Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. 

SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.

48-hour forecast

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April 14, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  High confidence
Thursday Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66°  /  SE MO 62° to 65° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 62° to 65° /  South IL 63° to 66°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 64°  /  West KY 63° to 66° /  NW TN 64° to 66°
Winds will be from the: Southwest 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8.  High.
Sunrise: 6:22 AM
Sunset:  7:29 PM
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Thursday night Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 45° /  SE MO 40° to 44° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 40° to 44° /  South IL 40° to 44° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 44° /  West KY 40° to 44° /  NW TN 42° to 45°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:23 PM
Moonset: 5:29 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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April 15, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  High confidence
Friday Forecast: Increasing clouds.  A chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Mainly during the late morning and afternoon.  Coverage will be higher over Missouri and Illinois.  A few storms could be strong across southern Missouri and near the Kentucky/Tennessee border.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 40%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% /  the rest of South IL ~ 30%  /  West KY ~ 40%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20%  /  NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered (more numerous late in the day across the southern half of the region)
Timing of the rain: Late morning into afternoon.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 70°  /  SE MO 64° to 66° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 64° to 66° /  South IL 66° to 68°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 68°  /  West KY 64° to 66° /  NW TN 66° to 70°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lighting. A few storms could be severe across southern Missouri into Kentucky and Tennessee.  Lesser risk as you travel north.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8.  Very high.
Sunrise: 6:21 AM
Sunset:  7:30 PM
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Friday night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  A chance of showers and thunderstorms.  A few storms could be strong across southern Missouri and near the Kentucky/Tennessee border.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 90% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 60%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% /  the rest of South IL ~ 60%  /  West KY ~ 60%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40%  /  NW TN ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52° /  SE MO 44° to 48° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 44° to 48° /  South IL 44° to 48° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48° /  West KY 48° to 50° /  NW TN 48° to 52°
Winds will be from the:  Variable 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lighting. A few storms could produce high wind and hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B across the southern half of the region.
Moonrise: 6:31 PM
Moonset: 5:56 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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April 16, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  High confidence
Saturday Forecast:  A mix of sun and clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66°  /  SE MO 62° to 65° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 62° to 65° /  South IL 62° to 65°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 64°  /  West KY 62° to 65° /  NW TN 64° to 66°
Winds will be from the: North at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8.  Very high.
Sunrise: 6:19 AM
Sunset:  7:31 PM
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Saturday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  A chance of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 30%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% /  the rest of South IL ~ 20%  /  West KY ~ 20%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20%  /  NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain:  Mostly after 12 AM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 44° /  SE MO 35° to 40° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 35° to 40° /  South IL 36° to 42° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 36° to 42° /  West KY 36° to 42° /  NW TN 42° to 44°
Winds will be from the:  Northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 33° to 36°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:40 PM
Moonset: 6:24 AM
The phase of the moon:  Full

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April 17, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  High confidence
Sunday Forecast:  Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 40%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% /  the rest of South IL ~ 40%  /  West KY ~ 40%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40%  /  NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 58°  /  SE MO 55° to 60° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 54° to 56° /  South IL 54° to 56°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 56°  /  West KY 54° to 56° /  NW TN 56° to 58°
Winds will be from the:  East 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars.   Have a plan B in case of showers.
UV Index: 6.  High.
Sunrise: 6:18 AM
Sunset:  7:32 PM
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Sunday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms early. Turning colder.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 40%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% /  the rest of South IL ~ 40%  /  West KY ~ 40%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40%  /  NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Mainly before 1 AM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 44° /  SE MO 38° to 44° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 38° to 42° /  South IL 40° to 42° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 42° /  West KY 42° to 44° /  NW TN 42° to 44°
Winds will be from the:  North 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars.   Have a plan B in case of showers.
Moonrise: 8:52 PM
Moonset: 6:54 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous

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April 18, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  High confidence
Monday Forecast:  Partly to mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 64°  /  SE MO 60° to 62° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 60° to 62° /  South IL 60° to 64°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 62°  /  West KY 62° to 64° /  NW TN 60° to 64°
Winds will be from the: North northwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8.  Very high.
Sunrise: 6:17 AM
Sunset:  7:33 PM
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Monday night Forecast:  Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 36° to 38° /  SE MO 34° to 36° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 34° to 36° /  South IL 34° to 38° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 38° /  West KY 34° to 38° /  NW TN 38° to 40°
Winds will be from the:  North northwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 38°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:08 PM
Moonset: 7:27 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous

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April 19, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast:  Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 64°  /  SE MO 60° to 64° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 60° to 64° /  South IL 60° to 64°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 64°  /  West KY 62° to 64° /  NW TN 62° to 64°
Winds will be from the: North northeast 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8.  Very high.
Sunrise: 6:15 AM
Sunset:  7:34 PM
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Tuesday  night Forecast:  Increasing clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 45° /  SE MO 40° to 44° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 40° to 44° /  South IL 40° to 44° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 44° /  West KY 40° to 44° /  NW TN 40° to 44°
Winds will be from the:  Southeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:23 PM
Moonset: 8:08 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous

