Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

January 9, 2024: Here comes winter.

 

Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section

Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region.  Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.  Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

1. Prepare for bitterly cold air this weekend into next week.  Multiple days below freezing.  Some nights in the single digits and teens.  Pipe busting weather.

2. Monitor updates concerning Friday’s storm track.  The snow line could get close to my northern counties.  Snow showers possible elsewhere Friday night with rapidly falling temperatures.

3. Monitor updates concerning a winter storm Sunday afternoon/night into Monday.  

A frozen water pipe in winter, closeup, shallow depth of field. water tap covered with ice. ai generative.

Avoid extension cords with space heaters.  Every year our region experiences house fires because of this.

Double click image to view it better.  Enlarge it.

More tips at this link click here

.
Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities).  Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

Today’s almanac numbers from a few select local cities.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what  year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

Then, it shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today.  Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.

If you have not subscribed to my YouTube Channel then click on this link and it will take you to my videos.

Click the button below and it will take you to the Beau Dodson YouTube Channel.


48-hour forecast



.


.

Tuesday to Tuesday

1. Is lightning in the forecast?  Monitor.  Lightning is possible Thursday night into Friday.

2.  Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast?  No.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Not at this time.

4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees?  No.

5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees?  Yes.  Friday night into next Tuesday.

6.  Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast?  Yes.  A light dusting is possible Tuesday night over mainly MO and IL.

Some light snow is possible Friday night.  Some light accumulation will be possible.

There is a chance of snow and wintry mix Sunday night into Monday.

7.  Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? Monitor.  I am watching Sunday afternoon into Monday.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines
.

Fire weather risk level.

Tuesday: 3. Very low risk.
Tuesday night: 2. Very low risk.
Wednesday: 4.  Low risk.
Wednesday night: 4. Low risk.

Fire Weather Discussion

Wetting rains will wind down from west to east this afternoon and evening, with strong west winds gusting up to 40 mph possible through late tonight. After a brief lull Wednesday, another round of soaking rain and strong winds is likely Thursday night through Friday night.

A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.

 

.

.

Tuesday, January 09,  2024
Confidence in the forecast?  High Confidence  
Tuesday Forecast:  Cloudy.  Showers tapering off from west to east.  Scattered afternoon light showers.  Perhaps mixed with snow over northern counties.  High temperatures will be this morning.  Falling temperatures later this morning into the afternoon.  Windy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~  40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%

Coverage of precipitation:  Numerous early in the morning.  Becoming scattered.
Timing of the precipitation:  Any given point of time.  The bulk of the rain will fall Monday night and Tuesday morning.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 44°
Southeast Missouri ~ 43° to 46°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 46° to 48° 
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 42° to 45°

Southern Illinois ~ 44° to 46°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 46° to 50° 
Far western Kentucky ~ 50° to 54° 

The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 53° to 56°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 45° to 50°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 52° to 55° 

Winds will be from this direction: Becoming west southwest 15 to 30 mph.  Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Yes.  Have  a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:55 PM .
.

Tuesday Night Forecast:  Cloudy.  A chance of scattered rain and snow showers.  Becoming snow showers.  Any accumulation would be light.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%

Coverage of precipitation: Scattered (ending)
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly before 12 am.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 23° to 26°
Southeast Missouri ~ 24° to 26°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 24° to 28°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 22° to 25°
Southern Illinois ~ 24° to 26°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 24° to 28°
Far western Kentucky ~ 24° to 28°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30° to 32°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 24° to 26°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 26° to 32°

Winds will be from this direction:  West 15 to 35 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Watch for black ice.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars and road conditions.
Moonrise: 5:39 AM
Moonset:  2:51 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

.

Wednesday, January 10,  2024
Confidence in the forecast?  High Confidence  
Wednesday Forecast:  Becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Colder.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%

Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 44°
Southeast Missouri ~  40° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 42° to 44°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 42°

Southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 40° to 44°

The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40° to 44°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~  42° to 44°

Winds will be from this direction:  West southwest 15 to 30 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 35°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:56 PM .
.

