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Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.
Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.
Today’s almanac numbers from a few select local cities.
The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.
The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.
It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.
Then, it shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).
It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.
It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.
The sunrise and sunset are also shown.
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48-hour forecast
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Wednesday to Wednesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Monitor. I am watching a storm system next Monday night and Tuesday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. I am watching a storm system next Monday night and Tuesday.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Not at this time.
4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
6. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? Possible. I am monitoring a storm system this coming Friday night into Saturday night. I am watching another one next Monday night into Tuesday night.
The chance of measurable snow Friday night and Saturday is very low and would be confined to southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
The system next Monday and Tuesday needs to be closely monitored.
7. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? Monitor. I am watching another one next Monday night and Tuesday.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines
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Fire weather risk level.
Wednesday: 4. Low risk.
Wednesday night: 4. Low risk.
Thursday: 4. Low risk.
Thursday night: 4. Low risk.
Fire Weather Discussion
Relatively light winds and low mixing heights will lead to poor smoke dispersion over the next couple of days. Widespread light rain is expected Friday night into Saturday. A much stronger storm system is expected Monday into Tuesday of next week, which will likely bring widespread rainfall and very strong, gusty winds.
A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.
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Wednesday, January 03, 2024
Confidence in the forecast? Medium Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 45°
Southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 46°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 46° I
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 43° to 46°
Far western Kentucky ~ 43° to 46°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 43° to 46°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 43° to 46°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 43° to 46°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:50 PM .
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Wednesday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 24°
Southeast Missouri ~ 23° to 26°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 24° to 28°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 22° to 24°
Southern Illinois ~ 23° to 26°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 23° to 26°
Far western Kentucky ~ 23° to 26°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 24° to 26°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 23° to 26°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 24° to 28°
Winds will be from this direction: North 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 18° to 28°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise:
Moonset: 11:29 AM
The phase of the moon: Last Quarter
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Thursday, January 04, 2024
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 42°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 42° to 44° I
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 42° to 44°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 42° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 42° to 44°
Winds will be from this direction: Northeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:51 PM .
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Thursday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 24°
Southeast Missouri ~ 23° to 26°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 24° to 26°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 22° to 24°
Southern Illinois ~ 22° to 25°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 22° to 25°
Far western Kentucky ~ 23° to 26°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 23° to 26°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 22° to 25°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 23° to 26°
Winds will be from this direction: East northeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 18° to 24°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:13 AM
Moonset: 11:50 AM
The phase of the moon: Last Quarter
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Friday, January 05, 2024
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Friday Forecast: Increasing clouds. A slight chance of late afternoon showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: After 4 PM
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 46°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 45°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 42° to 45°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 42° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 44° to 48°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:51 PM .
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Friday Night Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of rain. Rain may mix with wet snow.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 80%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly after midnight
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30° to 34°
Southeast Missouri ~ 30° to 32°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30° to 32°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 28° to 32°
Southern Illinois ~ 30° to 34°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30° to 34°
Far western Kentucky ~ 30° to 34°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30° to 34°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30° to 34°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30° to 34°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Monitor updates.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Moonrise: 1:13 AM
Moonset: 12:14 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Saturday, January 06, 2024
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Rain ending west to east early in the day.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 44°
Southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 46°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 45°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 42° to 45°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 42° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 44° to 48°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:52 PM .
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Saturday Night Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A slight chance of showers or snow showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30° to 34°
Southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 34°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 32° to 34°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 28° to 32°
Southern Illinois ~ 30° to 32°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 32° to 34°
Far western Kentucky ~ 32° to 34°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 32° to 34°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 32° to 34°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 32° to 34°
Winds will be from this direction: West 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 32°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:15 AM
Moonset: 12:42 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Sunday, January 07, 2024
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A slight chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Before noon
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 43° to 46°
Southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 43° to 46°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 43° to 46°
Far western Kentucky ~ 44° to 48°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 44° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 43° to 46°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 44° to 48°
Winds will be from this direction: West 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:53 PM .
