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Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.
Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.
Today’s almanac numbers from a few select local cities.
The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.
The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.
It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.
Then, it shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).
It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.
It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.
The sunrise and sunset are also shown.
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48-hour forecast
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Wednesday to Wednesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? No.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
6. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? No.
7. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? No.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines
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Fire weather risk level.
Wednesday: 5. Medium risk.
Wednesday night. 4. Low risk.
Thursday: 4. Low risk.
Thursday night. 4. Low risk.
Fire Weather Discussion
High pressure will keep dry weather in the Quad State area until a slight chance of showers returns to the forecast next weekend. Winds will generally be out of the east or southeast through the remainder of the week at around 5-10 mph with calmer conditions overnight. Thursday is expected to be the driest day of the forecast period with afternoon RHs dropping to around 30% with localized lower values.
A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.
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Wednesday, December 13, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 50°
Southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 50°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 52° to 54°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 46° to 50°
Southern Illinois ~ 48° to 52°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 48° to 52°
Far western Kentucky ~ 50° to 52°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 50° to 52°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 48° to 52°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 52° to 54°
Winds will be from this direction: North 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:01 AM
Sunset: 4:38 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast: Decreasing clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 23° to 26°
Southeast Missouri ~ 25° to 30°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 28° to 32°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 22° to 25°
Southern Illinois ~ 24° to 26°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 28° to 30°
Far western Kentucky ~ 28° to 32°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30° to 32°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 28° to 32°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30° to 32°
Winds will be from this direction: Northeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 22° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:00 AM
Moonset: 5:09 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Thursday, December 14, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 50°
Southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 54°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 53° to 56°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 46° to 50°
Southern Illinois ~ 48° to 52°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 50° to 52°
Far western Kentucky ~ 52° to 54°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 52° to 54°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 50° to 52°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 54° to 56°
Winds will be from this direction: East 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:01 AM
Sunset: 4:38 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast: Becoming partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 28° to 32°
Southeast Missouri ~ 28° to 32°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30° to 32°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 28° to 32°
Southern Illinois ~ 28° to 32°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 28° to 32°
Far western Kentucky ~ 28° to 32°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 28° to 32°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 28° to 32°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30° to 32°
Winds will be from this direction: East northeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:01 AM
Moonset: 6:15 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Friday, December 15, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 55°
Southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 55°
The Missouri Bootheel ~54° to 56°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 52° to 55°
Southern Illinois ~ 52° to 55°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 53° to 56°
Far western Kentucky ~ 53° to 56°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 53° to 56°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 52° to 55°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 53° to 56°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 54°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:02 AM
Sunset: 4:38 PM
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Friday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of a late night light shower.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: After 11 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 34°
Southeast Missouri ~ 33° to 36°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 36° to 38°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 32° to 34°
Southern Illinois ~ 32° to 34°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 33° to 36°
Far western Kentucky ~ 33° to 36°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 33° to 36°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 33° to 36°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 34° to 38°
Winds will be from this direction: Northeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 32° to 36°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 9:53 AM
Moonset: 7:31 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Saturday, December 16, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? Medium Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 54°
Southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 54°
The Missouri Bootheel ~53° to 56°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 50° to 52°
Southern Illinois ~ 52° to 54°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 52° to 54°
Far western Kentucky ~ 52° to 54°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 52° to 54°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 52° to 54°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 53° to 56°
Winds will be from this direction: East 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:04 AM
Sunset: 4:39 PM
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Saturday Night Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of light showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 36°
Southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 36°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 34° to 38°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 34° to 36°
Southern Illinois ~ 34° to 36°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 34° to 38°
Far western Kentucky ~ 34° to 38°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 34° to 38°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 34° to 36°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 34° to 38°
Winds will be from this direction: East northeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 36°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 10:35 AM
Moonset: 8:45 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Sunday, December 17, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? Medium Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A slight chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 52°
Southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 54°
The Missouri Bootheel ~52° to 54°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 50° to 52°
Southern Illinois ~ 50° to 54°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 50° to 54°
Far western Kentucky ~ 52° to 54°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 52° to 54°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 52° to 54°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 52° to 54°
Winds will be from this direction: North 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 46° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:03 AM
Sunset: 4:39 PM
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Sunday Night Forecast: Intervals of clouds. Breezy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Wet roadways.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 36°
Southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 36°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 34° to 38°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 34° to 36°
Southern Illinois ~ 34° to 36°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 34° to 38°
Far western Kentucky ~ 34° to 38°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 34° to 38°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 34° to 36°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 34° to 38°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 36°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Moonrise: 11:10 AM
Moonset: 9:59 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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- Quiet weather.
- Slow warming trend.
- Monitoring several systems in the long range.
Weather advice:
Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
.Forecast Discussion
Well, the weather continues with a calm theme.
A quiet week of weather for our region. We will have some clouds from time to time. But, no precipitation through at least Friday night.
I continue to track a weak system Saturday into Sunday. A couple of light showers will be possible. I do have 20% to 30% rain chances Saturday into Sunday.
Rainfall totals of a trace to 0.10″ will be the going forecast.
I closely watching a strong storm system well to our southeast this weekend. I believe it may stay far enough southeast that it misses our region.
You can see that system on the GFS model. Almost looks like a hurricane! But, it isn’t.
Our weekend rain chances will come with a weak frontal boundary approaching from the northwest and west. Moving east southeast.
Again, if we have showers they will be light. No severe thunderstorm, tornado, snow, or ice concerns.
Looking ahead
I continue to watch the week of Christmas for one or more storm systems. It remains a bit early to know how this will play out. It does appear too warm for snow and ice.
I will be watching for thunderstorm chances. Whether we have severe weather will need to be monitored, as well. It is just too early to know the final details.
Keep checking back.
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
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Tornado Probability Outlook
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Large Hail Probability Outlook
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High wind Probability Outlook
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.
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This animation is the NAM Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the WSF NSSL Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the EC Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the NAM 3K Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
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ZoomRadar
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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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