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Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
—-> Wednesday’s high temperatures are questionable. If we have full sunshine then 78 to 84 will be possible. If we end up with low clouds, then some stations may struggle to hit the 70 degree mark. Clouds are the deciding factor. Keep that in mind. <—-
Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.
Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.
Today’s almanac numbers from a few select local cities.
The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.
The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.
It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.
Then, it shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).
It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.
It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.
The sunrise and sunset are also shown.
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48-hour forecast
—-> Wednesday’s high temperatures are questionable. If we have full sunshine then 78 to 84 will be possible. If we end up with low clouds, then some stations may struggle to hit the 70 degree mark. Clouds are the deciding factor. Keep that in mind. <—-
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Tuesday to Tuesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Unlikely.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
6. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? No.
7. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? No.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines
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Tuesday, November 7, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Partly sunny. Warm.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none. I will monitor our extreme northern counties (close to Mt Vernon to Evansville) for a light shower.
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 72° to 75°
Southeast Missouri ~ 78° to 82°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80° to 82°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70° to 75°
Southern Illinois ~ 73° to 76°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 76° to 80°
Far western Kentucky ~ 78° to 82°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 78° to 82°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 72° to 75°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 76° to 82°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 15 to 25 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 82°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:26 AM
Sunset: 4:51 PM
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Tuesday Night Forecast: A few clouds. Clearing. Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
Southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 58° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 58° to 62°
Far western Kentucky ~ 58° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 58° to 62°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 10 to 25 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:43 AM
Moonset: 2:19 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Wednesday, November 8, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? LOW Confidence
Low confidence in Wednesday’s forecast. Models show a range of cloud cover and temperatures. IF we avoid clouds, then temperatures will rise into the 78 to 85 degree range. If we have low clouds, then temperatures may struggle to get out of the 60s and lower 70s. Confidence in cloud cover is low.
Wednesday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. Breezy, at times. Temperatures will depend on cloud cover.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 72° (less clouds and temperatures will rise well into the 70s and perhaps 80s)
Southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 75° (less clouds and temperatures will rise well into the 70s and perhaps 80s)
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 72° to 75° (less clouds and temperatures will rise well into the 70s and perhaps 80s)
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 68° to 72° (less clouds and temperatures will rise well into the 70s and perhaps 80s)
Southern Illinois ~ 70° to 75° (less clouds and temperatures will rise well into the 70s and perhaps 80s)
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70° to 74° (less clouds and temperatures will rise well into the 70s and perhaps 80s)
Far western Kentucky ~ 70° to 74° (less clouds and temperatures will rise well into the 70s and perhaps 80s)
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70° to 74° (less clouds and temperatures will rise well into the 70s and perhaps 80s)
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70° to 74° (less clouds and temperatures will rise well into the 70s and perhaps 80s)
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70° to 74° (less clouds and temperatures will rise well into the 70s and perhaps 80s)
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 8 to 16 mph. If we have more sunshine, then wind gusts to 40 mph will be possible.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 74° (less clouds and temperatures will rise well into the 70s and perhaps 80s)
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:26 AM
Sunset: 4:50 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast: Increasing clouds. Scattered showers developing.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: After 11 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 54°
Southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 56°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 52° to 54°
Southern Illinois ~ 54° to 58°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 56° to 58°
Far western Kentucky ~ 58° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 56° to 58°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60° to 62°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 15 to 30 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:43 AM
Moonset: 2:40 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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The entire rain event has been trending farther south. This does raise questions about how far north to bring the rain and final rain totals. Adjustments are still possible.
Thursday, November 9, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers. Shower chances will be higher over our southern counties. Shower chances will be higher during the afternoon and evening hours.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Little coverage far north. Higher coverage far south.
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time. Higher chances in the PM hours.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
Southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 64°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 66°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Southern Illinois ~ 63° to 66°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 63° to 66°
Far western Kentucky ~ 63° to 55°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 63° to 66°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 65°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 64° to 66°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest becoming west northwest 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:27 AM
Sunset: 4:49 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Rain likely. Higher coverage over our southern counties.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous far south. None to isolated far north.