Wednesday Night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%

Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 26° to 28°
Southeast Missouri ~ 26° to 30°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30° to 32°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 26° to 28°
Southern Illinois ~ 26° to 30°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 26° to 30°
Far western Kentucky ~ 26° to 30°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 28° to 32°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 28° to 32°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30° to 34°

Winds will be from this direction:   South southwest 15 to 30 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:  15° to 25°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:44 AM
Moonset:  3:55 PM
The phase of the moon:  New

.

Thursday, January 11,  2024
Confidence in the forecast?  High Confidence  
Thursday Forecast:  Becoming partly sunny. Breezy.  A slight chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~20%
Northwest Tennessee ~  20%

Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 48°
Southeast Missouri ~  46° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 50° to 54°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 46° to 48°

Southern Illinois ~ 46° to 48°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 48° to 52°
Far western Kentucky ~ 48° to 52°

The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 52° to 55°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 46° to 50°
Northwest Tennessee ~  52° to 54°

Winds will be from this direction:  South southwest 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:57 PM .
.

Thursday  Night Forecast: Increasing clouds. Rain likely. Windy.  A chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%

Coverage of precipitation:  Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 36°
Southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 36°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 34° to 38°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 34° to 36°
Southern Illinois ~ 34° to 36°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~34° to 36°
Far western Kentucky ~ 36° to 40°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40° to 44°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 34° to 36°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 34° to 36°

Winds will be from this direction:  South southeast 15 to 30 mph gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 38°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
Moonrise: 7:42 AM
Moonset:  5:08 PM
The phase of the moon:  New

.

Friday, January 12,  2024
Confidence in the forecast?  High Confidence  
Friday Forecast:   Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely.  Turning colder.  Rain may change to snow late in the day.  Windy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80%
Southeast Missouri ~ 80%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 90%
Southern Illinois ~ 90%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 90%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 90%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 90%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 90%
Northwest Tennessee ~  90%

Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 48°
Southeast Missouri ~  46° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 50° to 54°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 46° to 48°

Southern Illinois ~ 46° to 48°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 48° to 52°
Far western Kentucky ~ 48° to 52°

The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 52° to 55°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 46° to 50°
Northwest Tennessee ~  52° to 54°

Winds will be from this direction:  South southwest becoming west northwest 15 to 35 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lighting. Monitor updates concerning the cold air behind the rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Yes.  Have a plan B and monitor updates.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:58 PM .
.

Friday Night Forecast: Cloudy.  Snow showers.  Much colder.  Windy.  Watch for icy roads if temperatures drop while we still have snow showers in the region.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%

Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 16° to 18°
Southeast Missouri ~ 16° to 18°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 18° to 22°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 14° to 18°
Southern Illinois ~ 15° to 20°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~15° to 20°
Far western Kentucky ~ 20° to 24°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 22° to 25°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 18° to 22°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20° to 22°

Winds will be from this direction: West northwest 15 to 35 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 0° to 15°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Monitor for the risk of icy roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
Moonrise: 8:29 AM
Moonset:  6:26 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing crescent.

.

Saturday, January 13,  2024
Confidence in the forecast?  High Confidence  
Saturday Forecast:   Partly cloudy. Cold.  Windy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%

Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 28° to 32°
Southeast Missouri ~  28° to 32°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30° to 34°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 28° to 30°

Southern Illinois ~ 28° to 32°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30° to 32°
Far western Kentucky ~ 30° to 34°

The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30° to 34°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30° to 32°
Northwest Tennessee ~  33° to 36°

Winds will be from this direction:  West northwest 15 to 35 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 10° to 25°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Cold wind chill values.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:59 PM .
.

