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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️
April 10th through April 17th
Current risk: NONE.
Current confidence level: HIGH.
Comment: A few severe thunderstorms are likely this afternoon and evening. This time around, the concern will be large hail. A small chance of damaging wind. The tornado risk is minimal.
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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Scattered lightning is likely today/tonight. I am monitoring Monday and Tuesday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? POSSIBLE. We will have a risk of large hail this afternoon and evening. A small chance of damaging wind. The tornado risk is minimal. I will monitor early next week.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO. Ongoing river and overland flooding will continue.
4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
5. Will temperatures rise above 90 degrees? NO.
6. Will the heat index rise above 100 degrees? NO.
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A quick forecast glance. Your 48-hour forecast Graphics
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Forecast discussion.
- A chance of thunderstorms tonight into Thursday evening. Some storms will produce hail.
- Dry Friday into Sunday. Warmer Saturday and Sunday.
- There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday.
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Major flooding continues in some counties.
Avoid flooded roadways. Water continues to recede in many areas. Larger rivers, however, continue to rise.
River and lake stages. Forecasts. Click here.
A cold front will push into the region later today and tonight.
Scattered thunderstorms will develop during the early to mid-afternoon hours. Those storms will move southeast at 35 mph.
Some of the storms could become severe.
The primary concern with this event will be large hail. A few reports of damaging wind will be possible, as well. The tornado risk is minimal.
In the most robust thunderstorms, some hail stones could reach up to golf ball size.
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The peak time frame for thunderstorms will be 1 PM to 11 PM. With the peak severe time frame being 2:30 PM to 8 PM.
Once the sun sets, we will lose daytime heating. That will cause the thunderstorms to weaken and eventually dissipate.
Here is the official Storm Prediction Center outlook. The dark green is the level one severe risk (lowest). The yellow is the level two severe weather risk.
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You can see the CAPE in this graphic. CAPE is instability. Think of CAPE as energy. Thunderstorms feed off of CAPE.
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Overall, it is a decent setup for large hail reports. Then, a lower risk of damaging wind.
Monitor your Beau Dodson Weather App. I will send out some messages.
Thunderstorm chances will push off to the southeast during the evening and overnight hours. A few showers may linger into Friday (light).
Friday will be chilly.
I can’t rule out frost Friday night and Saturday morning.
Rainfall totals will mostly be light. Thunderstorms can always enhance rain totals.
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A bit warmer on Saturday and Sunday. Sunday might end up being the nicest day of the weekend.
Another cold front enters the region on Monday and Tuesday. This will bring additional thunderstorms. For now, the severe risk appears low. I will monitor it.
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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
Hrrr model
This is the FV3 model.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 67 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 46 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription. This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
If the radar is not working, then email me: Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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We do have some sponsors! Check them out.
Roof damage from recent storms? Link – Click here
INTEGRITY ROOFING AND EXTERIORS!
⛈️ Roof or gutter damage from recent storms? Today’s weather is sponsored by Integrity Roofing. Check out their website at this link https://www.ourintegritymatters.com/
Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
Weather Talk is one of those ways! Now, I have another product for you and your family.
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Want to add more products to your Beau Dodson Weather App?
Receive daily videos, weather blog updates on normal weather days and severe weather and winter storm days, your county by county weather forecast, and more!
Here is how to do add those additional products to your app notification settings!
Here is a video on how to update your Beau Dodson Weather payment.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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