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 44°
Southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 43° to 46°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 42° to 45°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 42° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 43° to 46°
Winds will be from this direction: North northwest 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 42°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Isolated lightning risk.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 2:41 AM
Moonset: 3:02 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Friday, November 10, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Friday Forecast: Morning clouds. A chance of mainly morning showers. Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered. Mainly south southeast counties.
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly before 12 PM
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 56°
Southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 56°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 54° to 58°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 54° to 56°
Southern Illinois ~ 54° to 56°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 54° to 58°
Far western Kentucky ~ 54° to 58°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 54° to 58°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 54° to 58°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 54° to 58°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor morning radars.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:29AM
Sunset: 4:49 PM
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Friday Night Forecast: Clearing. Colder.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 34°
Southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 35°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 34° to 38°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 32° to 34°
Southern Illinois ~ 32° to 35°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 33° to 36°
Far western Kentucky ~ 33° to 36°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 33° to 36°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 33° to 36°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 34° to 38°
Winds will be from this direction: North northwest 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 36°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:41 AM
Moonset: 3:25 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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- Warm today.
- Wednesday’s temperatures are now in doubt because of possible cloud coverage.
- Rain chances ramp up late Wednesday night into Friday morning.
- Portions of the region may miss out on this rain event.
- Colder this weekend.
Weather advice:
Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
.Forecast Discussion
A complicated temperature forecast today through Wednesday.
For today, we have a weak frontal boundary across our northern counties. This will mean a few more clouds and it could also shave a few degrees off the high temperature forecast.
We will have widespread 70s today. Some 80 degree readings are possible over southern portions of southeast Missouri into Kentucky and Tennessee.
There is a small chance of a light shower as you travel towards Mt Vernon southeast into the Evansville area.
Wednesday’s high temperatures are now in question.
Data is starting to trend cloudier. IF this happens, then highs would remain in the 60s and 70s.
Without clouds then upper 70s to middle 80s is a lock.
Often times, during the autumn months, warm air advection brings low clouds. This is something that will need to be monitored when considering Wednesday’s high temperatures.
Check out the huge difference in these two models.
Hrrr model has upper 70s to lower 80s.
The NAM 3K has highs only in the 60s and lower 70s. This is because it has more clouds.
Clouds will be the deciding factor.
Blue represents clouds on this map.
The NAM has a lot of low clouds in the region. Streaming Gulf of Mexico moisture northward. This happens a lot during the autumn months.
If this is accurate, then it will be cooler Wednesday vs warmer.
The GFS shows almost no cloud cover Wednesday. Thus, it is much warmer.
Several locations tied or broke their record high temperatures yesterday. Paducah was one of them.
Winds Wednesday will be highly dependent on cloud cover. More clouds will spell lower wind speeds. Less clouds and we will end up with winds gusting into the 30s.
Rain chances will begin to ramp up Wednesday night (late). Scattered showers will develop in the region.
Rain coverage will vary greatly across the region.
The latest precipitation outlook shows that nicely. Little or no rain north. More rain south.
Rain will increase in coverage Thursday and Thursday night. Scattered rain showers Thursday morning. Becoming numerous (far south) during the afternoon and evening hours.
Again, northern counties may remain dry or mostly dry. Coverage of rain will be highest over our southern counties.
The rain will continue into Thursday night.
Again, less rain north. More rain south.
Lingering showers are likely Friday morning. The rain should end by Friday afternoon.
When all is said and done, our northern counties will receive little or no rain up to 0.20″. Our southern counties will receive 0.25″ to 0.50″. Locally higher over the Bootheel into northwest Tennessee.
Gusty north winds will arrive Thursday night into Friday. This will usher in cooler/more seasonal temperatures. It will feel more like November Friday into the weekend. Nothing extreme.
No severe weather in the forecast.
No snow or ice in the forecast!
Saturday will be dry.
I am monitoring Sunday into Tuesday as a couple of weak systems could bring increasing clouds and low end light rain chances. For now, I kept rain chances at 20% or less.
It is winter weather preparedness week.
Let’s take a look at frostbite.
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
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Tornado Probability Outlook
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Large Hail Probability Outlook
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High wind Probability Outlook
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.
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This animation is the GFS Model Future-cast Radar. What radar might look like.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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This animation is the EC Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
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ZoomRadar
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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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