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Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.
Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.
Today’s almanac numbers from a few select local cities.
The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.
The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.
It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.
Then, it shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).
It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.
It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.
The sunrise and sunset are also shown.
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48-hour forecast
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Monday to Monday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Monitor. A few lightning strikes are possible Monday night and Tuesday morning over mainly the MO Bootheel, KY, and TN.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Not at this time.
4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? Yes. Friday, Saturday, and Sunday night. Wind chill values may dip below 10 degrees.
6. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? Possible. A light dusting is possible Tuesday night over mainly MO and IL.
Some light snow is possible Friday night. This does not appear, at this time, to be a big deal, but monitor updates in case the storm track changes. A flash freeze is possible Friday night.
There is a chance of snow and wintry mix next Sunday night into Tuesday. Quite a few days to monitor that event. That would likely be the one to watch if you want snow or wintry precipitation. Monitor updates.
7. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? Monitor. I am watching next Sunday night into Tuesday.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines
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Fire weather risk level.
Monday: 4. Low risk.
Monday night: 2. Very low risk.
Tuesday: 3. Very low risk.
Fire Weather Discussion
Widespread wetting rains will move through the region beginning this afternoon through Tuesday afternoon before winding down. Most locations will pick up 1 to 1.5 inches of rain. After a lull Wednesday and Thursday, another disturbance will bring a good chance of rain Friday.
A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.
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Monday, January 08, 2024
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain. Mainly during the afternoon hours.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Becoming numerous during the PM hours.
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly after 12 PM
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 43° to 46°
Southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 46° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 43° to 46°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 43° to 46°
Far western Kentucky ~ 46° to 50°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 48° to 52°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 43° to 46°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 48° to 52°
Winds will be from this direction: East southeast increasing to 10 to 25 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the forecast updates and the Beau Dodson Live Radars
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:54 PM .
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Monday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Rain likely. A chance of thunderstorms. Windy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 100%
Southeast Missouri ~ 100%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 100%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 100%
Southern Illinois ~ 100%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 100%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 100%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 100%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 100%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 100%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 36°
Southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 36°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40° to 42°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 34° to 38°
Southern Illinois ~ 34° to 38°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 34° to 38°
Far western Kentucky ~ 38° to 42°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 42° to 45°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 33° to 36°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 42° to 44°
Winds will be from this direction: East soutehast 15 to 35 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Yes. Have a plan B.
Moonrise: 4:30 AM
Moonset: 2:00 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Tuesday, January 09, 2024
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Cloudy with showers likely the first half of the day. A thunderstorm possible early. Windy. Rain tapering off west to east during the morning and early afternoon hours. The bulk of the rain will fall Monday night. Keep that in mind. Falling temperatures during the late morning and afternoon hours.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 80%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous.
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time. The bulk of the rain will fall Monday night and Tuesday morning.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 45°
Southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 46° to 50°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 42° to 45°
Southern Illinois ~ 44° to 46°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 46° to 50°
Far western Kentucky ~ 50° to 54°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 53° to 56°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 45° to 50°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 52° to 55°
Winds will be from this direction: Becoming west southwest 15 to 30 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Yes. Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:55 PM .
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Tuesday Night Forecast: Cloudy. Rain ending. Rain may end as a brief period of light snow. Colder. Watching for black ice as any remaining water puddles could freeze. Hopefully, the wind will dry most surfaces.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered (ending)
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly before 12 am.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 23° to 26°
Southeast Missouri ~ 23° to 26°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 24° to 26°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 22° to 25°
Southern Illinois ~ 24° to 26°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 24° to 28°
Far western Kentucky ~ 24° to 28°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30° to 34°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 24° to 26°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 26° to 32°
Winds will be from this direction: West 15 to 35 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Watch for black ice.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars and road conditions.
Moonrise: 5:39 AM
Moonset: 2:51 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Wednesday, January 10, 2024
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Colder.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 42° to 44°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 40° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40° to 44°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 42° to 44°
Winds will be from this direction: West southwest 15 to 30 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 35°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:56 PM .
