December 8, 2023: Unsettled weather.

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Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

Today’s almanac numbers from a few select local cities.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

Then, it shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.

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48-hour forecast

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Friday to Friday

1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is likely Friday night into Saturday night. Chances will shift south and east Saturday afternoon and night as the front advances eastward. Lightning is most likely ahead of the front.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Yes. There is a level one and level two risk of severe weather Saturday. See graphics below. The primary concern will be damaging wind and short lived tornadoes. This is a conditional risk. Meaning, some of the ingredients are marginal. If those don’t come together, then severe weather won’t be a concern.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Unlikely.

4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.

5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.

6. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? Not at this time. The rain may end as a wintry mix Saturday night and Sunday. At this time, I am not forecasting accumulating snow or ice.

7. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? Not at this time. The rain may end as a wintry mix Saturday night and Sunday. At this time, I am not forecasting accumulating snow or ice.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines
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Fire weather risk level.

Friday: 3. Very low risk.
Friday night: 3. Very low risk.
Saturday: 3. Very low risk.
Saturday night: 3. Very low risk.

Fire Weather Discussion

Breezy and unseasonably warm conditions will continue into Saturday. Rain will spread across the area late today into this evening, with widespread rain expected late tonight through Saturday evening. Some thunderstorms are possible late tonight into Saturday evening, especially across west Kentucky. Rain will taper off from west to east late Saturday night into Sunday morning as much colder air filters into the region. Dry conditions can be expected Sunday afternoon into next week, with a slow warming trend beginning Monday.

A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.

Friday, December 8, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny during the morning. Increasing afternoon clouds. A slight chance of a shower. Milder. Windy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: After 1 PM
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 62°
Southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 62°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 62°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60° to 62°
Far western Kentucky ~ 60° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60° to 62°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 15 to 30 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:56 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Friday Night Forecast: Increasing clouds. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 80%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 50°
Southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 50°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 46° to 50°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 46° to 50°
Southern Illinois ~ 46° to 52°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 48° to 52°
Far western Kentucky ~ 48° to 52°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 48° to 52°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 46° to 50°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 46° to 52°
Winds will be from this direction: South 15 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 46° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor the weather radars.
Moonrise: 2:25 AM
Moonset: 1:49 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

Saturday, December 9, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Turning colder northwest to southeast as the day wears on.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80%
Southeast Missouri ~ 80%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80%
Southern Illinois ~ 80%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 80%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 62°
Southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 62°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 62°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60° to 62°
Far western Kentucky ~ 60° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60° to 62°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest becoming west northwest 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Some storms could produce high wind and isolated short-lived tornadeso.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:57 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Saturday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers. Perhaps some evening thunderstorms. Turning colder. Windy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Mostly before midnight. Some scattered activity after midnight.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30° to 34°
Southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 34°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 33° to 36°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30° to 34°
Southern Illinois ~ 32° to 34°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 32° to 34°
Far western Kentucky ~ 32° to 34°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 34° to 36°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 32° to 34°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 34° to 36°
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest 15 to 30 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Some storms could produce high wind and isolated short-lived tornadeso.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
Moonrise: 3:28 AM
Moonset: 2:15 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

Sunday, December 10, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of rain showers. Rain may mix with wet snow. No accumulation.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 43° to 46°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 43° to 46°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 42° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 43° to 46°
Winds will be from this direction: North northwest 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:57 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Sunday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Colder.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 24°
Southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 24°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 24° to 28°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 22° to 24°
Southern Illinois ~ 22° to 25°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 23° to 26°
Far western Kentucky ~ 23° to 26°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 23° to 26°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 23° to 26°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 24° to 28°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:32 AM
Moonset: 2:45 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

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Weather Highlights

1. Breezy conditions into the weekend.
2. Slow warming trends.
3. Shower and thunderstorm chances this weekend.

Weather advice:

Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.

.Forecast Discussion

Welcome to the weekend! I hope you had a nice week. The weather is going to be active this weekend. Let’s stay weather area.

A windy day ahead of us. A windy weekend, for that matter! You can expect winds to gust in the 15 to 30 mph range. Occasionally, higher. These winds will linger into Sunday.

A storm system is taking shape to our west and south. Today will be a transition day. Mild. Windy. Increasing clouds.

By this afternoon, a few showers will likely dot the radar. They will be streaming north and east.

Southerly winds will bring increasing dew points to the region. Dew point is a measure of moisture. Dews are likely to pop into the middle to upper 50s tomorrow. Perhaps even lower 60s. That is a lot of moisture for the month of December.

When forecasting severe weather, I look for dew points of 58 degrees and above (during the winter months).

You can see the dew points on the NAM model animation. They peak right ahead of the cold front tomorrow.

Those higher dew points will set the stage for the threat of severe thunderstorms. The SPC has increased the risk to a level two across portions of Kentucky and Tennessee. Light green is where lightning is possible, but sub-severe. Dark green is the level one risk. Yellow is the level two risk.

The primary concern will be damaging wind and short-lived QLCS tornadoes. QLCS tornadoes usually only last a few minutes and are typically EF0 and EF1 in strength. They can still cause a lot of damage.

I am watching 11 am to 10 pm tomorrow. That is when the threat will be highest.

The risk of severe weather is conditional. Meaning, some ingredients are lacking for this event. Or, at the very least, are limited. If the ingredients don’t come together perfectly then the threat of severe weather will stay to our south.

This is an event that will need to be monitored. I call them babysitting events. We don’t believe the severe weather risk is high, but we also know it is not zero. Meteorologists will have to monitor radars until the line of storms moves east.

This is typical for the month of December.

We will have numerous showers and thunderstorms on radar tonight into Saturday night.

The cold front will also usher in colder air. Highs Saturday may occur the first half of the day across our western counties. Slowly falling temperatures behind the cold front.

A wave of low pressure will move northeast along the front Saturday night. This will bring about the development of an area of low pressure over western Tennessee Saturday afternoon and night. This will increase rain coverage over the southeast half of our region. That would include the Bootheel of Missouri northeast into extreme southern Illinois and then northeast into northwest Kentucky.

Over the last last few days, there has been a shift south and east with the heavier rain totals. That was the trend all week. Now, they seem to have settled on a solution and even shifted ever so slightly back northwest.

Here is the latest rainfall outlook. Double click images to enlarge them.

A few showers will linger into Sunday. The bulk of the rain, however, will be over by then.

There is a chance the rain ends as rain/snow mix. No accumulation.

Dry conditions are anticipated Sunday night into at least Wednesday.

I am watching several systems right before and after Christmas.

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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.

Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables. Click here.

Tornado Probability Outlook

Large Hail Probability Outlook

High wind Probability Outlook

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

What am I looking at?

You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.

This animation is the NAM Model.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

This animation is the WSF NSSL Model.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

This animation is the EC Model.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

This animation is the NAM 3K Model.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
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Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

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ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.