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April 15, 2017
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Nice evening for outdoor activities. Increasing clouds through the evening. A chance for showers and thunderstorms developing late over our northern counties (Farmington, MO towards Mt Vernon, IL). Most areas should remain dry before 2 am. Chances for showers/storms increase a little after 2 am.
Temperatures: MO ~ 60 to 65 IL ~ 60 to 65 KY ~ 60 to 65 TN ~ 60 to 65
Winds: South and southwest winds at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning (late)
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? AFTER 11 PM MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated. Perhaps becoming scattered after 2 am across our northern counties.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
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April 16, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Those with outdoor events on Sunday should have a plan B. We should have some rain on radar. Doubt it will rain all day, but some rain. Plan for rain showers and then hope for the best.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A 40% for showers and storms before 12 pm and then a 70% for showers and storms after 12 pm. Rain will move in from the west. Some of the storms could be intense. Gusty winds and nickel size hail possible with the most intense storms. Isolated severe storms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 74 to 78 IL ~ 74 to 78 KY ~ 74 to 78 TN ~ 74 to 78
Winds: South and southwest winds at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning. Some downpours. Wet roadways. Severe weather risk is small.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Small risk for severe weather.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps widespread.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B in case it rains. Plan for rain and hope for the best.
Sunrise will be at 6:17 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:31 p.m.
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Showers and thunderstorms likely.
Temperatures: MO ~ 55 to 60 IL ~ 55 to 60 KY ~ 55 to 60 TN ~ 55 to 60
Winds: Variable at 3 to 6 mph. Winds mostly from the southwest.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning. Wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered northern portions of the area (perhaps ending north). Greater coverage as you move towards the KY/TN State line.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B in case it rains.
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April 17, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A 60% for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 74 IL ~ 70 to 74 KY ~ 70 to 74 TN ~ 70 to 74
Winds: East at 5 mph. Winds variable at times.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would monitor updates. Rain is a possibility.
Sunrise will be at 6:15 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:31 p.m.
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A 30% for showers. Perhaps a thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 56 to 62 IL ~ 56 to 62 KY ~ 56 to 62 TN ~ 56 to 62
Winds: East at 5 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Perhaps lightning.
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts.
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April 18, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. A 30% for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 74 to 78 IL ~ 74 to 78 KY ~ 74 to 78 TN ~ 74 to 78
Winds: South and southeast winds at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 6:14 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:32 p.m.
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A 20% for showers. Perhaps a thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 60 to 65 IL ~ 60 to 65 KY ~ 60 to 65 TN ~ 60 to 65
Winds: South at 5 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Perhaps lightning.
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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April 19, 2017
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. Warm for April. A chance for a thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 78 to 84 IL ~ 78 to 84 KY ~ 78 to 84 TN ~ 78 to 84
Winds: South and southwest at 10 to 20 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time, but monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:14 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:33 p.m.
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance for a thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 60 to 65 IL ~ 60 to 65 KY ~ 60 yo 65 TN ~ 60 to 65
Winds: South at 6 to 12 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Perhaps lightning.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day
Severe thunderstorm outlook.
Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 60 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Saturday night into Monday: Thunderstorms are possible. Lightning and locally heavy downpours are the main concern. Small risk for severe weather on Sunday. It appears lightning may be the main concern.
There is a small risk that a few storms could approach severe levels on Easter Sunday. Gusty winds would be the main concern and perhaps hail. The overall risk is minimal.
Beyond Monday it does appear we will have a few chances for storms next week. Too early to know if one of those events will produce severe weather. Monitor updates.
Here is the SPC outlook for Sunday. The dark green represents a marginal (small) risk for severe storms.
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Happy Easter 🙂
Short update
Rain showers and storms should develop late Saturday night and increase in coverage on Sunday. A few storms could produce gusty winds and nickel size hail. Locally heavy downpours.
Be prepared for rain on Sunday. If you have outdoor plans then have alternative plans. Hope for the best, but plan for showers and thunderstorms.
On and off rain chances through the week.
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Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link—
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Regional Radar
The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue. 2015 through current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC. I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.
I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas. I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com
WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions
