This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog
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April 13, 2017
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Mild. A small chance for a shower.
Temperatures: MO ~ 56 to 62 IL ~ 56 to 62 KY ~ 56 to 62 TN ~ 56 to 62
Winds: South and southeast winds at 0 to 5 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated if anything at all.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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April 14, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. A shower or thunderstorm possible. Well above normal temperatures.
Temperatures: MO ~ 78 to 84 IL ~ 78 to 84 KY ~ 80 to 85 TN ~ 80 to 85
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps some lightning and wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to scattered.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars for a few showers and storms.
Sunrise will be at 6:19 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:29 p.m.
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April 14, 2017
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Isolated early evening showers or storms possible. Mild.
Temperatures: MO ~ 60 to 65 IL ~ 60 to 65 KY ~ 60 to 65 TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds: South winds at 6 mph with gusts to 10 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps some early evening lightning and wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated before 7 pm.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Monitor radars for evening showers.
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April 15, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Pick day of the weekend. Patchy morning fog. Mostly sunny and warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 78 to 84 IL ~ 78 to 84 KY ~ 80 to 84 TN ~ 80 to 84
Winds: South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None anticipated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:18 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:30 p.m.
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Nice evening for outdoor activities. Increasing clouds through the evening. A chance for showers and thunderstorms developing late over our northern counties (Farmington, MO towards Mt Vernon, IL). Most areas should remain dry during the overnight hours.
Temperatures: MO ~ 60 to 65 IL ~ 60 to 65 KY ~ 60 to 65 TN ~ 60 to 65
Winds: South and southwest winds at 4 to 8 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning (late and far north)
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? AFTER 11 PM MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated. Perhaps becoming scattered after 2 am across our northern counties.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
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April 16, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Those with outdoor events on Sunday should have a plan B. We should have some rain on radar. Doubt it will rain all day, but some rain. Plan for rain showers and then hope for the best.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Spreading from north to south. That means some areas will remain dry during the morning hours. That means northern counties may dry out during the afternoon hours. We will have to see how fast the front shifts southward.
Temperatures: MO ~ 74 to 76 IL ~ 74 to 76 KY ~ 74 to 78 TN ~ 74 to 78
Winds: West and southwest winds at 6 to 12 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning. Some downpours. Wet roadways. Severe weather risk is small.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Small risk for severe weather.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps widespread.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B in case it rains. Plan for rain and hope for the best.
Sunrise will be at 6:17 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:31 p.m.
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Showers and thunderstorms possible (esp southern half of the region).
Temperatures: MO ~ 55 to 60 IL ~ 55 to 60 KY ~ 55 to 60 TN ~ 55 to 60
Winds: Variable at 3 to 6 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning. Wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered northern portions of the area (perhaps ending north). Greater coverage as you move towards the KY/TN State line.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B in case it rains.
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April 17, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A 60% for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 74 IL ~ 70 to 74 KY ~ 70 to 74 TN ~ 70 to 74
Winds: East at 5 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would monitor updates. Rain is a possibility.
Sunrise will be at 6:15 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:31 p.m.
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A 40% for showers. Perhaps a thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 54 to 58 IL ~ 54 to 58 KY ~ 54 to 58 TN ~ 54 to 58
Winds: East at 5 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Perhaps lightning.
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts.
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April 18, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A 40% for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 74 to 78 IL ~ 74 to 78 KY ~ 74 to 78 TN ~ 74 to 78
Winds: Variable at 5 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would monitor updates. Rain is a possibility.
Sunrise will be at 6:14 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:32 p.m.
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A 40% for showers. Perhaps a thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 58 to 62 IL ~ 58 to 62 KY ~ 58 to 62 TN ~ 58 to 62
Winds: Variable at 5 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Perhaps lightning.
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts.
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day
Severe thunderstorm outlook.
Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 60 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thursday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. Small chance for a storm after 1 am on Friday morning.
Friday into Friday evening: Some storms area possible. Lightning is the main concern.
Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Saturday night into Monday: Thunderstorms are possible. Lightning and locally heavy downpours are the main concern. Monitor updates.
Beyond Monday it does appear we will have a few chances for storms next week. Too early to know if one of those events will produce severe weather. Monitor updates.
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Your day by day analysis
Thursday night into Friday night:
Dry weather is anticipated on Thursday night. Mild temperatures, as well.
There is a small chance for a shower after 1 am over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. I will keep the chance at 20% for the time being.
Friday will deliver quite a bit of sunshine, but with a weak disturbance passing through the area. A few showers and thunderstorms may develop. The highest chance will be over northern parts of southeast Missouri and northern parts of southern Illinois. Chances will be capped around 30% to 40%.
Friday high temperature map
Elsewhere, including extreme southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee, there will be small chances for showers and storms. Expect warm conditions with high temperatures mostly in the 78 to 84 degree range. Well above normal.
7 AM future-cast radar for Friday
Isolated showers possible. Green represents rain.
Future-cast radar for 4 PM on Friday. Some widely scattered showers and storms.
Severe weather is not anticipated, but if a thunderstorm develops it could be strong with small hail and gusty winds. Lightning, of course is always a concern with thunderstorms.
Friday night:
We will dry out Friday night (for those who picked up a rain shower). Patchy fog is possible. It will be mild with lows mostly in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s.
Saturday:
Saturday is the pick day of the weekend. Warm! Breezy! Quite a bit of sunshine. It will be a nice day (other than some gusty winds).
1 PM wind gust forecast for Saturday.
Highs on Saturday will be well above normal with highs from 78 to 84 degrees. This is well above normal. I think you will enjoy Saturday’s weather. You better, because rain is likely on Easter Sunday.
Saturday high temperature map
Saturday night into Monday:
Clouds will increase and lower on Saturday night. The first half of the night should be dry. There is a small chance for a thunderstorm over the Farmington, MO to Mt Vernon, IL area before 10 pm.
Shower and thunderstorm activity will increase considerably after midnight. Rain chances late Saturday night into Sunday will increase to around 60%.
The rain band will move north to south. It is possible that our northern counties dry out on Sunday morning/afternoon. The rain band will continue to shift slowly southward through the day.
The front will stall in or near our region.
If you have Easter Sunday plans then I would recommend having alternative plans, in case it does rain.
Rain chances will decrease somewhat on Sunday night and Monday, but I suspect radar will still have activity on it. The higher rain chances will shift southward through the evening and overnight hours.
Future-cast radar from the NAM. This is for Sunday. This is what the NAM guidance believes radar might look like. Notice the band of rain from west to east. It is possible that portions of the region (northern counties) might experience less rain.
10 AM Sunday
KEEP IN MIND ~ this is one models opinion.
1 PM Sunday
4 PM Sunday
7 PM Sunday
Monday night through Wednesday:
A few showers are possible on Monday night.
Confidence decreases on Tuesday and Wednesday. Some of the guidance indicates a continued chance for showers. I will update this part of the forecast in the next update.
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Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link—
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Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky. These are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Regional Radar
The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue. 2015 through current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC. I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.
I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas. I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
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WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.
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