Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

October 25, 2023: Unsettled weather. Frost/freeze next week.

Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section

Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region.  Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.  Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities).  Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

Today’s almanac numbers from a few select local cities.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what  year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

Then, it shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today.  Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.

 

If you have not subscribed to my YouTube Channel then click on this link and it will take you to my videos.

Click the button below and it will take you to the Beau Dodson YouTube Channel.


48-hour forecast



.


.

Wednesday to Wednesday

1. Is lightning in the forecast?  Possible.  I am watching Friday through Sunday night.  Lightning is possible.

2.  Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast?  No.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Unlikely.  Locally heavy rain Friday into Sunday night.  This could cause ponding of water in some areas.  Ditches may overflow.  Leaves could clog drainage points.  This could lead to spotty issues.

4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees?  No.

5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees?  No.

6.  Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast?  No.

7.  Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast?  No.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines

 

.

.

Wednesday, October 25,  2023
Confidence in the forecast?  High Confidence  
Wednesday Forecast:  Intervals of sun and clouds.   Warm. Breezy.  A few light showers over mainly southeast MO and southern IL.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%

Coverage of precipitation: Scattered over mainly MO and IL
Timing of the precipitation: Before 2 pm
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 76° to 80°
Southeast Missouri ~ 76° to 80°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80° to 82°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 76° to 80°
Southern Illinois ~ 76° to 80°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 76° to 82°
Far western Kentucky ~ 78° to 82°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 78° to 82°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 76° to 80°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80° to 82°

Winds will be from this direction:  South 15 to 25 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 82°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:13 AM
Sunset: 6:06 PM
.

Wednesday Night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%

Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
Southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 58° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 58° to 62°
Far western Kentucky ~ 58° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 58° to 62°

Winds will be from this direction: South  15 to 25 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:34 PM
Moonset: 3:19 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

.

Thursday, October 26,  2023
Confidence in the forecast?  High Confidence  
Thursday Forecast:  Intervals of sun and clouds.  A slight chance of showers.  Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%

Coverage of precipitation: Isolated, at best.
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 78° to 80°
Southeast Missouri ~ 76° to 82°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 78° to 82°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 78° to 82°
Southern Illinois ~ 78° to 82°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 78° to 82°
Far western Kentucky ~ 78° to 82°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 78° to 82°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 74° to 78°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 78° to 82°

Winds will be from this direction:  South 15 to 25 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 82°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:13 AM
Sunset: 6:04 PM
.

Thursday Night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  A chance of showers. Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%

Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 62°
Southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 66°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 62° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 62° to 65°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 62° to 65°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 64° to 66°

Winds will be from this direction: South  15 to 25 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 5:01 PM
Moonset: 4:32 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

.

Friday, October 27,  2023
Confidence in the forecast?  High  Confidence  
Friday Forecast:  Intervals of sun and clouds.  increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms.  Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%

Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 76° to 80°
Southeast Missouri ~ 76° to 80°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 78° to 82°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 76° to 78°
Southern Illinois ~ 78° to 82°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 78° to 82°
Far western Kentucky ~ 78° to 82°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 78° to 82°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 75° to 80°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 78° to 82°

Winds will be from this direction:  South southwest 15 to 25 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 82°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:14 AM
Sunset: 6:03 PM
.

Friday Night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms likely. Breezy.  Cooler over our northwest counties vs southeast counties.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80%
Southeast Missouri ~ 80%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%

Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 52°
Southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 55°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 56° to 58°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 52° to 54°
Southern Illinois ~ 53° to 56°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 53° to 56°
Far western Kentucky ~ 56° to 60°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 58° to 60°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 54° to 56°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 62° to 64°

Winds will be from this direction: Southwest 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.  Winds will become northwest behind the cold front as it slowly moves into the region from the west northwest.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 46° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 5:28 PM
Moonset: 5:44 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

.

