April 11, 2018: Non-subscriber post. Windy and warmer.

You can expect strong and gusty winds over the next 72 hours. Winds may occasionally top 40 mph. These are gradient winds. What are gradient winds? Winds caused by the tightening of barometric pressure. In other words, a storm system is coming. This system will spread widespread rain into the region by Friday night into Saturday morning.

Rain will linger longer over our eastern counties vs western.

The main question mark in the forecast is what time does that rain come to an end?

It appears that the cold front will slow its forward speed as it moves across the Mississippi River. The slowing of the front will cause showers and thunderstorms to produce locally heavy rain amounts across mainly western Kentucky and western Tennessee.

Elsewhere, the rain will peak late Friday night into the first half of Saturday.

If you have outdoor plans Friday night into Saturday evening then check updates and radars. We will have rain in the region.

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April 11, 2018
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. A few clouds from time to time. Warmer. It will feel more like spring. Breezy, at times.
Temperatures: MO ~ 64 to 68 IL ~ 64 to 68 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: South and southwest at 4 to 8 mph early becoming 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 35+ mph after 12 PM
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise: 6:25 AM

Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Intervals of clouds. Not as cold. Strong winds. A slight chance of a sprinkle.
Temperatures: MO ~ 50 to 55 IL ~ 50 to 55 KY ~ 52 to 56 TN ~ 52 to 56
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
Winds: South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 35+ mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Sunset: 7:25 PM

April 12, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Wind alert. Warmer. Spring temperatures. Mostly sunny with a few passing clouds. Breezy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 74 to 78 IL ~ 74 to 78 KY ~ 75 to 78 TN ~ 75 to 78
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: South and southwest at 15 to 35 mph with higher gusts
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Gusty winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise: 6:24 AM

Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Wind alert. Mostly clear early. A few clouds late. Mild. Breezy. A fast-moving late-night shower possible across southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.
Temperatures: MO ~ 56 to 62 IL ~ 56 to 60 KY ~ 58 to 62 TN ~ 58 to 64
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Winds: South and southwest at 15 to 30 mph and gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Gusty winds
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:26 PM

April 13, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Wind alert. Partly sunny, breezy, and warm. Odds favor a mostly dry day. Isolated morning and early afternoon showers. There will be an increase in rain and thunderstorm chances late in the day (esp over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois).
Temperatures: MO ~ 74 to 78 IL ~ 74 to 78 KY ~ 75 to 78 TN ~ 75 to 78
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated.
Winds: South at 15 to 30 mph and gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps wet roadways. Perhaps lightning. Showers early on would be scattered. Late in the day or evening is when activity should increase.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time. Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates and radars.
Sunrise: 6:22 AM

The timing of the cold frontal passage Friday night and Saturday will be key to the weekend forecast.

Some of the guidance slows the front considerably Saturday. If this occurs then rain will last longer into the afternoon and evening. This is most likely east of the Mississippi River.

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Wind alert. Becoming cloudy. Increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms. Some locally heavy rain possible and gusty winds near storms. Mild temperatures.
Temperatures: MO ~ 56 to 62 IL ~ 56 to 62 KY ~ 58 to 64 TN ~ 58 to 64
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 90% IL ~ 80% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Increasing coverage overnight. Becoming widespread.
Winds: South at 10 to 25 mph and gusty.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roads and lightning. Monitor the threat of severe weather.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? Severe weather can’t be ruled out. The greater risk will be over southeast Missouri and perhaps southwest Illinois. Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. The later into the evening the greater the rain chances.
Sunset: 7:27 PM

Caution: Saturday’s forecast is low confidence. The front may stall in our region. If the front stalls then rain will continue well into the afternoon and evening hours. I am monitoring this portion of the forecast.

April 14, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Widespread showers and thunderstorms. Rain may taper across southeast Missouri but continue elsewhere. The front may slow/stall and that would mean rain chances continuing across southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee. Confidence in how long the rain lingers is lower than normal. Have a plan B if you have outdoor events.
Temperatures: MO ~ 64 to 68 IL ~ 64 to 68 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 80% TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread before 12 pm. Coverage in the afternoon will depend on the speed of the front.
Winds: South winds becoming west at 10 to 20 mph and gusty. Winds over southeast Missouri may switch to west/southwest.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Monitor the risk of intense thunderstorms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High during the morning and then LOW after 12 pm.
Is severe weather expected? Some storms could be intense across western Kentucky and Tennessee. Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B in the morning and then monitor the afternoon forecast.
Sunrise: 6:21 AM