Saturday Night Forecast: Mostly clear. Bitterly cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%

Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 8° to 12°
Southeast Missouri ~ 10° to 14°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 14° to 16°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 8° to 12°
Southern Illinois ~ 10° to 15°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~12° to 15°
Far western Kentucky ~ 13° to 16°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 16° to 20°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 14° to 18°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20° to 22°

Winds will be from this direction: West northwest 15 to 35 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -5° to 15°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold wind chills.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold.
Moonrise: 9:08 AM
Moonset:  7:43 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing crescent.

.

.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.



.

Weather Highlights

    1.   Rain tapers off this morning.   Falling temperatures today.
    2.   A few snow showers or flurries possible tonight.
    3.   Gusty winds today into Tuesday.  Ranging from 20 to 40 mph.
    4.   Widespread rain returns Thursday night and Friday.  Rumble thunder possible.
    5.   Much colder Friday night into next week.
    6.   Snow showers possible Friday night.  Watch for slick spots as temps rapidly fall.  Flash freeze possible.
    7.   Bitterly cold air this weekend into much of next week.  Pipe busting cold.
    8.   Tracking a winter storm Sunday afternoon into Monday.

 

Weather advice:

Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.

Now is the time to prepare for pipe busting cold weather.  That will arrive this weekend into next week.

Accumulating snow appears likely Sunday PM into Monday.  Still early for numbers, but some icy roads are likely in the region.  School closings are possible next week.


Forecast Discussion

Busy busy busy weather over the coming seven days.  Be prepared for changeable forecasts.

Our rain event will taper off from west to east this morning.

Scattered showers will continue into this afternoon.  Patchy drizzle, as well.

Colder air arrives this afternoon and tonight.  Some snow flurries or snow showers will be possible, but nothing of note.  Perhaps a dusting in spots of Missouri and Illinois.  Northwest Kentucky, as well.

Windy conditions will continue today and tonight.  Wind gusts of 20 to 45 mph will be common.  Perhaps slightly higher gusts in a few spots.

A wind advisory has been issued for most of the area.

No weather concerns Wednesday into Thursday morning.  Other than gusty winds.

A widespread rain event returns Thursday night into Friday.  I can’t rule out some thunderstorms.  This looks like another potential soaking rain.  We need rain.  We are in drought!

The track of this low should be right over my forecast area.  Remember, the higher snow chances extend north northwest away from the low.  The warm sector is south southeast of the low.

This places our region in rain and storms.  Ending as snow showers with rapidly falling temperatures.

Here are the three different model suites.  You can see the low.

Fairly similar appearances on the models.

If the Friday low tracks 50 to 100 miles farther south southeast then I will need to increase snow chances over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois Friday afternoon and night.  Let’s keep an eye on it.

Here are some model depictions of that deep low pressure center.  This is quite the low pressure center for any time of the year.  Deep.  I suspect this ends up being a blizzard Friday across parts of Missouri and Illinois.  We will see what the NWS does.

GFS model.

Green and yellow = rain.  Blue is snow.  Deep blue represents heavy snow.  Notice how the L passes over us.  That is the center of low pressure.  Notice how the snow is to the west northwest of the low.  Rain to the east southeast.

This is 12 PM Friday.

Then, by Friday afternoon the low is moving away from the area.  The rain could end as snow.  Let’s watch this storm track closely.

This next image is the EC model.  Same storm system.  Friday afternoon.  Notice how it is a bit farther west northwest with the low.

The Canadian model is way west with the low and makes no sense.  The snowpack up north will likely prevent the low from moving this far north, but we shall see.

Bitterly cold air arrives Friday afternoon and night.  Temperatures will fall Friday afternoon and a flash freeze is possible Friday night.  A flash freeze occurs when temperatures rapidly fall and moisture remains on roadways and parking lots.

The temperatures fall so fast that the moisture freezes and causes slick spots.

Snow showers are possible Friday afternoon and night.  I can’t rule out a dusting to an inch of snow in spots.

