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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
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Monday to Monday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Low chance. An isolated thunderstorm ill be possible over southeast Missouri today/tonight.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No. River flooding will continue.
4. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.
5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.
6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? No.
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April 12, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 10% MO Bootheel ~ 10% I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% South IL ~ 0% West KY ~ 0% NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Timing of the rain: None
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 74° SE MO 70° to 72° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 72° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: West northwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:25 AM
Sunset: 7:28 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 50% MO Bootheel ~ 40% I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% South IL ~ 40% West KY ~ 40% NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 45° to 48° SE MO 40° to 45° South IL 40° to 45° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 44° West KY 44° to 48° NW TN 48° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: North 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
Moonrise: 6:56 AM
Moonset: 8:09 PM
The phase of the moon: New
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April 13, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of mainly AM showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% MO Bootheel ~ 30% I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% South IL ~ 30% West KY ~ 30% NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Mainly during the morning hours
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66° SE MO 62° to 65° South IL 62° to 65° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 66° West KY 64° to 66° NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: North 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:23 AM
Sunset: 7:29 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A few showers, especially over our southern counties.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% MO Bootheel ~ 40% I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% South IL ~ 20% West KY ~ 30% NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 45° SE MO 38° to 44° South IL 38° to 44° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 44° West KY 42° to 45° NW TN 42° to 45°
Wind direction and speed: North 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:22 AM
Moonset: 9:07 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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April 14, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A few showers again possible. Mainly across the Missouri Bootheel and western Tennessee. Perhaps portions of western Kentucky.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% MO Bootheel ~ 40% I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% South IL ~ 20% West KY ~ 30% NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: At any given point of the day
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 64° SE MO 60° to 64° South IL 60° to 64° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 64° West KY 63° to 66° NW TN 63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: North 8 to 16 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:22 AM
Sunset: 7:30 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% MO Bootheel ~ 0% I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% South IL ~ 0% West KY ~ 0% NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain: N/A
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 45° SE MO 42° to 45° South IL 42° to 44° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 44° West KY 44° to 48° NW TN 44° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: North 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:50 AM
Moonset: 10:05 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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April 15, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. A few more clouds in the afternoon vs morning.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% / MO Bootheel ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain: N/A
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66° / SE MO 63° to 66° / South IL 63° to 66° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66° / West KY 64° to 66° / NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: North northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:21 AM
Sunset: 7:31 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers across mainly southeast Missouri.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% / MO Bootheel ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 48° / SE MO 43° to 46° / South IL 43° to 46° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 43° to 46° / West KY 44° to 48° / NW TN 44° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:22 AM
Moonset: 11:04 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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April 16, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Intervals of sun and clouds. A slight chance of a light shower.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 10% / MO Bootheel ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 64° / SE MO 60° to 65° / South IL 60° to 65° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 64° / West KY 63° to 66° / NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: East at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:19 AM
Sunset: 7:32 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Party cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% / MO Bootheel ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 48° / SE MO 44° to 48° / South IL 44° to 48° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48° / West KY 44° to 48° / NW TN 44° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Moonrise: 8:57 AM
Moonset:
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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April 17, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% / MO Bootheel ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: At any given point of the day
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 64° / SE MO 60° to 65° / South IL 60° to 65° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 64° / West KY 63° to 66° / NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: West northwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:18 AM
Sunset: 7:32 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of evening showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% / MO Bootheel ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Mainly before 10 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 45° / SE MO 42° to 45° / South IL 42° to 44° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 44° / West KY 44° to 48° / NW TN 44° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: North northwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 46°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars
Moonrise: 9:39 AM
Moonset: 12:01 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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April 18, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? LOW confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 10% / MO Bootheel ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° / SE MO 62° to 65° / South IL 62° to 65° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 64° / West KY 63° to 66° / NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:16 AM
Sunset: 7:33 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of evening showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 10% / MO Bootheel ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Mainly during the evening hours.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 45° / SE MO 42° to 45° / South IL 42° to 44° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 44° / West KY 44° to 48° / NW TN 44° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: Variable wind direction 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 46°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Moonrise: 10:28 AM
Moonset: 12:57 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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These graphics are changed out between 9:45 AM and 10:45 AM (Monday through Friday only)
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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.Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through April 17th. Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- Dry today.
- Rain chances increase tonight/tomorrow morning.
- Cool temperatures
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I increased rain chances tonight into early Tuesday morning. Nothing major, but a few showers.
A fairly slow weather pattern is underway. Thankfully, we continue to miss the big severe weather events.
Did you see the hail that fell along the Alabama and Florida coast-line? Unheard of sizes. Record size.
Quite a few of my Facebook weather followers reported severe hail damage. They were down there on vacation.
Check out some of these photographs from Saturday mornings event.
Here is some more information. Again, this is rare/unheard of. This would be large hail even in Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. Let alone along the Gulf of Mexico.
The updraft to hold these hailstones would have been over 100 mph!
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So, yes! We have definitely been lucky in our region.
We did have several severe thunderstorms Friday. Damaging wind and hail were reported across portions of southeast Missouri, western Tennessee, and southern Illinois.
Calm weather is forecast over the coming days.
Our weather will be dominated by an upper-level low. That low has been spinning over the Central United States for days on end.
It has been cut-off from the main jet-stream. Thus, it has been slow to move out.
Low pressure rotates counter-clockwise. That means northerly winds in our region. Cooler air.
Here was the satellite imagery from Sunday morning. You can see the rotation around the center of low pressure.
We will have to deal with some clouds from time to time. A few light rain showers or sprinkles will be possible over the coming days.
The highest chance of rain will arrive tonight into early Tuesday morning. There could even be a clap of thunder across southeast Missouri. Mainly just light rain showers in the region.
Rain totals will be less than 0.25″.
We will dry out Tuesday late morning into the afternoon hours.
I continue to watch the weekend for additional shower chances. Some of the models pop a few more showers. Confidence in that is low.
It will be cool with below normal temperatures. Sustained warmth is still not in the weather cards. I know people keep asking me. It would be nice if the 70s and 80s would stick around. I am sure that will happen soon enough. Just not yet.
I am watching next week for frost chances (not this week, but next). I can’t rule out 30s for overnight lows.
It still in the long-range, thus confidence in frost remains low. The GFS and EC models show mostly 40s, but a few of the runs show 30s.
Let’s keep an eye on it.
EC model lows next Tuesday morning (again, this is the long-range).
Next Wednesday morning. Click on the images to enlarge them. Still quite a bit of time for adjustments in these temperatures.
It is something that I am monitoring. Either way, another cool shot or two is on the way over the coming 7 to 14 days.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
- The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
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.This animation is the 3K NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 67 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 46 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers April 12th through April 18th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 47 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
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This outlook covers April 19th through April 25th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 52 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.60″ to 2.20″
This outlook covers April 23rd through May 6th
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Precipitation outlook
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
Spring Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
March, April, and May Temperature Outlook
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March, April, and May Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
And the preliminary March outlooks
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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And the preliminary April outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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And the preliminary May outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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The preliminary June outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
Precipitation Outlook
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Preliminary outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
July Temperature Outlook
July Precipitation Outlook
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Summer Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
June, July, and August Temperature Outlook
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Precipitation Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
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These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
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