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Showers possible early. Turning cooler. Gusty winds.
Temperatures: MO ~ 36 to 42 IL ~ 36 to 42 KY ~ 38 to 44 TN ~ 40 to 44
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: West and northwest at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 25 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:28 PM

April 15, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Intervals of clouds. Cooler. A rain shower possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 45 to 50 IL ~ 45 to 50 KY ~ 46 to 52 TN ~ 48 to 52
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: West at 10 to 20 mph and gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise: 6:20 AM

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Intervals of clouds. Colder. Light showers or snow flurries possible. If the clouds clear then frost would be possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 35 to 40 IL ~ 35 to 40 KY ~ 35 to 40 TN ~ 35 to 40
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Winds: West and northwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:29 PM

April 16, 2018
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Intervals of clouds. Chilly.
Temperatures: MO ~ 48 to 54 IL ~ 45 to 50 KY ~ 45 to 50 TN ~ 46 to 52
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: Variable at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise: 6:18 AM

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Frost possible. Chilly.
Temperatures: MO ~ 35 to 40 IL ~ 35 to 40 KY ~ 35 to 40 TN ~ 35 to 40
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds:
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps frost.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:30 PM

RAIN TOTALS

Let’s take a look at precipitation totals for the Friday through Saturday night event.

Locally heavy rain is possible. A few severe storms are also a possibility.

The key to the heavy totals will be whether or not the system slows over our region.

Data is mixed on this idea. I have pushed the rain deeper into Saturday. The best chance of this happening will be across the eastern half of the region. That would include portions of southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

All of the guidance has trended slower with the frontal passage.

The rain may end sooner across southeast Missouri and perhaps portions of southwest Illinois. Again, timing the front is key.

Either way, plan on rain as we move deeper into Friday night and Saturday.

Have a plan B if you have outdoor plans Friday night and Saturday.

These totals won’t be exact, of course. Just take a general idea from the graphics.

Notice the LARGE differences? That is because some of the models do not slow the system. The EC model is the heaviest. It is also the slowest in pushing the system away from our region.

The GFS model guidance

The GEM model guidance

The EC model

NOAA/WPC rain totals forecast

Interactive Radars:
Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.

Questions? Broken links? Other?

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

Wednesday through Thursday night: Severe weather is not anticipated.

Friday into Saturday: Thunderstorms are likely Friday night into Saturday evening. I can’t rule out strong thunderstorms.

A few severe thunderstorms are possible across southeast Missouri Friday night. Any shift in the track of the area of low pressure will change the severe weather outlook.

Monitor updates.

On Saturday, the risk of intense storms will shift into Kentucky and Tennessee.

Sunday into Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.

The analog (analog forecasting is forecasting an event based on past similar events) severe weather charts show the best chance of severe weather to our west Friday and Friday night. Southeast Missouri will need to be monitored.

The deeper red is where severe weather is more likely.

Saturday the risk shifts eastward. Confidence in the severe weather risk on Saturday is low. Let’s keep an eye on it. You can see the numbers are not quite as large as Friday’s risk.

Here is the Storm Prediction Center’s severe weather risk outline for both Friday (first) and Saturday (second)

The light yellow is where sub-severe storms are anticipated.

The dark green is a level one out of five risk. The yellow is a level two out of five risk. The orange is a level three out of five risk. One is the lower risk. Five is the highest risk.

And, here is the Saturday outlook. Keep in mind that these can and often do shift around a bit as forecast confidence increases.

This is a day four outlook. They don’t do categories that far out. They simply assign a percentage risk.

Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

Live lightning data: Click here.

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

The spring and preliminary summer outlooks have been posted for subscribers. Scroll down to see the outlook.

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Weather Headlines

Welcome to spring!
Much warmer today through Friday.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms develop from west to east Friday afternoon into Saturday afternoon. Locally heavy rain possible.
Questions remain about when the rain ends.
Much cooler Sunday and Monday. I can’t rule out frost if clouds clear.
WeatherBrains has been updated.

Welcome to spring weather!

We are finally going to have a few days with warmer weather! It won’t last, but we will take what we can get. Right?

There will be a price to pay for the warmer weather but I guess you probably knew that. Rain will eventually be the end result. Hey, that is better than snow. Right?

You can expect high temperatures well into the 60’s today. Well into the 70’s on both Thursday and Friday. Gusty southerly winds will also be developing. Wind gusts above 30 mph will be possible, especially Thursday into Friday night.

The strong winds will be in response to the tight barometric pressure gradient.

Let’s look at some wind gust maps from the GFS model.

This might be a bit overdone. Shave 5 to 10 mph off these numbers. I certainly can’t rule out some gusts to 40 mph. More frequent, however, will be gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range.