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April 20, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast:  Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 30%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% /  the rest of South IL ~ 30%  /  West KY ~ 30%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30%  /  NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Timing of the rain:  Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 68°  /  SE MO 63° to 66° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 63° to 66° /  South IL 63° to 66°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66°  /  West KY 63° to 66° /  NW TN 64° to 68°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6.  High.
Sunrise: 6:14 AM
Sunset:  7:35 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 30%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% /  the rest of South IL ~ 30%  /  West KY ~ 30%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30%  /  NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 54° /  SE MO 50° to 54° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 50° to 54° /  South IL 50° to 54° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 54° /  West KY 50° to 54° /  NW TN 50° to 54°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 54°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise:
Moonset: 8:57 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous

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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down.  Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook.  You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

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Today through April 18th:  A few storms could be severe Friday afternoon and night.  Mainly across the southern half of the region.  Hail is the main concern.  Perhaps some damaging wind.

Severe weather is not currently anticipated Saturday through next Tuesday.  I am watching next Wednesday and the weekend of the 22nd.

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Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

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Forecast Discussion

Tornadoes, damaging wind, and hail pushed across the region on Wednesday.

Several tornadoes likely touched down from Arkansas into western Kentucky.

These were QLCS tornadoes.  They were embedded in the line of thunderstorms.

Most of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois was spared the worst of the event.  The Missouri Bootheel into Kentucky and Tennessee were hit harder.

There were several reports of 70 to 80 mph wind gusts.  Numerous reports of power poles broken, power lines down, and trees uprooted.  Some structural damage, as well.

The NWS will be conducting storm surveys today to identify areas where tornadoes may have touched down.

The event underperformed (for being a moderate risk).  Could have been worse.

No two events are alike.  No two moderate risks are alike.  Some produce a lot of severe weather and some produce very little.

Thankfully, that system has pushed off to the east.

Today will be quiet and cooler.   No weather concerns.

Check out how many degrees cooler we are today.

Tonight will be quiet, as well.  Cooler.  Some gusty winds from time to time.

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Friday and Friday night:

A southern system will bring increasing clouds and a chance of some showers and thunderstorms.  A few of the storms could be severe Friday evening/night.

The chance of rain will be higher during the day over our northern counties.  Northern portions of southeast Missouri and northern portions of southern Illinois.

The chances will shift south Friday night.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined our southern counties for a marginal risk of severe weather.  A level one risk.  They could expand this.

The primary concern will likely be Friday afternoon and night.

Several thunderstorms are forecast to form across southern Missouri and northern Arkansas.  There are some parameters for severe weather.  The main concern will be damaging wind and hail.

This is a level one risk.  Confidence in severe weather occurring is low.  I will send out messages if necessary.

The high resolution models are showing some supercell type storms in Missouri and Arkansas tomorrow evening/night.

I will keep an eye on it.

One model.  7 PM Friday.

Another model.  11 PM Friday.

I will monito trends today.

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Saturday and Saturday night

Saturday will likely be dry.  Our southern system should depart late Friday night.  If any showers and thunderstorms linger then it would be very early in the morning.

Otherwise, plan on dry conditions Friday.

Another system will push into the region Saturday night.  I have scattered showers in the forecast.

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Sunday into Thursday

Easter Sunday will deliver clouds, cool temperatures, and scattered showers.  A few thunderstorms will also be possible.  Not severe.

Rain showers will continue into Wednesday night.

It won’t rain all of the time.  Scattered precipitation.  If you have outdoor plans, and I know many of you do, then you should have a plan B.  Plan for showers.  Hope for the best.

Keep in mind, it will also be chilly with gusty wind.

Monday and Tuesday will deliver sun.  Dry conditions.

I am watching another system next Tuesday night into Wednesday night.  Additional shower and thunderstorm chances will be in the forecast.

Data is not in agreement on the extent of the precipitation coverage towards the middle of next week.  I will monitor trends in the guidance.

I am watching another system the weekend of the 22nd.

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This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

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This next animation is the GFS American Model.

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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.

These graphics are usually not updated until after 10 AM

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 71 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 50 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″

Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.

This outlook covers April 13th through April 19th

Click on the image to expand it.

These are usually updated between 9:30 and 10:30 AM

 

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 72 degrees

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 52 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
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This outlook covers April 21st through April 27th

Click on the image to expand it.

 

The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.

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THIS IS UPDATED ON TUESDAY AND FRIDAY

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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around  74 degrees
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 52 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 2.00″ to 2.40″

This outlook covers April 22nd through May 5th

Precipitation outlook

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.

College of Dupage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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