstorm does form then it would likely produce pea to dime size hail. The freezing level on Friday will be quite low.

Clouds should move off to the east on Saturday. If the clouds depart then most of the area will have high temperatures in the middle 60’s. A tad cooler if clouds linger. Gusty northwest winds will top 20 mph on Saturday.

Southwest winds will usher warmer air into the region by Sunday. Highs will be in the 75 to 80-degree range. Wind gusts will again top 20 mph.

Long Range

Active. That is the bottom line. Several chances of showers and thunderstorms between now and next Friday.

I am watching one system that will arrive Monday/Monday night. Several systems will push through the region from Monday through Thursday.

Locally heavy rain is a concern if you believe the EC model guidance. Several other guidance packages show active weather, as well. We do not need more rain.

Here is the GFS model guidance. The date is at the top of the animation. Green is rain.

This is the EC model guidance rain totals through the morning of the 26th.

Hopefully, the EC guidance is overdone.

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Model Future-cast Radars. What the models believe the radar may look like.

Showers and thunderstorm activity will increase late tonight. Much of the rain should be after midnight.

A few thunderstorms are possible, as well.

Shower and thunderstorms will remain with us into Thursday and Thursday night. Locally heavy rain.

An upper-level low should help aid in the development of showers on Friday. Lower risk of lightning on Friday (there may not be much CAPE/instability).

Timestamp upper left.

GFS model

Click to enlarge.

The system is now in the view of the NAM model guidance.

Notice most of the rain does not arrive until after midnight into early Thursday morning.

Also, notice Friday. Spotty showers but not widespread. This is a change from previous updates.

The coverage of rain on Friday is questionable. Keep this is mind.

These maps update several times a day. Occasionally, in between updates, you may see a duplicate day or one out of sync.

Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.

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WeatherBrains Episode 691

Tonight’s WeatherBrain has been a broadcast meteorologist for 35 years, with the past 25 years in Top 10 markets including Houston and Dallas Texas. In January 2019, he retired from television, but started his own business titled “Heller Weather LLC”. This business helps local TV stations maximize their weather resources and build stronger brands. Tim Heller, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like: