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Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
Avoid extension cords with space heaters. Every year our region experiences house fires because of this.
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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.
Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.
Today’s almanac numbers from a few select local cities.
The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.
The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.
It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.
Then, it shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).
It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.
It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.
The sunrise and sunset are also shown.
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48-hour forecast
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Monday to Monday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? NO.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? NO.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO.
4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? Yes. Today into Wednesday. I will monitor this coming weekend.
6. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? Yes. Snow showers today over the region. Flurries possible tonight. I am monitoring Thursday and Thursday night, as well.
7. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? Not at this time. Monitor Thursday’s forecast.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines
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Fire weather risk level.
There will be an increased house fire risk this weekend into next week. This is because of cold temperatures.
Monday: 4. Low risk.
Monday night: 4. Low risk.
Tuesday: 4. Low risk.
Tuesday night. 4. Low risk.
Fire Weather Discussion
Some more light snow is possible today, mainly in the south. Otherwise, very cold conditions will continue through Wednesday morning. South winds return Wednesday and we will warm up above freezing, but another Arctic cold front late Thursday will drop us back into the deep freeze for Friday and Saturday. It looks like more normal conditions will finally return by next Monday.
A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.
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Monday, January 15, 2024
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Scattered flurries and snow showers. Light accumulation possible in a few spots.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10° to 15°
Southeast Missouri ~ 12° to 15°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 12° to 15°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10° to 15°
Southern Illinois ~ 12° to 14°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 12° to 14°
Far western Kentucky ~ 12° to 14°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 12° to 14°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 12° to 14°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 12° to 14°
Winds will be from this direction: North 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -10° to 10°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold wind chill values. If it snows, then icy roads will be possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B because of the cold and potential snow. Monitor updates.
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:08 AM
Sunset: 5:00 PM .
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Monday Night Forecast: Partly cloud with a chance of snow showers. Bitterly cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ -2° to 2°
Southeast Missouri ~ 2° to 4°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 4° to 6°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ -2° to 2°
Southern Illinois ~ 2° to 4°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 2° to 5°
Far western Kentucky ~ 2° to 4°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 4° to 8°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0° to 5°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 2° to 5°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -15° to -5°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold wind chills. Monitor updates concerning the threat of snow and icy roads.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B because of the cold and potential snow.
Moonrise: 10:08 AM
Moonset: 10:09 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing crescent.
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Tuesday, January 16, 2024
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Partly sunny. A slight chance of flurries.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 14° to 18°
Southeast Missouri ~ 16° to 18°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 16° to 20°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 14° to 18°
Southern Illinois ~ 14° to 18°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 14° to 18°
Far western Kentucky ~ 16° to 18°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 18° to 20°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 18° to 20°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 18° to 20°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -10° to 15°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold wind chill values. If it snows, then icy roads will be possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B because of the cold and potential snow. Monitor updates.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:07 AM
Sunset: 5:02 PM .
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Tuesday Night Forecast: A few clouds. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 4° to 6°
Southeast Missouri ~ 4° to 6°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 4° to 8°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 4° to 6°
Southern Illinois ~ 4° to 6°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 4° to 6°
Far western Kentucky ~ 4° to 6°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 4° to 8°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 4° to 6°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 4° to 8°
Winds will be from this direction: West 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -15° to -5°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold wind chills.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B because of the cold
Moonrise: 10:34 AM
Moonset: 11:20 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing crescent.
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Wednesday, January 17, 2024
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 28° to 32°
Southeast Missouri ~ 28° to 32°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 28° to 32°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 28° to 32°
Southern Illinois ~ 28° to 32°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 28° to 32°
Far western Kentucky ~ 28° to 30°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 28° to 32°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 28° to 32°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 28° to 32°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -5 to -15° early in the morning to and 10 to 20° afternoon
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:07 AM
Sunset: 5:02 PM .
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Wednesday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 18° to 20°
Southeast Missouri ~ 18° to 20°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 18° to 20°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 18° to 20°
Southern Illinois ~ 18° to 20°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 18° to 20°
Far western Kentucky ~ 18° to 20°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 18° to 20°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 18° to 20°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 18° to 20°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 10° to 20°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Moonrise: 11:01 AM
Moonset:
The phase of the moon: First quarter
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Thursday, January 18, 2024
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of rain and snow showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 35°
Southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 35°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 32° to 35°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 32° to 35°
Southern Illinois ~ 32° to 35°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 32° to 35°
Far western Kentucky ~ 32° to 35°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 32° to 35°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 32° to 35°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 33° to 36°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Icy roadways if snow develops.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:07 AM
Sunset: 5:03 PM .
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Thursday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of snow showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10° to 12°
Southeast Missouri ~ 12° to 15°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 12° to 15°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 8° to 12°
Southern Illinois ~ 12° to 14°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 12° to 14°
Far western Kentucky ~ 12° to 14°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 12° to 14°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 12° to 14°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 12° to 14°
Winds will be from this direction: Becoming west northwest at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 10° to 15°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor the chance of snow.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
Moonrise: 11:29 AM
Moonset: 12:28 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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- Bitterly cold weather is the top weather story.
- Patchy light snow Monday and Monday night.
- Monitoring a storm system Thursday/Thursday night.
- More cold weather this coming weekend.
Weather advice:
Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
Use care in the cold weather. Frost bite is a concern.
Slow down, as always, on snow covered roadways. Give yourself extra time (for those areas with snow).
Forecast Discussion
Good morning,
Our light winter weather event produced 0″ to 2.5″ of snow across the region. Isolated three inch amount were reported. Even a dusting caused roadways to become slick and hazardous.
Overall, the event performed as forecasted. It was about 15 to 20 miles farther north in southern Illinois and western Kentucky.
Snow flurries and snow showers will be possible today. An additional 0″ to 0.5″ of snow will be possible. If a persistent band of snow develops somewhere then an inch of new snow will fall.
6:15 AM radar shows more snow in Missouri and Arkansas. Moving east.
What falls will stick, obviously.
Here is the Hrrr model. You can see it paints light snow in some of my counties today. I would not pay too much attention to the numbers on this map or even the exact placement. Just showing you some light snow will be possible today.
Notice that northern band.
Bitterly cold air remains the primary weather story. Roads will remain slick and hazardous, as well. That is a secondary story.
Pipe busting cold will be with us into Tuesday night. Cold Wednesday. A reinforcing shot of cold air arrives Thursday afternoon and night. That will linger into the weekend.
Perhaps we will moderate some next week.
Here were the temperatures this morning at 5:30 AM. Double-brrr.
5:30 AM wind chill values were even colder.
Another disturbance will push across the region Thursday and Thursday night. Some snow and rain showers are likely with it. For now, this does not appear to be a big system.
I will monitor the data today. But, I can’t rule out some additional light snow or ice accumulation. Nothing major, but what falls would likely stick.
The weather models are starting to pick up on this snow event. Some of the data develops the system to our east or right overhead. I will monitor trends.
This is for Thursday.
GFS
Canadian model
EC model
It would be a little less cold Thursday. I can’t rule out a wintry mix developing.
Bitterly cold air returns Thursday night and lingers into the weekend.
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
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Tornado Probability Outlook
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Large Hail Probability Outlook
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High wind Probability Outlook
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.
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This animation is the NAM 3K Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the Hrrr Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the GFS Model.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 28 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.50″ to 1.00″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 28 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.50″ to 1.00″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
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ZoomRadar
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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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