Monday, April 17, 2017:
I hope everyone had a wonderful weekend (even with the storms).
Some of you missed out on yesterdays rain event. A few places near the KY/TN border received little in the way of rainfall. Parts of western Kentucky picked up three to four inches of rain.
We are in that time of the year where thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours. You can quickly pick up an inch or more of rain in less than thirty minutes.
We have another batch of showers and thunderstorms spreading through the area this morning. This batch will be moving eastward through the day. Some locally heavy downpours are a possibility.
The severe weather threat today is very low.
Rain may linger into tonight, but Tuesday into Wednesday should be dry (outside of a less than 20% for storms).
Another rain maker is showing up in the charts for Thursday into the weekend. We will need to monitor this system for heavy rain and perhaps storms. Too soon to know if severe weather is a concern. Heavy rain may be the bigger concern.
I will post some storm tracking links below.
Radar
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
Lightning data
This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog
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April 16, 2017
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Showers and thunderstorms likely (esp before 8 PM). Showers and storms ending from west to east. A new batch of showers and storms will approach southeast Missouri after 5 am. A 30% for showers and storms area-wide after midnight. Dense fog developing.
Temperatures: MO ~ 56 to 62 IL ~ 56 to 62 KY ~ 56 to 62 TN ~ 56 to 62
Winds: Variable at 3 to 6 mph. Winds mostly from the west and southwest.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning. Wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 70% These probabilities are mostly for the evening hours.
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous early in the evening, but ending from west to east.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B in case it rains.
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April 17, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Morning fog possible. Mostly cloudy. A 50% for showers and storms before 12 pm. A 50% for showers and storms after 12 pm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 74 IL ~ 70 to 74 KY ~ 70 to 74 TN ~ 70 to 74
Winds: Variable light winds at less than 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous before 12 pm. Scattered after 12 pm.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would monitor updates. Rain is a possibility.
Sunrise will be at 6:15 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:31 p.m.
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A few evening showers and storms will be possible. Rain chances will be diminishing overnight.
Temperatures: MO ~ 56 to 62 IL ~ 56 to 62 KY ~ 56 to 62 TN ~ 56 to 62
Winds: East and northeast at 8 to 16 mph. Gusty winds, at times.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Perhaps lightning.
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered (mostly early)
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars. There could be some spotty showers/storms in the evening.
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April 18, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. A 20% for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 74 to 78 IL ~ 74 to 78 KY ~ 74 to 78 TN ~ 74 to 78
Winds: Northeast and east winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning and wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to spotty.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
Sunrise will be at 6:14 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:32 p.m.
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A 20% for showers and thunderstorms late.
Temperatures: MO ~ 60 to 65 IL ~ 60 to 65 KY ~ 60 to 65 TN ~ 60 to 65
Winds: East winds becoming south and southeast at 6 to 12 mph. Gusty winds from time to time.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verifysible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Perhaps lightning.
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to spotty
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
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April 19, 2017
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. Warm for April. Isolated to scattered storms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 78 to 84 IL ~ 78 to 84 KY ~ 78 to 84 TN ~ 78 to 84
Winds: South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to perhaps spotty
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunrise will be at 6:12 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:33 p.m.
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Isolated storms possible during the early evening hours.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 65 IL ~ 62 to 65 KY ~ 62 to 65 TN ~ 62 to 65
Winds: South at 6 to 12 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Perhaps lightning.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
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April 20, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
Temperatures: MO ~ 75 to 80 IL ~ 75 to 80 KY ~ 75 to 80 TN ~ 75 to 80
Winds: South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time, but monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts and radars.
Sunrise will be at 6:11 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:34 p.m.
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly to mostly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 50 to 55 IL ~ 50 to 55 KY ~ 50 to 55 TN ~ 50 to 55
Winds: North and northwest at 4 to 8 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Perhaps lightning.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps numerous.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
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April 21, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Increasing clouds. Cooler. A chance for a shower or thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 60 to 65 IL ~ 60 to 65 KY ~ 60 to 65 TN ~ 60 to 65
Winds: Northeast at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
Sunrise will be at 6:10 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:35 p.m.
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
Temperatures: MO ~ 56 to 62 IL ~ 56 to 62 KY ~ 56 to 62 TN ~ 56 to 62
Winds: Variable at 10 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Perhaps lightning.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps numerous.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day
Severe thunderstorm outlook.
Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 60 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Sunday night into Monday night: Thunderstorms are likely Sunday night into Monday. Sunday night’s storms will end from west to east. Another round of storms will develop over southwest Missouri and move eastward. These storms may approach southeast Missouri after 4 am Monday morning. Storms should continue moving eastward through Monday morning into the afternoon hours.
The risk for severe weather is fairly low. Wind fields aloft are weak. Lightning and heavy downpours will be the main concern. A couple of reports of strong winds and hail can’t be ruled out. Widespread severe weather is not anticipated.
Tuesday and Wednesday: Small chances for thunderstorms. Severe weather is not anticipated. Most areas will remain dry.
Wednesday night into Thursday night: Thunderstorms are possible. The signals for severe weather are low. I would suggest monitoring updated forecasts. I am watching Thursday for a few strong storms. Another round of storms possible Friday night or Saturday.
Friday through Sunday: Rain chances may increase on Friday night or Saturday. A few storms can’t be ruled out. Low confidence on the track of the area of low pressure associated with these rain/storm chances. Monitor updates.
Weather Analysis
Short update, because I am dealing with ongoing storms and it is Easter!
Another round of showers and storms is anticipated for Monday. The current thinking is that the bulk of the activity will be during the morning hours. Rain chances decrease during the afternoon hours.
There remain some questions about coverage and intensity of Monday’s storms. Lower than normal confidence in Monday’s forecast.
There will be small thunderstorm chances Monday night through Wednesday night. Rain chances will likely remain below 30% during that period of time.
A large storm system is forecast to take shape on Thursday into the weekend. It is possible that locally heavy rain will be a concern. Models are showing the area of low pressure passing to our south, but confidence on the track is low.
If the low tracks to our north then our severe weather risks would increase. For now, we will monitor this system.
Let’s look at one model’s opinion on what radar might look like on Monday. Remember, model’s are not gospel. It won’t be exact.
This is the high resolution SPC WRF model.
6 AM
8 AM
10 AM
12 PM
3 PM
There is lower than normal confidence on how Monday afternoon unfolds. WRF would suggest quite a bit of activity.
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link—
National interactive radar: Click this link.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky. These are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Regional Radar
The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue. 2015 through current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC. I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.
I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas. I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com
WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions
