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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
Tuesday night – Mostly clear and cool. Patchy morning fog possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40’s to lower 50’s.
Winds: Northeast winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
What impact is expected? None
Don’t forget to Tweet me your sunrise/sunset photos, storm photos, or other weather related photographs. I will try to retweet them or use them in the blog.
https://twitter.com/BeauDodson
Wednesday – Sunny. A little warmer. Dry.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower 80’s.
Winds: Northeast winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation?
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Wednesday night – Mostly clear and cool. Patchy morning fog possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 50’s.
Winds: Northeast winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
What impact is expected? None
Thursday – Partly sunny. A little warmer.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower to middle 80’s.
Winds: East winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation?
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Thursday night – Some clouds. Patchy morning for possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 50’s.
Winds: Southeast winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
What impact is expected? None
Friday – Partly sunny. A little warmer. Dry.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle 80’s.
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation?
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Friday night – A few clouds. A little milder.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower 60’s.
Winds: Southeast winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
What impact is expected? None
Saturday – Partly sunny. Mild for late September.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower 80’s.
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20% far southern counties in southeast Missouri and along the Kentucky and Tennessee border.
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Saturday night – Some clouds.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower 60’s.
Winds: Southeast winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low to medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%–20% low confidence on precipitation chances
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
What impact is expected? None
Sunday – Some clouds. Small shower chances. Low confidence on this.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower 80’s.
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low to medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Slightly warmer over the coming days. We will push above normal again for highs.
2. Dry weather to continue through the week
3. Weekend? Small rain chances.
4. Watching the tropics next week. Maybe something into the Gulf of Mexico
Well, our nice weather continues. Surprise surprise. 🙂 Seems like we have had a rather unusual September. At least most of the region. Parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois did have some much needed rainfall earlier in the month. But, for most other locations…it continues to be drier than normal.
Speaking of rain over the past few weeks. Let’s look at rainfall totals over the past 21 days. As you can see, parts of the region have experienced some decent rainfall totals. But, not everyone.
This first view shows far southeast Missouri, far southern Illinois, Kentucky, and Tennessee. Image is from weatherbell.com and you can click the image for a larger view.
This next view covers more of Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana
How many days this month have had 0.10″ of rain or more? Not many.
Drought typically takes awhile to settle into a region. But, you can have what is called a flash drought. A flash drought basically means that the rain just stops for weeks on end. The ground will dry out. Vegetation will dry out. Some of our counties have had less than 0.25″ of rain since September 1st. A few spots have not picked up any measurable rainfall. Not the best situation.
It is true that farmers working in the fields could use some dry weather. But, we don’t want it to become too dry.
For now the dry pattern will hold.
Mild temperatures will be the rule for daytime high temperatures. Lows will be on the cool side.
A weak disturbance may move into the region over the weekend. Some of the models are painting a few showers in the region. Low confidence on this happening. I will update accordingly if I believe rain chances should be increased over the weekend.
Another cold front may arrive early next week. Perhaps some showers along the front. Still a long way off for that one.
I am watching the tropics for a possible system in the Gulf of Mexico next week. Too far out to know for sure if something will develop and then where it would track. I will keep monitoring.
Otherwise, calm weather for the next few days.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
No measurable rain is forecast over the coming days. Dry weather to continue. Mostly dry into October.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level will be near ZERO for Wednesday through Friday.
.
Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Calm weather. Mild weather. No rain in the short term forecast.
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the former Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served them proudly for ten years before expanding my job role to additional counties in western Kentucky.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
