Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

December 3, 2023: Decent weather for early December.

 

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Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region.  Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.  Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities).  Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

Today’s almanac numbers from a few select local cities.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what  year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

Then, it shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today.  Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.

 

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48-hour forecast



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Sunday to Sunday

1. Is lightning in the forecast?  Possible.  I am watching Friday night into Sunday.

2.  Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast?  Monitor. I am closely monitoring a storm system set to arrive Friday night into Sunday.  I can’t rule out thunderstorms.  It is too early to know if severe weather will be a concern.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.

4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees?  No.

5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees?  No.

6.  Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast?  No.

7.  Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast?  No.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines
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Fire weather risk level.

Sunday: 4. Low risk.
Sunday night: 4. Low risk.
Monday: 4. Low risk.
Monday night: 4. Low risk.

Fire Weather Discussion

A weak system will spread light rain across portions of the area tonight into Monday morning. The only area with a respectable
chance of a wetting rain is along and north of the Interstate 64 corridor. The rest of the week looks dry, but we are monitoring a
stronger storm system that could impact the region next weekend with some heavier rainfall amounts. Healthy transport winds will exist each of the 
next 3 days before high pressure builds in on Wednesday resulting in lighter winds.

A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.

 

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Sunday, December 3,  2023
Confidence in the forecast?  High Confidence  
Sunday Forecast:  Clearing sky conditions from southwest to northeast.  Any morning light showers will end.  Patchy fog will mix out.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%

Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 54°
Southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 55°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 58° to 60°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 50° to 54°
Southern Illinois ~ 53° to 56°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 53° to 56°
Far western Kentucky ~  53° to 56°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 54° to 56°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 53° to 56°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 56° to 58°

Winds will be from this direction:  West southwest 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  But most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:52 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Sunday Night Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of light showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%

Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly after 9 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 34°
Southeast Missouri ~ 33° to 36°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 34° to 38°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 32° to 34°
Southern Illinois ~ 34° to 36°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 34° to 38°
Far western Kentucky ~ 34° to 38°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 34° to 38°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 36° to 38°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 38° to 40°

Winds will be from this direction:  South becoming west southwest 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 42°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:33 PM
Moonset:  11:56 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous

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Monday, December 4,  2023
Confidence in the forecast?  High Confidence  
Monday Forecast:  Morning clouds.  Isolated showers.  Some clearing as the day wears on.  Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%

Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Before 12 pm.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 52°
Southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 54°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 52° to 55°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 48° to 52°
Southern Illinois ~ 50° to 52°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 52° to 55°
Far western Kentucky ~  52° to 55°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 52° to 55°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 50° to 54°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 52° to 54°

Winds will be from this direction:  West northwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 54°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:52 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Monday  Night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%

Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30° to 32°
Southeast Missouri ~ 33° to 36°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 34° to 36°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30° to 32°
Southern Illinois ~ 34° to 36°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 34° to 38°
Far western Kentucky ~ 34° to 36°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 34° to 36°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 34° to 36°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 34° to 36°

Winds will be from this direction:  Southwest 8 to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:31 PM
Moonset:  12:20 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous

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Tuesday, December 5,  2023
Confidence in the forecast?  High Confidence  
Tuesday Forecast:   Partly sunny. Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%

Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 52°
Southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 55°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 53° to 56°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 50° to 52°
Southern Illinois ~ 52° to 54°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 52° to 54°
Far western Kentucky ~  52° to 54°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 53° to 56°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 52° to 54°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 53° to 56°

Winds will be from this direction:  Northwest 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:53 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Tuesday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy.  Windy, at times.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%

Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 24° to 28°
Southeast Missouri ~ 26° to 28°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 25° to 30°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 24° to 28°
Southern Illinois ~ 26° to 28°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30° to 32°
Far western Kentucky ~ 32° to 34°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 34° to 36°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 32° to 34°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 34° to 36°

Winds will be from this direction:  West northwest 10 to 25 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise:
Moonset:  12:43 PM
The phase of the moon:  Last Quarter

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Wednesday, December 6,  2023
Confidence in the forecast?  High Confidence  
Wednesday Forecast:  Partly to mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%

Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 48°
Southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 48° to 50°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 46° to 48°
Southern Illinois ~ 48° to 50°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 48° to 50°
Far western Kentucky ~ 48° to 50°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 48° to 50°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 46° to 48°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 48° to 50°

Winds will be from this direction:  Northwest 8 to 16 mph becoming southwest 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:54 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%

Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30° to 32°
Southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 34°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 33° to 36°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30° to 32°
Southern Illinois ~ 32° to 34°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 32° to 34°
Far western Kentucky ~ 32° to 35°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 32° to 35°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 32° to 34°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 33° to 36°

Winds will be from this direction:  Southwest 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:28 AM
Moonset:  1:04 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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Weather Highlights

    1.   Breezy conditions over the coming week.
    2.   Seasonal temperatures.  Quite a few days with above average temperatures.
    3.   Low end rain chances tonight and Monday morning.
    4.   Higher rain chances Friday night into the weekend.  Perhaps some thunderstorms.

 

Weather advice:

Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.

 

.Forecast Discussion

Happy Sunday and welcome to the first weekend of December.

Morning satellite shows clouds over the northern and eastern half of the region.  A bit more sunshine as you move into southeast Missouri and extreme southern Illinois.

We will have a mix of sun and clouds today.

The forecast is not too bad.  All things considered it is fairly tame.

A fast moving system will bring a few light showers to the region today, tonight, and early Monday morning.  Rain totals of 0.00″ to 0.05″ are anticipated.  Enough to wet the sidewalk or pavement.  Not much.  Again, no extremes.  See the future-cast radars farther down in the blog.

Temperatures will be near seasonal levels over the coming days.  A slow warming trend will begin to push us back above average in the temperature department.  But, nothing too extreme.

Monday night into Friday will be dry.  Windy, at times.  As a whole, the next seven days will feature breezy conditions from time to time.  Gusts into the 20s will not be uncommon.  This will make it feel a few degrees cooler.

A stronger cold front pushes into the region Friday night into Saturday night/Sunday.  There are still some differences in the model guidance as to when this system arrives and when it departs.

GFS model for Friday night/Saturday morning.  You can see green in our region. Rain.  Blue is snow (well to our north).

For now, I have showers and thunderstorms back in the forecast Friday night into the weekend.

A few thunderstorms will be possible along this front, but it is still too early to know if severe thunderstorms or tornadoes will be a concern.  I am closely monitoring all of the model data.  I will update the forecast as forecast confidence in the final outcome increases.

Rain totals will likely top 0.50″ in some locations.

I continue to watch a cold shot the 3rd and 4th week of December.  Whether mid to late month can produce any snow or ice will need to be monitored.  Just too early to make a forecast call.

I am watching.



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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.

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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables.  Click here.

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Tornado Probability Outlook

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Large Hail Probability Outlook

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High wind Probability Outlook

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

 

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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

  1. The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
  2. The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

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What am I looking at?

You are looking at computer model data.  Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

Green represents light rain.  Dark green represents moderate rain.  Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.

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This  animation is the HRRR Model.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=6 AM.  18z=12 PM.  00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

 

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This  animation is the NAM 3K Model.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=6 AM.  18z=12 PM.  00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

 

 

 

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Radars and Lightning Data

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Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
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Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

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ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
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Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool.   Click here.

College of DuPage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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2016-11-19_11-50-24

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