Saturday, October 28,  2023
Confidence in the forecast?  High Confidence  
Saturday Forecast:  Intervals of sun and clouds. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Breezy.  A range of temperatures.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80%
Southeast Missouri ~ 80%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80%

Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 60°
Southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 72° to 75°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Southern Illinois ~ 62° to 65°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 68° to 72°
Far western Kentucky ~ 70° to 75°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 74° to 78°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70° to 75°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 74° to 78°

Winds will be from this direction:  Variable wind direction 15 to 25 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:  50° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:15 AM
Sunset: 6:02 PM
.

Saturday Night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms likely. Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80%
Southeast Missouri ~ 80%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80%
Southern Illinois ~ 80%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80%
Far western Kentucky ~ 80%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80%

Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 45° to 50°
Southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 52°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 50° to 55°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 45° to 50°
Southern Illinois ~ 48° to 52°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 55° to 60°
Far western Kentucky ~ 62° to 65°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 63° to 66°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 54° to 58°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 63° to 66°

Winds will be from this direction: Variable wind direction 15 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 5:57 PM
Moonset: 6:57 AM
The phase of the moon:  Full

.

Sunday, October 29,  2023
Confidence in the forecast?  High Confidence  
Sunday Forecast:  Turning colder northwest to southeast as the day wears on.  A cold front will be passing through the area.  Highs may occur early in the day.  Then, falling temperatures. Mostly cloudy.  A chance of showers.  A thunderstorm will be possible. Breezy.  A range of temperatures.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80%
Southeast Missouri ~ 80%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80%
Southern Illinois ~ 80%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80%
Far western Kentucky ~ 80%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80%

Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 55°
Southeast Missouri ~ 53° to 56°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 55° to 60°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 53° to 56°
Southern Illinois ~ 54° to 58°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60° to 65°
Far western Kentucky ~ 60° to 65°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 63° to 66°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60° to 65°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 63° to 66°

Winds will be from this direction:  North 15 to 25 mph.  Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:  45° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:16 AM
Sunset: 6:01 PM
.

Sunday  Night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80%
Southeast Missouri ~ 80%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80%
Southern Illinois ~ 80%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80%
Far western Kentucky ~ 80%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80%

Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Mostly before 3 AM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 34°
Southeast Missouri ~ 33° to 36°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 38° to 42°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 33° to 36°
Southern Illinois ~ 34° to 38°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 36° to 42°
Far western Kentucky ~ 40° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40° to 44°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40° to 44°

Winds will be from this direction: West northwest 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 6:30 PM
Moonset: 8:10  AM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous

.

Monday, October 30,  2023
Confidence in the forecast?  High Confidence  
Monday Forecast:  Chilly.  Breezy.  Damp.  A chance of scattered showers.  Mainly during the morning hours.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%

Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Higher chances before noon vs after noon.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 52°
Southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 52°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 50° to 55°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 48° to 52°
Southern Illinois ~ 48° to 52°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 50° to 54°
Far western Kentucky ~ 50° to 55°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 52° to 55°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 52° to 55°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 52° to 55°

Winds will be from this direction:  North 15 to 25 mph.  Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:  40° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be damp and windy.  Colder.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:15 AM
Sunset: 6:00 PM
.

Monday Night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Colder.  Patchy frost and or freeze conditions.  Frost is more likely if the wind dies down.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%

Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 25° to 30°
Southeast Missouri ~ 26° to 32°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30° to 34°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 25° to 30°
Southern Illinois ~ 28° to 32°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 28° to 32°
Far western Kentucky ~ 30° to 32°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30° to 32°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30° to 32°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30° to 32°

Winds will be from this direction: North northwest 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Frost and or freeze possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:08 PM
Moonset: 9:22 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous

 

Dry on Halloween.  Partly sunny.  Chilly.  Highs only in the 40s.  Lows Tuesday night in the 20s.

.

 

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.



.

