Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

October 23, 2023: Monitoring rain chances. Colder towards the middle of next week.

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Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region.  Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.  Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities).  Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

Today’s almanac numbers from a few select local cities.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what  year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

Then, it shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today.  Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.

 

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Click the button below and it will take you to the Beau Dodson YouTube Channel.


48-hour forecast



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Monday to Monday

1. Is lightning in the forecast?  Possible.  I am watching Friday/Friday night.  Saturday.  Monday and Monday night, as well.

2.  Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast?  Not at this time.  Monitor updates.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.

4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees?  No.

5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees?  No.

6.  Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast?  No.

7.  Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast?  No.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines

 

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Monday, October 23,  2023
Confidence in the forecast?  High Confidence  
Monday Forecast:  Partly sunny.  A few more clouds far south vs north.  Warm.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%

Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 75° to 78°
Southeast Missouri ~ 75° to 78°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 75° to 80°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 75° to 80°
Southern Illinois ~ 75° to 80°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 75° to 80°
Far western Kentucky ~ 75° to 80°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 75° to 80°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 75° to 80°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 75° to 80°

Winds will be from this direction:  East southeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 75° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 6:07 PM
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Monday Night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%

Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 56° to 58°
Southeast Missouri ~ 56° to 60°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 58° to 60°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 56° to 60°
Southern Illinois ~  56° to 60°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 56° to 60°
Far western Kentucky ~  56° to 60°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 56° to 60°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 54° to 58°
Northwest Tennessee ~  56° to 60°

Winds will be from this direction: South southeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:31 PM
Moonset: 12:51AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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Tuesday, October 24,  2023
Confidence in the forecast?  High Confidence  
Tuesday Forecast:  Increasing clouds.  Warm.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%

Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 76° to 80°
Southeast Missouri ~ 76° to 80°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 78° to 82°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 76° to 80°
Southern Illinois ~ 76° to 80°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 78° to 80°
Far western Kentucky ~ 78° to 80°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 76° to 80°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 76° to 80°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 78° to 82°

Winds will be from this direction:  South 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 82°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 6:06 PM
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Tuesday Night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers over mainly southeast Missouri.  Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%

Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: After 6 pm
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
Southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
The Missouri Bootheel ~  58° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~  58° to 62°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~  58° to 62°
Far western Kentucky ~ 58° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~  58° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 58° to 62°

Winds will be from this direction: South southeast 15 to 25 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:03 PM
Moonset: 2:05 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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Wednesday, October 25,  2023
Confidence in the forecast?  High Confidence  
Wednesday Forecast:  Intervals of sun and clouds. A chance of showers. Warm. Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%

Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly before 1 PM
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 76° to 80°
Southeast Missouri ~ 76° to 80°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 78° to 82°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 76° to 80°
Southern Illinois ~ 76° to 80°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 76° to 80°
Far western Kentucky ~ 78° to 80°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 78° to 80°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 75° to 80°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 78° to 82°

Winds will be from this direction:  South 15 to 25 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 82°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:13 AM
Sunset: 6:06 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy. Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%

Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
Southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 58° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 58° to 62°
Far western Kentucky ~ 58° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 58° to 62°

Winds will be from this direction: South  15 to 25 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:34 PM
Moonset: 3:19 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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Thursday, October 26,  2023
Confidence in the forecast?  High Confidence  
Thursday Forecast:  Intervals of sun and clouds.  A chance of showers. Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%

Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 75° to 78°
Southeast Missouri ~ 76° to 78°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 76° to 80°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 74° to 78°
Southern Illinois ~ 76° to 78°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 76° to 78°
Far western Kentucky ~ 76° to 80°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 76° to 80°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 74° to 78°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 76° to 80°

Winds will be from this direction:  South 15 to 25 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 75° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:13 AM
Sunset: 6:04 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  A chance of showers. Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%

Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 62°
Southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 62° to 65°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 62° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 62° to 65°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 62° to 65°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 62° to 65°

Winds will be from this direction: South  15 to 25 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 5:01 PM
Moonset: 4:32 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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Friday, October 27,  2023
Confidence in the forecast?  Medium Confidence  
Friday Forecast:  Intervals of sun and clouds. A chance of showers.  A thunderstorm will be possible. Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%

Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 75° to 80°
Southeast Missouri ~ 75° to 80°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 78° to 80°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 75° to 80°
Southern Illinois ~ 75° to 80°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 76° to 80°
Far western Kentucky ~ 76° to 80°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 76° to 80°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 75° to 80°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 78° to 80°

Winds will be from this direction:  South southwest 15 to 25 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 75° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:14 AM
Sunset: 6:03 PM
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Friday Night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  A chance of showers. A thunderstorm will be possible. Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%

Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 56°
Southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 56°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 56° to 60°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 54° to 56°
Southern Illinois ~ 54° to 56°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 56° to 58°
Far western Kentucky ~ 56° to 58°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 56° to 58°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 54° to 56°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 58° to 60°

Winds will be from this direction: Southwest 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 5:28 PM
Moonset: 5:44 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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Saturday, October 28,  2023
Confidence in the forecast?  Medium Confidence  
Saturday Forecast:  Intervals of sun and clouds. A chance of showers.  A thunderstorm will be possible. Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%

Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 72°
Southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 72°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 68° to 72°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 68° to 72°
Southern Illinois ~ 68° to 72°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 68° to 72°
Far western Kentucky ~ 68° to 72°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 68° to 72°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 68° to 72°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 68° to 72°

Winds will be from this direction:  South southwest 15 to 25 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:  68° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:15 AM
Sunset: 6:02 PM
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Saturday Night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  A chance of showers. A thunderstorm will be possible. Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%

Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 58°
Southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 56°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 56° to 60°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 54° to 56°
Southern Illinois ~ 54° to 56°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 56° to 58°
Far western Kentucky ~ 56° to 58°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 56° to 58°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 54° to 56°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 58° to 60°

Winds will be from this direction: South southeast 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 5:57 PM
Moonset: 6:57 AM
The phase of the moon:  Full

 

 

 

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Weather Highlights

    1.   Warm weather.  Well above average temperatures for several days.
    2.   Monitoring mid to late week rain chances.
    3.   Monitoring a strong cold front around Halloween.

 

Weather advice:

Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.

 

.Forecast Discussion

A complicated weather pattern is shaping up for the week ahead.

We do not have any weather concerns today or tomorrow.  It will be warm.  Much above average temperatures.  Winds will begin to pick up tomorrow and tomorrow night.

Check out all this warm air on the EC ensembles.

This is the high temperature matrix.  Each row is one day.  The far left is today. The far right is November 6th.

Each row shows you what the EC model is predicting for a high temperature.  These are ensembles.  Ensembles are ran over and over again.  The more the numbers agree, the higher the confidence in the final forecast.

You can see the colder air next week.

Winds will be gusty into the weekend.  You can expect mainly southerly winds at 10 to 30 mph.  Saturday or Sunday the winds will become west northwest behind a frontal boundary.

A slow moving storm system will spread clouds into the region tomorrow and tomorrow night.

A few showers will be possible over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois tomorrow night into Wednesday morning.

I capped chances in the 20 to 30% range.  Don’t expect much.

The frontal system will move northward Wednesday.  That will take the shower chances northward by Wednesday afternoon and night.

The system will push towards our region Thursday and Friday.  This will bring increasing shower chances.  A few embedded thunderstorms will be possible, as well.

Rain chances ramp up Thursday and Thursday night.   Into the 40% to 60% range.  Peak rain chances appear to be Friday into Saturday.

That is subject to adjustments.  The guidance packages have not been consistent in the exact timing of the higher rain chances.

For now, as you can see above, I have them Friday and Saturday.

If you have outdoor plans this week, then you will want to monitor updates.

The messy pattern continues into early next week.  Several waves of low pressure will spread additional rain chances into the region Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday.

Model guidance has been all over the place with the passage of a strong autumn cold front around Halloween.

Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front.  Much colder air behind the front.  Our regions first widespread heavy frost and/or a freeze will be possible towards the middle of next week.

There is still several days to monitor that portion of the forecast.  Again, guidance has not been all that helpful on the specific details (just how cold it will be).

I will be fine tuning the forecast over the coming days.

For the time being, I do not have any severe thunderstorms in the forecast.  I will keep an eye on next weeks system.  It is stronger.  Thus, I can’t rule out some increasing chances of thunderstorms as the cold front passes through our region.

Here is yesterday morning’s GFS model.  A strong storm system in our region with heavy rain, gusty wind, and even storms.

But, look at what last night’s model showed.  Same model.  Different run.  This model runs four times each day.

A more suppressed system.  Not as strong.

That shows you the uncertainties in the long range forecast.  I will continue to monitor trends.  I likely won’t have a handle on the specifics until Thursday or Friday.

Let’s look at temperatures

Yesterday’s GFS showed this for next Wednesday morning.

Now, the new run showed this.  Much colder.  It is all over the place.

Let’s look at some probabilities from the GEFS.  The GFS ensembles.

What is the probability of temperatures dipping down to 32 degrees or lower?

Next Wednesday morning

Next Thursday morning

We can see the warm air ahead of the cold front.

Here is Friday’s temperature anomalies.  How many degrees above average will temperatures be.

And then behind the front next Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.

Let’s take a look at the WPC/NOAA rainfall forecast.

For the next 72 hours.  Not much.

Through next Monday morning.  You can see heavy totals to our west.  Several inches in areas that need the rain.

We need the rain, as well.  Our region won’t receive as much as areas to our west.  Through Monday morning, at least.

We will have to see if the Halloween system can add to these totals.  That is a maybe, at this point.



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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.

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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables.  Click here.

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Tornado Probability Outlook

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Large Hail Probability Outlook

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High wind Probability Outlook

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

 

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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

  1. The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
  2. The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

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What am I looking at?

You are looking at computer model data.  Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

Green represents light rain.  Dark green represents moderate rain.  Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.

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This  animation is the Hrrr Model.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

 

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This  animation is the NAM Model.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

 

 

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
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If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
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Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
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Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool.   Click here.

College of DuPage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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2016-11-19_11-50-24

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