Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

2 PM Update

Showers and storms over Missouri and Arkansas will push east/northeast this afternoon.  Some of the storms will reach into our region later today.  Monitor radars if you have outdoor plans.  The storms will first reach southeast Missouri – far western area.  That would likely be after 3 pm.

Watches and warnings – click image

11 AM Update

Changes in the forecast…

It appears that at least scattered showers and thunderstorms will push into southeast Missouri this afternoon and evening.  These storms might hold together enough to also bring precipitation into southern Illinois and western Kentucky/northwest Tennessee.

A few storms today could become severe.  The main concern would be the western counties in our area.  Southeast Missouri being the center of attention.

If a severe thunderstorm does develop then large hail and high winds would be the main concern.  Tornado threat is minimal.

In addition to this…scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop tonight along the leading edge of some strong winds aloft.  That means that we might have precipitation on Thursday morning.

Some of you have outdoor plans on Thursday morning.  I can’t promise you that it won’t rain.

Multiple rounds of rain/storms will be possible later today/tonight into Friday.  Locally heavy rain could be a problem for some areas.  Rainfall totals of 1-2″ will likely occur in spots.  I can’t promise you that some places won’t pick up 2-3″ of rain.

We do have a threat for severe storms on Thursday/Thursday night and Friday, as well.

Graphics below…

Operation SKYWARN indicates that parts of our region will be under the risk for a few severe thunderstorms later today and tonight.

The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded our southwest counties to a marginal and slight risk.  Remember, a slight risk for severe thunderstorms actually means that a few severe storms are likely to occur, but widespread severe weather is not anticipated.

Latest map

Latest future-cast radar does indicate some thunderstorms later today.

Future-cast radar is basically a model idea’s of where shower and storms could occur later today.

The above image is around 6 pm to 7 pm

The image below is around 7 pm to 9 pm

And here below is the future-cast radar for around 10 pm to 12 am

Rainfall totals through Friday night – locally heavy rain likely.

8 AM Update…

Updated rainfall graphics below in the rainfall forecast

Here is the latest severe weather outlook for Thursday and Friday.  The overall risk for severe weather at any given location is small.  This is a marginal set-up for severe storms.  With that said, hail has been prolific in storms over the last 24 hours to our south and southwest.  So, hail is a concern.

Otherwise, a few reports of high winds can’t be ruled out.  Tornado risk is minimal on Thursday and Friday in our local counties.   It is not zero.  Rarely will the tornado risk be zero when you have a few severe storms possible.

On Thursday Operation SKYWARN indicates that there is a risk for a few severe thunderstorms in our region.  Hail and gusty winds being the main concern.  This does not look like a big outbreak of severe storms.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms likely Thursday afternoon into Friday.  Locally heavy rain.

For Friday, Operation SKYWARN indicates a chance for a couple of severe thunderstorms in our region.  The overall risk is small, at any given location.

Also…

A few storms may form in Missouri later this afternoon.  These storms would move northeast.  Locally heavy rain, lightning, and small hail can’t be ruled out.

Future-cast HRRR Radar for this afternoon.  This image is from weatherbell.com

This is around 5 pm to 7 pm

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.

Remember that weather evolves.  Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.

The forecast numbers below may vary quite a bit across the region.  These are averages.

Wednesday –  Just a few clouds.  Otherwise, sunny sky conditions and mild.  A chance for a few afternoon storms moving out of Missouri into Illinois and Kentucky.  Scattered.  Highs into the 70’s.  South winds at 10 mph.  My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but during the afternoon some storms will be possible.  Monitor radars.

Morning School Bus Stop Weather –  Partly sunny and cool.  Morning temperatures in the upper 40’s to lower 50’s.  Light winds.
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Afternoon School Bus Stop Weather – Partly sunny and mild.  Highs into the 70’s.  South/southwest winds at 10 mph.

Wednesday night –  Just a few clouds.  A chance for a shower or thunderstorms before midnight.  A better chance of a few showers and storms after midnight..  Lows will be in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s.   South/southeast winds at 10 mph becoming southwest at 10 mph.  My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Check radars.  Some storms will be possible.

Thursday – Becoming cloudy with a chance for showers and thunderstorms.  Chances for precipitation will increase during the afternoon hours.  Highs will be in the 70’s.  South/southwest winds at 10-15 mph and gusty at times.  My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Morning – no.  Afternoon – monitor.  Monitor radars.  Thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon hours.

