Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. 

SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.

48-hour forecast

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April 15, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  High confidence
Friday Forecast: Increasing clouds.  A chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Mainly during the late morning and afternoon.  Coverage will be higher over Missouri and Illinois early on and then transition further south.  A few storms could be strong across southern Missouri and near the Kentucky/Tennessee border.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 60%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 50% /  the rest of South IL ~ 60%  /  West KY ~ 40%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40%  /  NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Late morning into afternoon.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 70°  /  SE MO 64° to 66° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 64° to 66° /  South IL 66° to 68°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 68°  /  West KY 64° to 66° /  NW TN 66° to 70°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lighting. A few storms could be severe across southern Missouri into Kentucky and Tennessee.  Lesser risk as you travel north.  The primary risk may end up being evening into the overnight hours.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars.
UV Index: 8.  Very high.
Sunrise: 6:21 AM
Sunset:  7:30 PM
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Friday night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms likely (esp southern half of the region).  A few storms could produce gusty wind and hail.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 90% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 60%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% /  the rest of South IL ~ 60%  /  West KY ~ 80%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40%  /  NW TN ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous (widespread southern half of the region).  Lesser coverage further north.
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 54° /  SE MO 44° to 48° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 44° to 48° /  South IL 44° to 48° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48° /  West KY 48° to 50° /  NW TN 50° to 54°
Winds will be from the:  Southeast wind becoming north northwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lighting. A few storms could produce high wind and hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B across the southern half of the region.
Moonrise: 6:31 PM
Moonset: 5:56 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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April 16, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  High confidence
Saturday Forecast:  A mix of sun and clouds.  More morning clouds vs afternoon.  Some clearing north to south through the day.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.  I can’t 100% rule out a few drops of rain across the Bootheel and northwest Tennessee before 10 AM.  Odds favor dry.
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66°  /  SE MO 62° to 65° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 60° to 64° /  South IL 62° to 65°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 64°  /  West KY 62° to 65° /  NW TN 64° to 66°
Winds will be from the: North at 7 to 14 mph. Higher gusts possible.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8.  Very high.
Sunrise: 6:19 AM
Sunset:  7:31 PM
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Saturday night Forecast:  Increasing clouds from the southwest.  A chance of showers late at night.  A slight chance of lightning over southeast Missouri.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 30%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% /  the rest of South IL ~ 20%  /  West KY ~ 20%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20%  /  NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered late at night.
Timing of the rain:  Mostly after 11 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 44° /  SE MO 35° to 40° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 35° to 40° /  South IL 36° to 42° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 36° to 42° /  West KY 36° to 42° /  NW TN 42° to 44°
Winds will be from the:  Northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 33° to 36°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Isolated lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:40 PM
Moonset: 6:24 AM
The phase of the moon:  Full

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April 17, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  High confidence
Sunday Forecast:  Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 60%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% /  the rest of South IL ~ 40%  /  West KY ~ 40%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40%  /  NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 58°  /  SE MO 55° to 60° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 54° to 56° /  South IL 54° to 56°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 56°  /  West KY 54° to 56° /  NW TN 56° to 58°
Winds will be from the:  East 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars.   Have a plan B in case of showers.
UV Index: 6.  High.
Sunrise: 6:18 AM
Sunset:  7:32 PM
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Sunday night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms early. Turning colder.  Ending west to east overnight.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 50%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 50% /  the rest of South IL ~ 60%  /  West KY ~ 60%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60%  /  NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Mainly before 2 AM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 44° /  SE MO 38° to 42° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 38° to 42° /  South IL 40° to 42° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 42° /  West KY 42° to 44° /  NW TN 42° to 44°
Winds will be from the:  North 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars.   Have a plan B in case of showers.
Moonrise: 8:52 PM
Moonset: 6:54 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous

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April 18, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  High confidence
Monday Forecast:  Partly to mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 64°  /  SE MO 60° to 62° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 58° to 62° /  South IL 60° to 64°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 62°  /  West KY 62° to 64° /  NW TN 60° to 64°
Winds will be from the: North northwest 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8.  Very high.
Sunrise: 6:17 AM
Sunset:  7:33 PM
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Monday night Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Frost possible in cold favored areas.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 36° to 38° /  SE MO 33° to 36° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 32° to 34° /  South IL 33° to 36° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 36° /  West KY 34° to 38° /  NW TN 36° to 40°
Winds will be from the:  North northwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 32° to 38°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:08 PM
Moonset: 7:27 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous

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April 19, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast:  Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 64°  /  SE MO 60° to 64° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 60° to 64° /  South IL 60° to 64°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 64°  /  West KY 62° to 64° /  NW TN 62° to 64°
Winds will be from the: North northeast 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8.  Very high.
Sunrise: 6:15 AM
Sunset:  7:34 PM
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Tuesday  night Forecast:  Increasing clouds.  A chance of showers (mainly late).  Mainly over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 20%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 45° /  SE MO 40° to 44° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 40° to 44° /  South IL 40° to 44° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 44° /  West KY 40° to 44° /  NW TN 40° to 44°
Winds will be from the:  Southeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:23 PM
Moonset: 8:08 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous

