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Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
Here is the latest Bam Weather Long Range Outlook. They help me with videos.
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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.
Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.
Today’s almanac numbers from a few select local cities.
The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.
The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.
It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.
Then, it shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).
It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.
It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.
The sunrise and sunset are also shown.
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48-hour forecast
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Thursday to Thursday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Monitor. I am watching a storm system next Monday night and Tuesday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. I am watching a storm system next Monday night and Tuesday. The risk of severe weather will likely remain to our south and southeast.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Not at this time.
4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
6. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? Possible. I am monitoring a storm system this coming Friday night into Saturday night. The risk for accumulating snow over MO/IL is low. I don’t expect issues across western KY or northwest TN.
I am watching another one next Monday night into Tuesday night. Depending on the track of the area of low pressure, there could be measurable snow over portions of the region. I am watching MO/IL. Monitor updates. If the low tracks quite a bit farther south and east, then the snow would shift south and east.
I am watching a fast moving system next Wednesday and Thursday.
7. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? Monitor. I am watching another one next Monday night into Tuesday night.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines
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Fire weather risk level.
Thursday: 4. Low risk.
Thursday night: 4. Low risk.
Friday: 4. Low risk.
Friday night: 4. Low risk.
Fire Weather Discussion
Light easterly winds today are expected ahead of a more active weather pattern. Light rain moves through Friday evening into Saturday. Northwestern counties may see some mixing of non- impactful light snow. A stronger system Monday into Tuesday will bring rainfall with gusty winds. Depending on the low pressure center track, some mixing of snow might be possible, again favoring areas in the northwest.
A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.
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Thursday, January 04, 2024
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Intervals of clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 42°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 42° to 44° I
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 42° to 44°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 42° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 42° to 44°
Winds will be from this direction: Northeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:51 PM .
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Thursday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 24°
Southeast Missouri ~ 23° to 26°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 24° to 26°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 22° to 24°
Southern Illinois ~ 22° to 25°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 22° to 25°
Far western Kentucky ~ 23° to 26°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 23° to 26°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 22° to 25°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 23° to 26°
Winds will be from this direction: East northeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 18° to 24°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:13 AM
Moonset: 11:50 AM
The phase of the moon: Last Quarter
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Friday, January 05, 2024
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Friday Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of late afternoon showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered late in the day
Timing of the precipitation: After 4 PM
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 46°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 45°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 42° to 45°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 42° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 44° to 48°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Live Radars
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:51 PM .
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Friday Night Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of rain. Rain may mix with wet snow.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 90%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 90%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly after midnight
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30° to 34°
Southeast Missouri ~ 30° to 32°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30° to 32°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 28° to 32°
Southern Illinois ~ 30° to 34°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30° to 34°
Far western Kentucky ~ 30° to 34°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30° to 34°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30° to 34°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30° to 34°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Monitor updates.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Moonrise: 1:13 AM
Moonset: 12:14 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Saturday, January 06, 2024
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Rain ending west to east early in the day.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered (ending)
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 44°
Southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 46°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 45°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 42° to 45°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 42° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 44° to 48°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:52 PM .
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Saturday Night Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A slight chance of showers or snow showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30° to 34°
Southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 34°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 32° to 34°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 28° to 32°
Southern Illinois ~ 30° to 32°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 32° to 34°
Far western Kentucky ~ 32° to 34°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 32° to 34°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 32° to 34°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 32° to 34°
Winds will be from this direction: West 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 32°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:15 AM
Moonset: 12:42 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Sunday, January 07, 2024
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A slight chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Before noon
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 43° to 46°
Southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 43° to 46°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 43° to 46°
Far western Kentucky ~ 44° to 48°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 44° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 43° to 46°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 44° to 48°
Winds will be from this direction: West 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:53 PM .
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Sunday Night Forecast: Intervals of clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30° to 34°
Southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 34°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 32° to 34°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30° to 32°
Southern Illinois ~ 30° to 32°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 32° to 34°
Far western Kentucky ~ 32° to 34°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 32° to 34°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 32° to 34°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 32° to 34°
Winds will be from this direction: East 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:21 AM
Moonset: 1:16 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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- Chilly temperatures into the weekend.
- Rain arrives Friday night into Saturday. Light totals. Low chance of wet snow. over MO/IL
- A big storm system impacts the region Monday into Tuesday night with widespread showers and thunderstorms. Gusty strong winds. Monitor snow chances.
- Watching a system next Wednesday/Thursday.
- Additional systems after that.
Weather advice:
Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
Forecast Discussion
An active period of weather is developing and it is likely going to give meteorologists quite a few headaches!
First, we do not have any weather concerns today into tomorrow morning. Some clouds will linger today and then increase again tonight and tomorrow.
Thickening lowering clouds Friday will lead to some afternoon showers pushing in from Arkansas.