Weather Highlights

    1.   Warm few days ahead of us.
    2.   Widespread rain develops Friday into Sunday night.
    3.   Frost and freeze chances increasing.

 

Weather advice:

Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.

 

.Forecast Discussion

Forecast confidence has greatly increased over the last 24 hours.

First, it will be warm today into Saturday.  Widespread 70s and 80s.  WELL above seasonal averages.  It will feel more like spring.  Gusty winds, as well.

We will have quite a few clouds into Monday.  A warm moist atmosphere has overspread the region.

There are some returns on radar this morning, but most if not all of that is simply virga.  Virga is rain that is not reaching the ground.  It is evaporating.  There could be some patchy sprinkles or light showers here and there.  For the most part, however, today and tonight will be dry.

We will have low end shower chances Thursday over mainly southeast Missouri and perhaps far southwest Illinois.  Otherwise, expect Thursday to be dry, warm, and windy.

Winds into Monday will range from 10 to 30 mph.  Gusty.

Rain chances slowly, but surely, ramp up Thursday night.  Becoming numerous Friday into Sunday night.

Rain totals continue to increase with this system.

It appears that a widespread one to two inches of rain will impact the region.  Pockets of two to three inches.

The vast majority of the region remains in drought conditions.  Thus, this rain is needed.

The rain could come down hard enough to create ponding on roadways and fill ditches.  Areas of poor drainage, due to falling leaves, could have issues.

Widespread flash flooding is not anticipated, because of the dry ground conditions.  The rain will be soaked up by the dry ground.

Thunderstorms will be possible, but we are not anticipating severe weather.  That is the good news.

If you have outdoor plans Friday into the weekend, then have a solid plan B.  Plain on rain and gusty winds.  Many outdoor events may need to be moved indoors.

A washout is possible in some counties Friday into Sunday.

The cold front will slowly nudge its way into the region Saturday and Saturday night.  Accelerating through the region Sunday into Sunday night.

Temperatures will turn colder immediately behind the frontal boundary.  Falling temperatures are anticipated Sunday.  Highs will occur early in the day.

It will be much colder by Monday and Tuesday.

Gusty winds may help prevent frost Monday night, but frost is becoming increasingly likely Tuesday night.  Perhaps Wednesday night, as well.

A freeze is possible both Monday and Tuesday night.  A freeze occurs when temperatures fall to or below 32 degrees, of course.

Let’s look at some maps.

You can see the falling temperatures on this animation.

Double click images to enlarge them.  Time stamp upper left.  This is in Zulu time.  00z=7 pm.  12z=7 am.

Rainfall totals continue to increase.

Here is the latest WPC/NOAA rainfall forecast.  The bulk of this will fall Friday into Sunday night.

Here is the model blend rainfall totals.  Take the general idea from this and not the specifics.

Let’s look at the blend of models low temperature forecast for Monday and Tuesday night.

Frost will be possible Wednesday night/Thursday morning, as well.

Monday night/Tuesday morning

Tuesday night/Wednesday morning

 



.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.

.

Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables.  Click here.

.

Tornado Probability Outlook

.

Large Hail Probability Outlook

.

High wind Probability Outlook

.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

.

Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

 

.

.

The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
.

.

48-hour precipitation outlook.
.
.

 

_______________________________________

.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

  1. The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
  2. The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

.

What am I looking at?

You are looking at computer model data.  Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

Green represents light rain.  Dark green represents moderate rain.  Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.

.

This  animation is the Hrrr Model.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

 

.

This  animation is the EC Model.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

 

.

..

..

.
.

.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

.

.
.
Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
.

Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

.

The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk

Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.

The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.

Apple users click here

Android users click here



.

Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

.

Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

.

.

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool.   Click here.

College of DuPage satellites. Click here

.

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

.

.
Find Beau on Facebook! Click the banner.

.

Find Beau on Twitter! Share your weather photos! @beaudodson

2016-11-19_11-50-24

.


 

 

Comments are closed.