Thursday night – Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely.  Some locally heavy storms possible.  Lows will be in the upper 50’s.   Winds starting out southwesterly and becoming northwest late at 10-15 mph.    My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is  high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Better have a plan B.

Friday – Cloudy with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures may fall during the day into the 50’s.  Northwest winds at 10-15 mph.  Gusty during the late morning and afternoon hours.  My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is  high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  It is possible you will have to cancel some plans on Friday.  Have a plan B.

Saturday and Sunday – dry weather conditions.  Damp ground conditions.  Morning temperatures likely will be in the 30’s on Saturday and perhaps upper 30’s and lower 40’s on Sunday.  Chilly weather.  Highs will warm into the 50’s on Saturday and perhaps upper 50’s to middle 60’s on Sunday.

Rain chances increase on Sunday night and Monday.

Eclipse Forecast – we might clear out in time for the eclipse.  We will have to deal with clouds on Friday into Friday night.  The question will be whether it clears out in time for the Saturday morning eclipse.  No promises, but there is a chance.

When?  Saturday morning.  The moon may set before the start of the total eclipse, keep that in mind.
More information on the eclipse – click here

Central Daylight Time (April 4, 2015)
Partial umbral eclipse begins: 5:16 a.m. CDT
Total eclipse begins: 6:58 a.m. CDT
Greatest eclipse: 7:00 a.m. CDT
Total eclipse ends: 7:03 a.m. CDT
Moon may set before start of total eclipse

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Current Temperatures Around The Local Area

Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

 

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…

Highlights

1.  A warm day is on tap for the region
2.  Thunderstorm chances increase on Thursday into Thursday night/Friday morning
3.  A few severe thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday/Thursday night.
4.  Colder be the weekend

An active weather pattern is underway across the region.  Severe thunderstorms on Tuesday afternoon produced hail up to the size of half dollars over southeast Missouri.  Several reports of penny size hail up to quarter size, as well.  I did not receive any high wind reports.

These storms formed along a boundary.  They formed about where they were forecast to occur.  The intensity was a little stronger than expected.

The storms moved southeast into western Tennessee as the evening wore on.

We will have a fairly calm day across the region today.  Warm conditions.  It will once again feel like spring.  I doubt any of you will complain about that.

An area of showers and storms will form over southern Missouri on Wednesday.  This area of showers/storms will move east/northeast into our region during the late afternoon and evening hours.  Monitor radars if you have outdoor plans.

Thunderstorms will increase on Thursday and Thursday night ahead of a strong cold front.  These thunderstorms could produce a few reports of severe weather.

We may see one area of showers and storms early Thursday morning.  If this happens then perhaps it would be between 4 am and 8 am.  It should be in and out rather quickly.  Low confidence on the placement and timing.

Storms will develop from the northwest during Thursday afternoon and some additional storms will form over Missouri and Arkansas.  Storms will initially move southeast from the St Louis area.  But, as the front slows down we may see storms take on a more easterly movement.

Locally heavy rain will be possible with this event.  Similar to the last few events.

Monitor updates as we move forward.  There could be some severe weather watches and warnings on Thursday into Thursday night.

Friday might bring additional showers and thunderstorms.  The intensity of Friday’s weather will be highly dependent on the placement of the cold front.

Let’s track the rain and storms on this future-cast radar from the weatherbell.com WRF computer model.  You get the general idea of how Thursday might unfold.

A line of showers and thunderstorms will push towards the region from the northwest.  It will move southeast.  Eventually on Thursday night the front will stall near our region.  Additional rounds of thunderstorms will occur.

There is some debate as to what time thunderstorms will move into our region on Thursday.  I want to see Wednesday’s data to help me fine tune the forecast.

Keep this in mind when viewing the images below.  Some data holds off thunderstorms until Thursday evening and night.

Future-cast radar from the weatherbell.com WRF model.

This is the 6 am radar view.  We may see some storms move into southeast Missouri early Thursday morning and enter parts of southern Illinois.  These should move out to the northeast rather quickly

Then the 8 am radar

Then this is around the 10 am time frame

 

Future-cast radar for the 12 pm through 2 pm time frame.  If this model is correct then we will be dealing with some rain and storms fairly early in the day.  There is disagreement about this topic among meteorologists.  So, monitor updates if you have concerns.

Moving ahead to the Thursday afternoon time frame.  This is around 2 pm to 4 pm.  You can see a line of storms over parts of our area.  New development is occurring back to the west and northwest.