Rain coverage will increase southwest to northeast Friday night. Widespread showers will develop. Rain totals, however, will be on the light side. A trace to 0.25″ is the going forecast. Perhaps slightly more as you move towards LBL and Hopkinsville. Lowest totals over northern portions of southeast Missouri and norther portions of southern Illinois.
The rain may mix with wet snow over Missouri and Illinois, but I do not expect accumulation. A dusting at most, but even that appears to be a stretch. That would occur late Friday night as temperatures drop. Don’t get too excited about the chance of wet snowflakes.
Here is the latest WPC/NOAA forecast for rain totals Friday/Saturday.
A few lingering showers or rain/snow showers will be possible Saturday night and Sunday morning.
Sunday will remain mostly cloudy.
Clouds will thicken Sunday night and Monday. That will lead to our big storm system that we have been watching for a month. I had been predicting a big storm around January 10th. It will arrive a couple of days early.
Our next system is a doozey. This is what the GFS and Canadian models show. Check out the widespread precipitation centered around the deep area of low pressure. It has been a while since we have seen a storm like this.
Showers will develop Monday and increase in coverage Monday afternoon and night. Rain will continue into Tuesday and Tuesday night.
A few thunderstorms will be possible from the Missouri Bootheel into Kentucky and Tennessee.
Now, the next big question is snow. This is going to be a difficult forecast and we are still five days out.
The system in question is still out over the Pacific Ocean. We have still have several days to fine tune the forecast.
Models shifted the low south and east overnight. Yesterday, the models were tracking the low over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. A lot of the models still show that general idea, but some have shifted.
Shifting the low is a big deal. Even a shift of 50 to 100 miles will completely change the forecast for some counties.
If you want rain, then you want the low to push to your northwest. If you want snow, then you want the low farther south and east.
At this time, it is still too soon to know if our region will be dealing with a winter storm. Monitor updates.
The rain/snow line may very well end up across eastern Missouri and southern Illinois.
There will likely be a sharp cutoff between where rain occurs and where snow occurs. Although, as the colder air sweeps into the region, behind the low, many areas could briefly change to snow before precipitation ends.
Snow accumulation can’t be ruled out with this system. The highest chance of that, in my area, would be across portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
A deepening low will track across our region. Model guidance has been showing an area of low pressure ranging from 972 mb to 982 mb. Nearing record low levels for barometric pressure in our local area.
Deep lows do strange things. They tend to produce surprises when it comes to snow accumulation and placement.
They can also lead to high gradient wind gusts. We are going to have to monitor the risk of 40+ mph winds. That would mainly be Monday afternoon into Wednesday.
We had a system like this last March and it produced widespread 50 to 60 mph winds. Wind gusts of at least 40 mph will be possible with this system. Perhaps higher.
Let me show you a few maps.
I like to use ensembles when forecasting in the long range.
Here is the EN ensembles showing the track of the area of low pressure. A large number of them are clustered around southern Illinois into southern Indiana.
This would keep the higher snow chances northwest of St Louis. But, close to some of my counties. Again, if the low were to track through Kentucky/Tennessee then you would shift the rain/snow line farther into southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
Here is the GFS ensembles. They match up fairly well with the EC
Let’s look at snow probabilities from the ensembles.
What is the probability of 3 inches of snow?
EC model
GFS model
The model run from 24 hours ago showed this for snow depth.
This morning’s run showed this
Here is the animation trend from the GFS over the last dozen runs or so. It has been fairly consistent in showing at least some accumulating snow across portions of Missouri and Illinois. Lesser chances south and east.
This is showing snow depth which takes into account ground temps and other factors.
We don’t know what the eventual outcome will be. Not yet, at least. Stay tuned.
Here is the latest WPC snowfall outlook. What is the probability of 0.25″ or more of melted precipitation occurring Monday and Tuesday?
At this time, the risk is higher north northwest of my forecast counties (Monday/Monday night).
Tuesdays/Wednesday. It does shift south just a tad. Thus, we need to keep an eye on it. Deep lows can do weird things. They can produce their own cold air.
A deep low like this is likely to offer up some forecast surprises.
As always, during the winter months, check back for updates. Don’t walk away with one forecast and think it won’t change. We do well in the day one through three time-frame. During an active pattern it becomes increasingly complicated as we move into day four, five, six, and seven.
Monitor updates.
A fast moving weaker system will push through the region next Wednesday and Thursday. It may bring some additional rain or snow showers.
I am watching another system around January 13th to 15th. Models have been going back and forth on its track. Showing both rain and snow.
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
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Tornado Probability Outlook
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Large Hail Probability Outlook
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High wind Probability Outlook
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.
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This animation is the NAM Model.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the GFS Model.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the EC Model.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 28 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.50″ to 1.00″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 28 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.50″ to 1.00″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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