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Wednesday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 26° to 28°
Southeast Missouri ~ 26° to 30°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 26° to 30°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 26° to 28°
Southern Illinois ~ 26° to 30°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 26° to 30°
Far western Kentucky ~ 26° to 30°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 26° to 30°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 26° to 30°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 26° to 30°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 15 to 30 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:44 AM
Moonset: 3:55 PM
The phase of the moon: New
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Thursday, January 11, 2024
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Becoming partly sunny. Breezy. A slight chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 48°
Southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 46° to 50°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 46° to 48°
Southern Illinois ~ 46° to 48°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 46° to 50°
Far western Kentucky ~ 48° to 52°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 50° to 54°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 46° to 50°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 50° to 54°
Winds will be from this direction: West southwest 10 to2 0 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:57 PM .
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Thursday Night Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: After 9 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 35°
Southeast Missouri ~ 33° to 36°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 34° to 38°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 32° to 35°
Southern Illinois ~ 33° to 36°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~33° to 36°
Far western Kentucky ~ 34° to 36°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 34° to 36°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 34° to 36°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 34° to 36°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast 10 to 20 mph gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 38°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 7:42 AM
Moonset: 5:08 PM
The phase of the moon: New
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- Active weather pattern with several systems to track.
- Widespread rain and gusty winds arrive Monday afternoon into Tuesday.
- The bulk of the rain will fall Monday PM/night. Ending west to east Tuesday late morning and afternoon.
- Rain may end briefly as snow Tuesday night. Watch for black ice.
- Low end rain snow chances Thursday night.
- Another system with rain and/or snow arrives Thursday night into Friday night.
Weather advice:
Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
Forecast Discussion
Well, rain rain rain is the word of the day. No snow. No ice.
The big winter storm that we have been watching for weeks is finally upon us.
This is a true blue blizzard.
Check out the watches and warnings/advisories. The map has turned colorful.
Double click images to enlarge them.
The tan colors in our local area represent wind advisories for tonight and tomorrow morning. Gusty winds into Wednesday. Occasional gusts to 40 mph will be a possibility.
Remember, if you want snow then you want to be on the north side of the low.
You can see this current storm system. The red L is the low. It will track near St Louis. Thus, we are once again on the warm side. It is luck of the draw on these storm tracks. We usually get a few chances each year for snow. This was one chance. Gone. All rain for us. Or, at least 99% rain. Perhaps ending as light snow showers tomorrow night.
Widespread rain arrives late today into tonight. The bulk of this rain event will be tonight. Tapering shower chances tomorrow and tomorrow afternoon.
The heaviest rain totals will occur between 6 pm and 6 am tonight.
You can see that here on this graphic. These are the rain totals from 6 pm to 6 am. A clap of thunder will be possible.
Tomorrow, rain tapers west to east. Scattered showers into the evening hours. Falling temperatures tomorrow afternoon. Gusty winds.
Here are the expected 6 am Tuesday to 6 pm Tuesday rain totals.
It will be colder Tuesday night into Wednesday. Watch for black ice. Black ice is simply ice that forms from puddles left over from the rain event. Gusty winds will likely dry most surfaces. Not overly concerned, but just watch your step in parking lots.
Dry conditions Wednesday into Thursday morning.
A couple of scattered showers are possible Thursday and Thursday night.
Widespread rain returns Friday and Friday night. Much colder air filters into the region Friday night. That would change the rain to light snow showers. Some light accumulation possible, but the bulk of that snow event will stay to our north!
Once again, luck of the draw will take the low right over our region. It is very close. If this were to shift southeast, then snow chances would increase Friday Friday night. For now, this looks like mostly rain.
Perhaps another big wind driven winter storm or blizzard to our west and north!
If you want snow, then watch next Sunday night into Tuesday.
Cold air will be in place as yet another precipitation event moves into the area. This one would be a wintry mix or snow. But, it is still a week away, thus confidence isn’t going to be high in the details. I am watching it.
Here is that system on the GFS model. Again, long way out. Lots can change, as we know.
Here it is on the EC model
Enjoy all the rain. We need it.
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
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Tornado Probability Outlook
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Large Hail Probability Outlook
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High wind Probability Outlook
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.
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This animation is the Hrrr Model.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the NAM Model.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the GFS Model.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 28 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.50″ to 1.00″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 28 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.50″ to 1.00″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
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ZoomRadar
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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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