This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog
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Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link
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April 11, 2017
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Rain ending over our eastern counties. Patchy fog possible late.
Temperatures: MO ~ 46 to 50 IL ~ 46 to 50 KY ~ 46 to 50 TN ~ 48 to 50
Winds: North and northeast winds at 4 to 8 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways early in the evening over our eastern counties (mostly east of LBL) Perhaps some late night fog.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 40% (eastern counties) TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: None for most of the area. Rain ending over our eastern counties.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
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April 12, 2017
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny with a few passing clouds. Mild. Nice day anticipated.
Temperatures: MO ~ 74 to 78 IL ~ 74 to 78 KY ~ 74 to 78 TN ~ 74 to 78
Winds: East winds at 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Sunrise will be at 6:22 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:27 p.m.
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear.
Temperatures: MO ~ 52 to 58 IL ~ 52 to 56 KY ~ 52 to 58 TN ~ 54 to 58
Winds: East and southeast winds at 8 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
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April 13, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. Perhaps an isolated shower or storm over the western portions of southeast Missouri.
Temperatures: MO ~ 74 to 78 IL ~ 74 to 78 KY ~ 74 to 78 TN ~ 74 to 78
Winds: Southeast winds becoming southwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? For most of the area, none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verifysible.
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:21 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:28 p.m.
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 56 to 62 IL ~ 56 to 62 KY ~ 56 to 62 TN ~ 56 to 62
Winds: South and southwest winds at 8 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps some lightning and wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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April 14, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. A shower or thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 75 to 80 IL ~ 75 to 80 KY ~ 75 to 80 TN ~ 75 to 80
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps some lightning and wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts.
Sunrise will be at 6:19 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:29 p.m.
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance for a shower or thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 60 to 65 IL ~ 60 to 65 KY ~ 60 to 65 TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds: South and southwest winds at 8 mph with gusts to 10 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps some lightning and wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
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Saturday will deliver a 20% for rain. Mild with highs into the 70’s.
Saturday night rain chances increase to at least 60% after 11 pm
Sunday morning ~ A good chance for showers and storms (at least the first half of the day).
Sunday afternoon ~ Questions on timing of rain leaving the area. Plan on some showers, but monitor updates.
PWAT values will be high Saturday night into next week. Perhaps some heavy downpours.
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day
Severe thunderstorm outlook.
Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 60 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Tuesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Wednesday and Wednesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Thursday into Sunday: Some storms area possible. It is too soon to know if severe weather is a concern.
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Your day by day analysis
Tuesday night into the weekend:
Some of you picked up 0.25″ to 0.50″ of rain over the past 36 hours. Other areas picked up very little rainfall. Our rain maker is moving off to the east and that will leave us with a couple of dry days.
Fog can’t be ruled out on Wednesday morning. Winds might stay up just enough to keep the fog from becoming a problem. Keep this in mind if you have to travel early Wednesday morning.
A warming trend is anticipated on Wednesday into the weekend. I suspect some areas might hit 80 degrees by Friday and Saturday.
A weak disturbance will brush our region on Thursday and Friday. The best chance for a stray shower or thunderstorm, on Thursday, will be over southeast Missouri The further west you travel the more likely a shower will occur. Smaller chances over southwest Illinois.
The GFS guidance is painting scattered showers and storms in the region on Friday, but other guidance does not agree with this. We will be fairly close to a disturbance and that should be enough to at least keep some chance for scattered showers and storms in the forecast. For now, I will cap rain chances on Friday at 30%. This may need to be adjusted as confidence increases in the forecast.
Higher rain chances should arrive by Saturday night and Sunday. The timing of the rain will need to be monitored. Rain may linger into Sunday afternoon. Confidence on this part of the forecast is lower than normal.
Check out the NAM model temperature forecast for Wednesday through Saturday. Let’s hope this verifies. Sure does look nice (temp wise).
Wednesday afternoon temperature forecast via the NAM guidance
Thursday afternoon NAM model guidance highs
Friday afternoon NAM model guidance forecast temperatures
Saturday afternoon NAM guidance temperature forecast
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Regional Radar
The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue. 2015 through current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC. I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.
I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas. I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
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WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.
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