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Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
A couple of snow/rain showers will be possible Monday over our east northeast counties.
Around this area.
Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.
Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.
Today’s almanac numbers from a few select local cities.
The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.
The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.
It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.
Then, it shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).
It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.
It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.
The sunrise and sunset are also shown.
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48-hour forecast
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Sunday to Sunday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? No.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? Possible. We may get close Monday night and Tuesday morning.
6. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? No. Snow showers are possible Monday over mainly southeast Illinois and northwest Kentucky.
7. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? No.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines
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Fire weather risk level.
Sunday: 4. Low risk.
Sunday night: 4. Low risk.
Monday: 5. Medium risk.
Monday night: 5. Medium risk.
Fire Weather Discussion
Light rain and drizzle will exit the Heartland early this morning, with partial clearing of skies west of the Mississippi River this afternoon. A vigorous cold front will sweep into the region Monday morning, bringing very gusty NW winds and chilly temperatures. Winds will relax Tuesday, with temperatures moderating back to normal levels for the middle and end of next week, when the the next chance of rain will arrive.
A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.
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Sunday, December 17, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? Medium Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. Patchy drizzle this morning. Drying west to east. Increasing winds during the afternoon. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 52°
Southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 52°
The Missouri Bootheel ~52° to 54°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 46° to 50
Southern Illinois ~ 48° to 52°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 50° to 52°
Far western Kentucky ~ 50° to 52°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 50° to 52°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 50° to 52°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 50° to 52°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:03 AM
Sunset: 4:39 PM
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Sunday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Windy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30° to 32°
Southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 34°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 36° to 38°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30° to 32°
Southern Illinois ~ 32° to 34°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 33° to 36°
Far western Kentucky ~ 33° to 36°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 34° to 36°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 32° to 34°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 38° to 40°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 35 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:10 AM
Moonset: 9:59 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Monday, December 18, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly cloudy. Cold. Windy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 36° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 42°
The Missouri Bootheel ~42° to 44°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 36° to 40°
Southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40° to 42°
Far western Kentucky ~ 40° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40° to 44°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~42° to 44°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 15 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 35°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:04 AM
Sunset: 4:40 PM
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Monday Night Forecast: Mostly clear. Windy before midnight. Cold wind chill values.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 14° to 18°
Southeast Missouri ~ 16° to 22°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20° to 22°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 14° to 18°
Southern Illinois ~ 15° to 20°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 16° to 20°
Far western Kentucky ~ 18° to 20°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 18° to 22°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 16° to 20°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20° to 22°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Winds subsiding late at night.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 08° to 18°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold wind chill values.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:40 AM
Moonset: 11:11 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Tuesday, December 19, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A few afternoon clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 42°
The Missouri Bootheel ~42° to 44°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 40° to 42°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 42° to 44°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~42° to 44°
Winds will be from this direction: Variable wind direction 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:05 AM
Sunset: 4:40 PM
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Tuesday Night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 24° to 26°
Southeast Missouri ~ 24° to 26°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 24° to 28°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 22° to 25°
Southern Illinois ~ 24° to 26°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 24° to 26°
Far western Kentucky ~ 24° to 28°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 24° to 28°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 22° to 25°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 24° to 28°
Winds will be from this direction: South 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 28°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:06 AM
Moonset:
The phase of the moon: First Quarter
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Wednesday, December 20, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Increasing clouds. Not as cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 50°
Southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 50°
The Missouri Bootheel ~50° to 52°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 46° to 50°
Southern Illinois ~ 46° to 50°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 50° to 52°
Far western Kentucky ~ 50° to 52°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 50° to 52°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 48° to 50°
Northwest Tennessee ~50° to 52°
Winds will be from this direction: South 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:05 AM
Sunset: 4:40 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 36° to 38°
Southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 36°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 33° to 36°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 33° to 36°
Southern Illinois ~ 32° to 35°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 32° to 34°
Far western Kentucky ~ 32° to 34°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 32° to 34°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 32° to 34°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 32° to 34°
Winds will be from this direction: South 8 to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 26° to 36°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:32 AM
Moonset: 12:19 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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- Calmer weather.
- Patchy drizzle today and patchy light rain or snow showers tomorrow (northeast counties)
- Colder weather.
- Windier weather.
- Watching rain chances later this week.
Weather advice:
Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
.Forecast Discussion
Our rain maker is pushing off to the east. That leaves us with clouds in the region today. Cool temperatures. A few patchy showers and drizzle will continue into the morning hours, as well. All of that will push off to the east, with time.
Partly cloudy sky conditions will continue tonight and Monday. A mix of sun and clouds.
Here is the cloud forecast. Blue represents clouds.
Timestamp upper left. Zulu time. 12z=6 am. 18z=6 pm. 00z=6 pm. 06z=12 am.
A few rain/snow showers will be possible Monday over southeast Illinois and western Kentucky. Basically, the farther east northeast you travel the higher the chance of experiencing a non-impactful rain/snow showers.
No snow accumulation expected or impacts.
A strong blast of cold air will briefly push into our region late tonight into Tuesday night.
Some of the coldest air of the winter season, thus far, will filter into the area. Some reporting stations will hit the teens Monday night and Tuesday morning.
Strong gusty northwest winds will arrive later today and tonight. Those will continue into the first half of Monday night. Wind gusts of 20 to 40 mph will be common.
This is going to make it feel even colder.
Wind chill values will dip into the 8 to 14 degree range Monday night and Tuesday morning.
The kids will want to bundle up for the bus stop Tuesday morning. Some are out of school. But for those who do have school, it will be cold.
Tuesday and Wednesday will be dry and cool. A slight warming trend.
A series of storm systems will impact the region from Thursday night into the week of Christmas.
A lot of questions remain about the week of Christmas. Whether we have any chance of snow or ice is one question that remains on the table. Another one is severe weather.
For now, it is still too soon to make a solid forecast.
What I do have in the forecast (and have had in the forecast for weeks and weeks) is that we will have several systems to watch from December 22nd through January 3rd.
Rain showers will be possible Thursday night into Saturday. Then, another system around the 25th.
I will look over the charts today and tomorrow and come up with a revised Christmas forecast. I don’t expect much in the way of changes from my update last week. Not for now, at least.
As we move through the week, however, I will have increasing confidence in the final forecast.
Temperatures are likely to be above average Christmas Eve into Christmas Day.
Let’s take a look at the latest set of long range outlook.
There are concerns about drought. Even into spring.
We have been batting about 70% to 80% on our monthly forecasts. For accuracy. So, this obviously raises concerns when you look at these graphics.
We are already dry. Here is the latest drought monitor map from yesterday. Double click the graphic to enlarge it.
Here are some monthly forecasts into May.
January Temperature Outlook
January Precipitation Outlook
February Temperature Outlook
February Precipitation Outlook
March Temperature Outlook
March Precipitation Outlook
March through May Temperature Outlook
March through May Precipitation Outlook
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
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Tornado Probability Outlook
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Large Hail Probability Outlook
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High wind Probability Outlook
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.
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This animation is the NAM Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the Hrrr Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
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Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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