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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a broad-brush of the region. See my detailed hand-typed forecast further down.
Tuesday to Tuesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Monitor. I will be monitoring Friday and Saturday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Not at this time.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
4. Will there be a chance of a frost or freeze? Yes. Tuesday and Wednesday night. The coldest night will be Tuesday night. A freeze is likely Tuesday night. Patchy frost Wednesday night.
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April 14, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. Scattered rain and snow showers during the AM hours
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 50%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 54° SE MO 48° to 52° South IL 48° to 52° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 54° West KY 50° to 54° NW TN 50° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 50°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
UV Index: 4. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:21 AM
Sunset: 7:30 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Clearing. Cold. Frost and freeze likely.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 32° to 34° SE MO 30° to 34° South IL 30° to 34° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 34° West KY 30° to 34° NW TN 32° to 34°
Wind direction and speed: North and northwest at 3 to 6 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 34°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Frost and freeze.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:57 AM
Moonset: 11:41 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Wednesday Forecast: AM frost. Increasing clouds. A few spotty PM showers. The best chance will be across Missouri and Illinois.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 58° SE MO 55° to 60° South IL 55° to 60° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 55° to 60° West KY 55° to 60° NW TN 58° to 60°
Wind direction and speed: West wind at 6 to 12 mph becoming southwest at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 56°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Morning frost. Morning freeze. A few wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index: 8. Very high
Sunrise: 6:20 AM
Sunset: 7:31 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Evening clouds will push off to the east. Any remaining showers will end. Patchy frost late.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 38° SE MO 34° to 38° South IL 34° to 38° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 36° West KY 34° to 38° NW TN 34° to 38°
Wind direction and speed: West wind becoming east at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 38°
Coverage of precipitation: A few evening showers. Low chance. Ending.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Patchy frost. Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:45 AM
Moonset: 12:39 PM
The phase of the moon: Last Quarter
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April 16, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast: Partly sunny. Patchy morning frost is possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66° SE MO 58° to 62° South IL 58° to 62° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° West KY 62° to 65° NW TN 63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: East and southeast at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Patchy morning frost.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high
Sunrise: 6:18 AM
Sunset: 7:32 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Increasing clouds. Cool. A chance of showers approaching from the northwest. The chance will be higher over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois vs the rest of the area.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 45° SE MO 42° to 44° South IL 42° to 44° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 45° West KY 43° to 46° NW TN 44° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: North at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 46°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:26 AM
Moonset: 1:38 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning crescent.
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April 17, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 65° SE MO 54° to 58° South IL 55° to 60° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° West KY 64° to 68° NW TN 64° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: Light wind. Wind becoming southwest at 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts. Wind becoming west and northwest late.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 62°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. Monitor radars.
UV Index: 6. High
Sunrise: 6:17 AM
Sunset: 7:32 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of showers. Showers ending.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 38° to 42° SE MO 34° to 38° South IL 34° to 38° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 38° to 42° West KY 38° to 42° NW TN 40° to 42°
Wind direction and speed: North at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 42°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Moonrise: 4:02 AM
Moonset: 2:37 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning crescent.
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April 18, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° SE MO 62° to 65° South IL 60° to 65° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 65° West KY 62° to 66° NW TN 63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High
Sunrise: 6:16 AM
Sunset: 7:33 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 45° to 50° SE MO 43° to 46° South IL 43° to 46° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48° West KY 44° to 48° NW TN 45° to 50°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 48°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Moonrise: 4:33 AM
Moonset: 3:35 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning crescent
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April 19, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? LOW confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 68° SE MO 64° to 68° South IL 64° to 68° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° West KY 64° to 68° NW TN 66° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest to west wind at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:14 AM
Sunset: 7:34 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52° SE MO 48° to 52° South IL 46° to 50° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 46° to 50° West KY 46° to 50° NW TN 48° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: West and northwest wind at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 48°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Moonrise: 5:00 AM
Moonset: 4:32 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning crescent.
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April 20, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 65° to 70° SE MO 64° to 68° South IL 64° to 68° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° West KY 64° to 68° NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: North and northwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high
Sunrise: 6:13 AM
Sunset: 7:35 PM
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Monday night Forecast:
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 45° to 50° SE MO 44° to 48° South IL 44° to 48° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48° West KY 44° to 48° NW TN 46° to 50°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 48°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:26 AM
Moonset: 5:27 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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- Frost chances Tuesday, and Wednesday night. Highest risk Tuesday/Wednesday night.
- Scattered wet fields.
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Click to enlarge the graphics.
Click graphics to enlarge them.
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These are dates that may have precipitation. Monitor the trends in the forecast.
Anything past day seven is low confidence.
Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through April 19th. Most likely none. I will monitor Friday/Saturday for lightning.
Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:
Monitor updates concerning the chance of severe weather on Thursday afternoon and night. Download the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app from the app store. Search for Weather Talk by the Fire Horn. Download it. Install it. It is for subscribers. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome
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Weather Discussion
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- May temperature and precipitation update.
- Frost chances Tuesday and Wednesday night.
- Freeze likely Tuesday night.
- Monitoring Friday’s rain chances.
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May temperature departures
Click on the images to enlarge them
May precipitation departures
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We will have some clouds today. A few flurries or sprinkles are possible. There have been snow flurries this morning across northern Arkansas and southern Missouri. Nothing to write home about, just a novelty flake.
The main weather story today will be chilly weather with below normal temperatures.
A freeze warning has been issued for tonight. You will want to protect your sensitive plants.
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A few more clouds on Wednesday. Some of the models show sprinkles, again. For now, I have the day as dry.
It won’t be as cold Wednesday night, but it will be cold enough for patchy frost.
The good news is that frost is not in the forecast Thursday night, Friday night, Saturday night, or Sunday night!
Clouds thicken Thursday night and Friday. That means some rain showers returning to the area.
Rain chances will be somewhat greater over our northern counties vs southern counties.
Thursday night rain probabilities through 6 AM Friday
And then through the day Friday
Rain will end Friday night. We should not experience heavy rain.
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Saturday now appears dry. At one point, it appeared there might be showers.
I do have low-end rain chances returning Sunday and Sunday night. Dry on Monday.
No severe weather anticipated.
I can’t rule out some lightning on Friday.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
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This animation is the EC model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
This animation is the 3K American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 68 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 44 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.40″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers April 14th through April 20th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 47 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.40″
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This outlook covers April 21st through the 27th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 52 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.80″ to 2.40″
This outlook covers April 28th through May 11th
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Precipitation outlook
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LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
Click to enlarge all of the images below
These graphics are updated Monday through Friday between 8:30 AM and 9:30 AM.
NOTE: These may not be updated on Saturday and Sunday.
Click the image below to enlarge it.
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April temperature departures forecast
April precipitation departures
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May temperature departures
Click on the images to enlarge them
May precipitation departures
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March through May
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Preliminary Summer Forecast
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June through August preliminary temperature outlook
June through August preliminary precipitation outlook
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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