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Sunday Night Forecast: Intervals of clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 28° to 32°
Southeast Missouri ~ 28° to 32°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 28° to 32°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 28° to 32°
Southern Illinois ~ 28° to 32°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 28° to 32°
Far western Kentucky ~ 28° to 32°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 28° to 32°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 28° to 32°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 28° to 32°
Winds will be from this direction: South 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 32°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:21 AM
Moonset: 1:16 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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- Chilly temperatures into the weekend.
- Rain arrives Friday night into Saturday. Light totals. Low chance of wet snow.
- A big storm system impacts the region Monday and Tuesday with widespread showers and thunderstorms. Gusty strong winds. Monitor snow chances.
Weather advice:
Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
Forecast Discussion
I do not have any weather concerns today into Friday afternoon. It will remain cool/chilly. Occasional clouds. No precipitation. No extremes.
Our next storm system will approach the region Friday night. This system will bring increasing chances of rain Friday night into Saturday. Rain totals will be light. Trace to 0.25″ will be the going forecast.
A few showers may linger into Saturday night, but the bulk of it will be over by that time.
Here is the latest WPC NOAA rainfall outlook for that event. This has been adjusted since 24 hours ago and it won’t be the last adjustment.
Temperatures will be marginal for any frozen precipitation. Thus, the bulk of the precipitation will be rain. It could be just cold enough for rain and wet snowflakes over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. I do not expect much risk of accumulating snow or impacts. A dusting or so will be possible, but even that appears to be a low risk. Monitor updates, as always.
Temperatures Saturday will be well above freezing. Thus, even if there were some slushy accumulation, it would quickly melt.
Another precipitation event will develop Monday into Tuesday. This one has been in the charts for weeks. A deep area of low pressure will move into the Missouri and Ohio Valleys by Monday night and Tuesday.
As a matter of fact, models show near record low pressure over our region. Our last record low pressure event was March 2023 and it caused millions in damage because of strong gusty gradient winds.
What are gradient winds? Gradient winds are caused by tight isobars (equals lines of pressure). Tight isobars cause strong/high wind gusts.
Last year’s event produced widespread 50 to 60 mph wind that lasted all day. Hopefully, that won’t happen with this event, but I am closely watching it.
Strong gusty winds are likely Monday and Tuesday. How strong is the question. Monitor updates.
The GFS wind gust animation. I suspect winds are going to be strong with this event.
This system will have plenty of moisture to work with. Widespread snow, rain, and storms will accompany the system.
The GFS shows a large system with a deep area of low pressure. This, taken at face-value, would be a blizzard on the west side of the low. Severe storms and tornadoes would occur on the south and east side of the low.
It is still too early to know the eventual track of the area of low pressure. This event appears to be mostly wet for our region vs white. The low would have to shift south and east to bring substantial snow chances to our area. Monitor updates. This event is still seven days away.
If the low tracks farther north and west, then thunderstorms could be a concern. I suspect there will be severe weather with this event. That would be more likely to our south and east, but we need to monitor this. Adjustments are possible.
Here is what the GFS has been showing for snow totals.
Yesterday morning’s GFS run (it runs 4 times a day)
Last night’s run showed this
This morning’s run showed this
Here is the animation trend from the GFS over the last dozen runs or so. It has been fairly consistent in showing at least some accumulating snow across portions of Missouri and Illinois. Lesser chances south and east.
We don’t know what the eventual outcome will be. Not yet, at least. Stay tuned.
Here is the latest WPC snowfall outlook. What is the probability of 0.25″ or more of melted precipitation occurring Monday and Tuesday?
At this time, the risk is higher north northwest of my forecast counties (Monday/Monday night).
Tuesdays/Wednesday. It does shift south just a tad. Thus, we need to keep an eye on it. Deep lows can do weird things. They can produce their own cold air.
A deep low like this is likely to offer up some forecast surprises.
As always, during the winter months, check back for updates. Don’t walk away with one forecast and think it won’t change. We do well in the day one through three time-frame. During an active pattern it becomes increasingly complicated as we move into day four, five, six, and seven.
Monitor updates.
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
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Tornado Probability Outlook
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Large Hail Probability Outlook
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High wind Probability Outlook
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.
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This animation is the GFS Model.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the EC Model.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 28 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.50″ to 1.00″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 28 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.50″ to 1.00″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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