Later on Thursday night.  This is around 10 pm to 12 am.  You can see heavy storms in our region.  These storms could produce locally heavy rain and even some severe weather.

Operation SKYWARN indicates that some severe thunderstorms will be possible in our region Thursday into Thursday night.

I am sure there will be some adjustments in this map with new updates.

Colder air arrives for the weekend.  Expect widespread 30’s again in the region.  Saturday afternoon will also be cool.  The ground will still be damp from this weeks rains.

Sunday will start off quite cool, but warm into the 50’s and 60’s during the afternoon hours.  Chilly morning.

See the extended forecast for the latest information on the next storm system.

Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —

I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page

 

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The severe weather outlooks change each morning and afternoon.  I will try to post the updated maps.  The Storm Prediction Center likes to shift everything around as new data arrives.  It usually does not change the actual forecast outcome.  Either way, I will post the most up to date information at the top of the page.

 

The threat for a few severe thunderstorms on Thursday and Thursday night/Friday morning is my main concern.  Locally heavy rain of 1-2″ in spots, as well.

The most intense storms will produce 60 mph wind gusts, quarter size hail or larger, heavy rain, and lightning.  The tornado risk is minimal.

Some question on whether or not severe weather will be a concern on Friday.  I will update as new data becomes available.

 

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Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Rivers have fallen dramatically over the last week.  Thus, I dropped the graphs from the page.  You can, however, view them by clicking the link below.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…

 

The wild card tells you where the uncertainties are in the forecast

Wild card in this forecast –  Will someone reach 80 degrees today?  That is the wild card.  We had one or two spots on Tuesday that reached 80° (Poplar Bluff area).

 

Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours?  Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

Thunderstorm threat level is ONE for today (Wednesday and Wednesday night).  Treat level is THREE for Thursday and Thursday night/Friday morning.

Thursday Severe Weather Outlook –  Severe storms are possible
Friday Severe Weather Outlook – Monitor updates concerning Friday
Saturday Severe Weather Outlook –  Severe weather is not in the forecast
Sunday Severe Weather Outlook –  Severe weather is not in the forecast
Monday Severe Weather Outlook – Monitor updates
Tuesday Severe Weather Outlook – Monitor updates

Will I need to take action?

Yes, monitor updates concerning the potential for a few severe thunderstorms on Thursday into Friday morning.  Hail and high winds will be the main concern.

 

 

How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?

Best chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms will be on Thursday into at least Friday morning.  Some questions on the track of the area of low pressure on Friday.  If the storm tracks further north then more storms are possible on Friday.  If the system tracks further south then some general rain and perhaps a few storms in our area.

Rainfall totals in some areas could exceed 1″.  Locally heavier amounts likely.

 

This section of the blog is speculative forecast information.  Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation.  Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.

Couple of concerns for the long range

1.  Cold weather on Saturday and Sunday morning.  It does appear we will dip into the 30’s.  Not sure if we will have to worry about frost.  It will be chilly.  Afternoon highs will be in the 50’s on Saturday and perhaps 60’s on Sunday.

2.  A strong cold front and storm system next week could produce severe weather over our region.  Monitor updates.

Here is the system in question for next week.  It does not move very fast.  That could lead to a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms.

This is the Tuesday weather map – you can see the area of low pressure.  That likely means a warm front near our region.  You can also see the precipitation in our region.

This is the Wednesday weather map.  Lots of precipitation in our region (if this model is correct)

Thursday weather map (April 9th), according to the GFS.  Again, lots of rain and storms in our region.

We have some time to monitor next weeks weather.  Climo suggest we might experience some severe thunderstorms.  Monitor updates as we move forward.

 

We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —

We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here

NOTE:  Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes).  Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.

Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan:  Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here

 

For the most up to date maps – click here

 

 

 

Please visit your local National Weather Service Office by clicking here. The National Weather Service Office, for our region, is located in Paducah, Kentucky.  They have a lot of maps and information on their site.  Local people…local forecasters who care about our region.

 

Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).

The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS).  I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.  Just need to finish two Spanish classes!

I am a member of the American Meteorological Society.  I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.  And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

• Communicate in simple terms
• To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
• Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
• Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
• Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.  In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.  I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more

This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog

 

Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.

 

WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions

 

WPSD TV 6 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Kentucky Road Conditions & Kentucky Highway and Interstate Cameras

 

Benton, Kentucky Tower Camera – Click here for full view

 

 

You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.