Now, with all of that said, I will need to watch the storm track Friday.  If it were slightly farther south and east, then snow chances would increase.

Monitor updates.

Bitterly cold air arrives Friday night and that cold air will linger into most of next week.

Wind chills will dip below ten degrees Friday night.  Low wind chill values will be the theme Friday night into much of next week.  Occasionally, those wind chill values may dip below zero.  Especially if we have a snow pack.

A winter storm will move into the region Sunday afternoon into Monday.  This is the best chance of snow this winter, thus far.  Accumulating snow and sleet will be possible area-wide.

This Sunday afternoon into Monday system will track farther south and east than recent events.  That means our region will be in the cold sector.  This will be an overrunning event.

Overrunning events can produce quite a bit of precipitation.  Let’s keep an eye on this one.  Confidence is increasing that we will have some wintry weather later this weekend into early next week.

I do not believe the models have a handle on Sunday’s storm track.  They do not handle cold arctic air all that well.  They often times play catch up with placement.  The farther south southeast the cold air, the farther south southeast the higher snow chances will be.

How far south southeast will the snow trend?  That is one question on the table.

My forecast does include the idea that the models are too far north northwest.

That means the snow chances will be higher from southern Missouri into southern Kentucky and Tennessee vs say northern portions of southeast Missouri and northern portions of southern Illinois.

Let me show you an example of how models are wrong when it comes to placement of the cold air.

This is the GFS model.  The last dozen or so runs.  This is showing you trends.  Watch how the colder air is trending south southeast with each passing run.

That shows you that the model is not depicting the placement of the cold air all that well.  It continues to play catch up.

Double click images to enlarge them.

And snow accumulation.  Ignore the numbers.  Just showing you the trend south southeast with each passing run.

Whatever does fall is not going anywhere.  It will be bitterly cold next week.  If we have a snowpack then temperatures could dip into the single digits with wind chill values below zero a good bet.

Now is the time to prepare for bitterly cold air.  This is pipe freezing/busting weather.

 



.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.

.

Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables.  Click here.

.

Tornado Probability Outlook

.

Large Hail Probability Outlook

.

High wind Probability Outlook

.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

.

Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

 

.

.

The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
.

.

48-hour precipitation outlook.
.
.

 

_______________________________________

.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

  1. The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
  2. The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

.

What am I looking at?

You are looking at computer model data.  Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

Green represents light rain.  Dark green represents moderate rain.  Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.

.

This  animation is the Hrrr Model.

Green is rain.  Yellow and orange are heavier rain.  Pink is a wintry mix.  Blue is snow.  Dark blue is heavier snow.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=6 AM.  18z=12 PM.  00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

 

.

This  animation is the NAM Model.

Green is rain.  Yellow and orange are heavier rain.  Pink is a wintry mix.  Blue is snow.  Dark blue is heavier snow.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=6 AM.  18z=12 PM.  00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

.

This  animation is the GFS Model.

Green is rain.  Yellow and orange are heavier rain.  Pink is a wintry mix.  Blue is snow.  Dark blue is heavier snow.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=6 AM.  18z=12 PM.  00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

.

This  animation is the EC Model.

Green is rain.  Yellow and orange are heavier rain.  Pink is a wintry mix.  Blue is snow.  Dark blue is heavier snow.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=6 AM.  18z=12 PM.  00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

 

 

..

..

.
.

.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 28 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.50″ to 1.00″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

.

.
.
Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 28 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.50″ to 1.00″
.

Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

.

The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk

Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.

The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.

Apple users click here

Android users click here



.

Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

.

Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

.

.

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool.   Click here.

College of DuPage satellites. Click here

.

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

.

.
Find Beau on Facebook! Click the banner.

.

Find Beau on Twitter! Share your weather photos! @beaudodson

2016-11-19_11-50-24

.


 

 

Comments are closed.