4 AM Thursday

4 PM Thursday

1 AM Friday

1 PM Friday

Gusty winds will continue into Saturday.

Clouds will increase late Thursday night and Friday morning across southeast Missouri and then eventually the rest of the area, as well.

We may still have quite a bit of sunshine on Friday.

A few light showers may arrive as early as late Thursday night across southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Rain and thunderstorm chances will increase from west to east as we push into Friday evening and night.

The NAM guidance shows a few spotty showers late Thursday night and Friday morning.

7 am Friday future-cast radar.

At this time, I would not cancel any Friday outdoor activities. I would monitor updates and radars. It is possible that we remain mostly dry into the afternoon hours. This is especially true as you move east of the Mississippi River.

By Friday night, rain and thunderstorms will overspread the region from west to east. Locally heavy rain is possible.

Here is the NAM model guidance future-cast radar. The timestamp is located in the upper left portion of the graphic.

Green is rain. Yellow is heavier rain.

There will be plenty of moisture for this system to work with.

PWAT values will be well above average. When you see a prolonged period of high PWAT values then you can expect heavy rain. The dark blue and purple shades on this chart represent higher PWAT values.

You will typically find me talking about PWAT values during the spring and summer months.

Basically, it means there is a lot of moisture in the atmosphere.

Blizzard conditions are likely across the Northern Plains. Heavy thunderstorms are likely in the Missouri and Ohio Valleys. This will be a significant late winter storm for portions of the United States. It is a dynamic system.

You can see the heavy snow and ice on this map. The snow is represented by the blue colors. You can also see the red L. That is the center of low pressure. Notice the black lines encircling the low. Those are isobars. Equals lines of barometric pressure. Closely packed isobars equal gusty winds.

The biggest question in our region will be when to bring the rain to an end.

If you have been with me over the last few days you will remember that this has been my main forecast dilemma.

The GEM model was the first to show the potential slowing of the cold front. Now, almost every other model is showing the same. There remain some differences, but they all slow the cold front.

This slowing will mean rain chances continuing into Saturday afternoon and perhaps even Saturday night.

The best chance of the rain lingering will be east of the Mississippi River. There is a lower than normal confidence in this portion of the forecast.

If you have outdoor plans Friday night into Saturday night then I would suggest having a plan B. It is possible, if not likely, that rain will be an issue. Again, especially true east of the Mississippi River.

The wrap around from this system may be quite large. That will mean lingering clouds, colder temperatures, gusty winds, and a few showers or snow flurries continuing into Sunday or even Sunday night.

Here is the 700 mb relative humidity chart. Notice the “wrap-around” moisture? That means lingering clouds.

The timestamp is in the upper left portion of the graphics animation.

You can also see the clouds on these two charts.

7 AM Sunday cloud chart.

7 PM Sunday

Weather Brains is a weekly podcast/video for those who love weather and want more!

Weather Brains episode number 638

Our guest WeatherBrain for this episode is Matt Solum. Matt is the Decision Support Services Program Manager at Western Region Headquarters of the National Weather Service in Salt Lake City, UT. Matt was in the California State Operations Center, basically the state EOC, supporting their full activation as a result of the fires in southern California. Their team was providing forecast information primarily for the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (CalOES) and FEMA as it was a joint operation. They also provided weather information to other partners in the room including EPA, CalTrans, DOT, CalEPA, etc. He was deployed to both the October fires and the massive/prolonged December fires. Welcome to WeatherBrains, Matt.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

Extremes: 101 at Thermal, CA, and 2 at Raco, MI
Relatively calm weather across US
Threat for severe wx in Lower Mississippi River Valley on Friday
Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
and more!

Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.

ANNOUNCEMENT!

I am working on a few new items for us.

As always, I am grateful for all of you and the support you bring to my passion.

There was never a plan.

All of this started with a severe weather email list of ten or twenty people after the killer 2003 tornadoes. That grew to what you see today.

From that tornado, the Shadow Angel Foundation was born. We delivered hundreds of teddy bears to Pulaski, Massac, and Pope Counties. The “storm” bears went to Head Start, Kindergarten, and first graders. Included with the bears was a package of information for parents on how to talk to their child about tornadoes and severe weather.

We then worked with the Metropolis Planet on producing the Terror in the Night tornado book. The book was filled with personal accounts of that horrible night. Many people said the book helped bring closure.

Since then we have delivered thousands of teddy bears to Child Watch and Pasac. The counselors use the teddy bears to help the children feel safe.