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April 20, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast:  Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 40%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% /  the rest of South IL ~ 40%  /  West KY ~ 40%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40%  /  NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Timing of the rain:  Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 70°  /  SE MO 64° to 66° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 63° to 66° /  South IL 63° to 66°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66°  /  West KY 63° to 66° /  NW TN 68° to 70°
Winds will be from the: South 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6.  High.
Sunrise: 6:14 AM
Sunset:  7:35 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 50% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 50%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 50% /  the rest of South IL ~ 50%  /  West KY ~ 50%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 50%  /  NW TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 54° /  SE MO 48° to 52° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 48° to 52° /  South IL 50° to 54° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 54° /  West KY 50° to 54° /  NW TN 50° to 54°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 7 to 14 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 54°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise:
Moonset: 8:57 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous

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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down.  Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook.  You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

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Today through April 18th:  A few storms could be severe Friday afternoon and night.  Mainly across the southern half of the region.  Hail is the main concern.  Perhaps some damaging wind.

Severe weather is not currently anticipated Saturday through next Tuesday.  I am watching next Wednesday and the weekend of the 22nd.

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Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

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Forecast Discussion

The National Weather Service has confirmed at least five tornadoes across western Kentucky Wednesday afternoon and night.   They are still conducting surveys and additional tornadoes may be added to the list.

The five tornadoes were in Hickman, Graves, Trigg, Lyon, and Marshall Counties.  They were rated EF0 to EF1.  QLCS short-lived tornadoes.

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There were over 300 reports of severe weather in total from the outbreak.

This map does not have all of the tornadoes (they will be added as the NWS sends the data to the SPC)

Thankfully, it was not worse.  It could have been.  Much of Missouri and Illinois were spared.

There were some substantial forecast changes over the past 24 hours.

I had to send out a couple of updates to app subscribers yesterday.  Two forecast updates and one severe weather update.

Today’s system is coming in stronger and further north.  I increased shower and thunderstorm chances.  Much of this activity will occur this afternoon into tonight.

Some of the storms could be severe weather damaging wind and hail.  Hail is actually the primary concern with this event.  There may be numerous hail reports if everything comes together right.

Some warnings are possible later today and tonight.

I don’t believe there is much of  a tornado risk.  I won’t say a zero risk, but the risk is very low.  Perhaps slightly higher in the Missouri Bootheel.  Still, it is low.

Any time you have a severe thunderstorm, you have to at least monitor it for a tornado risk.

Most of these storms will be elevated and not surface based.  That is because there will be an inversion aloft.  A temperature inversion.  Elevated storms form above that temperature inversion.

If there was surface based CAPE, then the risk of severe weather would be higher.

Typically, elevated storms produce hail and sometimes wind.

Lightning and thunder will occur, as well.  The thunder might be loud and rolling (because of that temperature inversion).

All of this activity will exit late tonight and tomorrow morning.

Saturday should be dry across most of the area.  There is a small chance of lingering precipitation across the Missouri Bootheel into northwest Tennessee.  I would not change any of my outdoor plans.

Check the radars.

Another system approaches the region late Saturday night into Sunday night.  This will bring additional showers to the region.  Perhaps some rumbles of thunder.

Peak rain chances should be Sunday afternoon and Sunday night.  This won’t be a big rain event, but enough to be a nuisance for those who have holiday outdoor events.

The best advice is to have a plan B.  If it rains, then you will be prepared.  Hopefully, the bulk of the rain will hold off until the overnight hours.

All of that rain should exit by Monday.  That will leave Monday and Tuesday dry.

Yet another event will push into the region late Tuesday night into Wednesday.  This will bring additional showers and perhaps some thunderstorms to the forecast Tuesday night into at least Wednesday night.  Perhaps Thursday.  Lower chances Thursday vs Wednesday.

It does not appear that severe weather will be a concern, but monitor updates.  It is April.  It does not take much instability to cause problems during the Month of April.

Another cold front late next weekend.  Lower confidence on that front.

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This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

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This next animation is the GFS American Model.

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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.

These graphics are usually not updated until after 10 AM

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 71 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 50 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″

Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.

This outlook covers April 15th through April 21st

Click on the image to expand it.

These are usually updated between 9:30 and 10:30 AM

 

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 72 degrees

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 52 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
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This outlook covers April 22nd through April 28th

Click on the image to expand it.

 

The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.

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THIS IS UPDATED ON TUESDAY AND FRIDAY

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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around  75 degrees
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 54 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 2.00″ to 2.40″

This outlook covers April 29th through May 12th

Precipitation outlook

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.

College of Dupage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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