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Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.
Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.
Today’s almanac numbers from a few select local cities.
The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.
The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.
It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.
Then, it shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).
It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.
It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.
The sunrise and sunset are also shown.
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Click the button below and it will take you to the Beau Dodson YouTube Channel.
48-hour forecast
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Monday to Monday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible Tuesday night into at least Thursday. Perhaps into the weekend.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. Thunderstorms are likely this week. Some could be severe. Monitor updates.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. Slow moving or training thunderstorms could cause flash flooding.
4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? Yes. Heat index may approach or exceed 100 degrees Wednesday into Saturday. This will be highly dependent on cloud cover and any thunderstorm complexes. That would mean lower temperatures.
5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
6. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? No.
7. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? No.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines
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Monday, July 10, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Monday Forecast: Morning fog will mix out. Mostly sunny. Warm. Less humid.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 86° to 88°
Southeast Missouri ~ 86° to 90°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 86° to 90°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 86° to 88°
Southern Illinois ~ 86° to 88°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 86° to 90°
Far western Kentucky ~ 86° to 90°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 86° to 90°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 86° to 88°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 86° to 90°
Winds will be from this direction: North becoming east southeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 90°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:43 AM
Sunset: 8:18 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 65°
Southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 62° to 64°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 62°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60° to 62°
Far western Kentucky ~ 60° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60° to 62°
Winds will be from this direction: South 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:39 AM
Moonset: 1:54 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Tuesday, July 11, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Warmer.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 88° to 92°
Southeast Missouri ~ 88° to 92°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 88° to 92°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 88° to 92°
Southern Illinois ~ 88° to 92°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 88° to 92°
Far western Kentucky ~ 88° to 92°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 88° to 92°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 88° to 92°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 88° to 92°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 92°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:44AM
Sunset: 8:18 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 65° to 70°
Southeast Missouri ~ 65° to 70°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 65° to 70°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 65° to 70°
Southern Illinois ~ 65° to 70°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 65° to 70°
Far western Kentucky ~ 65° to 70°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 65° to 70°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 65° to 70°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 65° to 70°
Winds will be from this direction: Souths southwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:05 AM
Moonset: 3:00 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Wednesday, July 12, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? Medium Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Most likely in the afternoon, but monitor updates. Some storms could be severe.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous. A line of storms may impact the area.
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly after 12 PM
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 88° to 92°
Southeast Missouri ~ 88° to 92°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 88° to 92°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 88° to 92°
Southern Illinois ~ 88° to 92°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 88° to 92°
Far western Kentucky ~ 88° to 92°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 88° to 92°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 88° to 92°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 88° to 92°
Winds will be from this direction: South 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 94° to 98°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty winds near storms. Locally heavy rain. Some storms could be severe. Monitor updates.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:44 AM
Sunset: 8:17 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Some storms could be severe.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80%
Southern Illinois ~ 80%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 72°
Southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 72°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 68° to 72°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 68° to 72°
Southern Illinois ~ 68° to 72°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 68° to 72°
Far western Kentucky ~ 68° to 72°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 68° to 72°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 68° to 72°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 68° to 72°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty wind near storms. Locally heavy rain. Some storms could be severe.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:34 AM
Moonset: 4:07 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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- Warm weather.
- MCS’s are in the forecast. Some could bring heavy rain and severe weather. MCS’s are summer thunderstorm complexes.
- Severe weather and flash flooding.
Weather advice:
Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
Don’t forget the sunscreen on this summer warm days! Review summer heat safety rules.
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Forecast Discussion
Today’s Average Regional Forecast Numbers
Temperatures will vary based on cloud cover and precipitation. Keep that in mind.
Monitoring the risk of thunderstorms. Some heavy.
Hello, everyone. I do hope you had a wonderful weekend!
It was a wet one (for some). Rain totals ranged from 0.00 to over FIVE inches! You have to love our summer thunderstorm rain events. The variability is impressive.
This time, the southern quarter of the region ended up with the big rain totals. The rest of us just watched radar and wished it would rain.
Here are some graphics of radar indicated rain totals.
Double click images to enlarge them.
Even within a few miles of each other, the rain totals varied wildly. This is less than 10 miles apart in western Kentucky.
Southeast Missouri.
Feast or famine weather. That is what I call this pattern. Not everyone shares in the much needed rain events.
But, that is the nature of the beast during the summer. The haves and the have nots.
The good news is that we have more rain chances in the forecast. Perhaps a broader portion of the region will share in the higher rain totals.
For today, however, it will be nice. We are starting out the day with some fog. That fog will mix out this morning. That will leave us with quite a bit of sunshine after the stratus is gone.
It will be mild today.
No weather concerns today through tomorrow afternoon.
Some of the models show a dying thunderstorm or two approaching our northern counties Tuesday afternoon and evening. I will keep an eye on that.
Eyes then turn to Tuesday night into the rest of the week.
A few storms may impact the region Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, but more likely will be a complex of thunderstorms (called an MCS) moving into the region Wednesday afternoon and night.
This complex would likely be severe with damaging wind and hail. Heavy rain and lightning, as well. Perhaps a tornado risk.
The NAM models shows quite a bit of CAPE in the region. CAPE is energy that storms tap into.
Storms like to move around the edge of the higher CAPE values. This is the Wednesday afternoon CAPE animation.
As you may know by now, forecasting an MCS event is difficult days in advance. The best we can do is forecast the general idea and track. For now, subject to adjustments, it appears that the MCS will track through the St Louis area and then into our region late Wednesday afternoon and night.
Some data takes it a bit farther northeast and tracks it through southeast Illinois and southern Indiana and then into portions of Kentucky.
Both ideas are plausible.
Where the MCS does track, there will be some heavy rain totals. Several inches of rain will be possible with widespread 0.50 to 1.00″ totals. Then, some totals well over an inch.
Track will be key for your location. Monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather App. I am sure there will be several messages between now and Wednesday.
Confidence will increase in the forecast tomorrow. That is when the event will enter the high resolution model range. I can then start to monitor trends in the guidance for both track and intensity.
The WPC has placed us in a risk of excessive rainfall Wednesday/Wednesday night. That means some flash flooding will be possible.
WPC rainfall totals forecast through next Monday. The key to higher totals will be the track of the thunderstorm complexes.
Some areas could exceed five inches of rain.
The Storm Prediction Center already has our region outlined for a risk of severe weather Wednesday and Wednesday night.
The NAM 3K model shows an MCS approaching our region Wednesday afternoon and evening. This would be severe.
It would move northwest to southeast.
The forecast becomes increasingly complicated Thursday into the weekend.
Several more MCS’s may develop and track through the Missouri and Ohio Valleys. If this is the case, then we will have additional heavy rain and perhaps severe weather.
Confidence in the forecast Thursday into the weekend isn’t great. Not yet, at least. There are too many moving parts and variables for confidence to be high.
I will need to see what happens with the Wednesday/Wednesday night event, before increasing the confidence in the forecast Thursday onward.
The track of the Wednesday complex will impact the Thursday forecast.
If you have outdoor plans Thursday into the weekend, then you will want to monitor updated forecasts.
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
Today through April 18th: A couple of the Saturday afternoon and night thunderstorms could produce damaging wind and hail. The tornado risk is low, but not zero. Mainly over Missouri for the tornado risk. The line will weaken with time as it moves farther east.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
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Tornado Probability Outlook
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Large Hail Probability Outlook
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High wind Probability Outlook
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.
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This animation is the NAM 3K Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the NAM Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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