Soon after that, the late Kent King (radio DJ and emergency manager) asked me to cover weather for McCracken County OEM/DES. I was COM 10 on the scanner feeds.

Ed Duff, with McCracken County Rescue, now utilizes my services during severe weather events along with two other local counties. They receive one on one attention during events.

That led me to Sue Henry with the American Red Cross where I was able to help during Hurricane Katrina and Rita. An experience that changed my life.

Around that time social media exploded onto the scene. My personal Facebook page quickly filled up with 5000 people. The limit Facebook allows for personal pages.

Facebook then started pages. I was able to make a page just for weather.

It was soon after that that I bought a portion of my family farm back. We built my house and the Weather Observatory.

Jason Darnall helped put together an amazing weather center. Many hours of work.

Then the Paducah Sun then asked me to do weather for them.

That led to the amazing team at Innovations Branding House. They produced my Weather Observatory website.

About four years ago there was a falling out with some local meteorologists. It bothered me so much that I almost quit weather.

The Paducah Sun even ran a story that I was taking a break from weather. I was taking a year off.

Several other local meteorologists then came to me and told me to brush it off. They encouraged me to start a weather business. They explained what I could bring to the local weather table.

Soon after that, as fate would have it, Preston Ursini and the Fire Horn team asked me to think about producing text messages during severe weather. That led to Weather Talk. That then led to the Weather Talk app.

Had it not been for that low point, I don’t think Weather Talk would have ever come to be. Life is funny like that. Something bad turned into something good.

I often times tell people that I have the best Facebook friends, enthusiasts, and followers. It is rare that someone complains on the weather page.

Some of you have basically become like family to me. When severe weather strikes it becomes personal to both you and me.

Here is what we are going to bring you.

1. We are coming out with a major app update for subscribers. We plan on having radar in the app, as well as your usual app/text messages to the daily blog, video, and Facebook updates.

2. We are completely revamping the WeatherTalk website. Preston Ursini, from The Fire Horn, is working alongside Innovations Branding House to complete this task. The Fire Horn is who I partner with to make all of this work.

3. I am going to try and stick to a daily schedule. That way everyone knows when to expect an update. See the comment section.

4. Many of you have asked me to do Facebook Live video updates during winter storms and severe weather outbreaks. I have spent the last week learning how to use OBS studio software. This software will allow me to deliver you Facebook Live events. You will get your wish.

5. We are moving towards a flat subscription fee of $5 a month. Everyone that is paying $3 a month will be grandfathered in. If you want to voluntarily upgrade to the $5 plan then that would be great. We will roll this out when the new website is finished.

Right now we have a $3, $5, and $10 plan. The only difference is how many cell phone numbers you can add.

With the $5 a month plan we will let everyone have up to seven phone numbers. That should cover your family members. Sound good?

6. I have streamlined the digital media blog. That would be the talk.weathertalk.com site. You will find that is has been organized.

Remember, I work for you. I don’t work for television or radio. I am your employee.

You have a personal meteorologist. And, as everyone knows, I put my heart and soul into this.

Subscribers will receive the following:

You may subscribe at www.beaudodsonweather.com

1. The app/text updates during tornado outbreaks and all other weather events.
2. Rapid-fire tornado app/text messages. I send out numerous updates as I track the tornado. Some of you can testify to these rapid-fire tornado messages.
3. Daily weather forecast sent to your app/text.
4. Link sent to the app/text to the daily blog and Facebook updates on non-severe weather days. Instead of waiting around for me to post a new Facebook thread you can receive it in your app/text.
5. Link sent to the app/text to the daily blog and Facebook updates on severe weather or winter storm days.
6. We are updating the weather map page on the website. That page will have thousands of daily weather maps for you to access.
7. I answer every email you send. I try to answer every private message you send to me.
8. We run three hour live feeds during severe weather where we attempt to answer as many questions as possible. Same for winter storms.
9. You receive access to special short and long-range video updates from the Bamwx team (who help me with daily videos).
10. You receive access to special short, long-range, and seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks.
11. Your subscription fee helps six local charities (see comment section for more information).

Normal monthly out of pocket operating costs (see comment section) are around $2000.00.

The service I provide is unique. I don’t believe there is anything else like it in the country. Not for this price and not for the volume of information you receive.

We hope to have the new app and website finished soon. Watch for announcements.

New schedule

Example of some of my rapid-fire tornado app/text messages.

Make sure you have app/text notification ONE turned on. This one is called WeatherOne. You can make sure that is on by signing into your www.weathertalk.com account and clicking the personal notification settings tab. Make sure WeatherOne is on (green). Green is on. Red is off.

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.