Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region.  Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.  Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities).  Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

Today’s almanac numbers from a few select local cities.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what  year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

Then, it shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today.  Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.

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48-hour forecast

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Thursday, July 6, 2023
Confidence in the forecast?  High Confidence  
Thursday Forecast:    Partly sunny. Warm. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 84° to 86°
Southeast Missouri ~ 84° to 86°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 84° to 86°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~  84° to 86°
Southern Illinois ~ 84° to 86°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 84° to 86°
Far western Kentucky ~ 84° to 86°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 84° to 86°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 84° to 86°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 84° to 86°
Winds will be from this direction:  North northwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:41 AM
Sunset:  8:19 PM
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Thursday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy. A chance of an early evening shower or thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation:  Mainly before 10 pm
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 64°
Southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 64°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 66° to 68°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 62° to 64°
Southern Illinois ~ 62° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 63° to 66°
Far western Kentucky ~ 66° to 68°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 64° to 68°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 63° to 66°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 65° to 70°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 11:19 PM
Moonset: 9:12 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous

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Friday, July 07, 2023
Confidence in the forecast?  High Confidence  
Friday  Forecast:    Mostly sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time (more likely in the afternoon heat of the day)
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 86° to 88°
Southeast Missouri ~ 86° to 88°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 86° to 90°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 86° to 88°
Southern Illinois ~ 86° to 88°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 86° to 88°
Far western Kentucky ~ 86° to 88°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 86° to 88°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 86° to 88°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 86° to 90°
Winds will be from this direction:  Northeast becoming southeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 92°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:41AM
Sunset:  8:19 PM
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Friday night Forecast:  Increasing clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 68°
Southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 68°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 66° to 70°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 64° to 68°
Southern Illinois ~ 64° to 68°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 64° to 68°
Far western Kentucky ~ 66° to 68°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 66° to 68°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 64° to 68°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 68° to 70°
Winds will be from this direction:  Southeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 11:45 PM
Moonset: 10:27 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous

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Saturday, July 08, 2023
Confidence in the forecast?  High Confidence  
Saturday  Forecast:  Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely.  Locally heavy rain possible.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation:  Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 82° to 84°
Southeast Missouri ~ 82° to 84°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 83° to 86°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 82° to 84°
Southern Illinois ~ 82° to 84°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 82° to 84°
Far western Kentucky ~ 82° to 85°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 82° to 85°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 82° to 85°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 84° to 86°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning. Locally heavy rain.  Some storms could be intense.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 8. High
Sunrise: 5:42 AM
Sunset:  8:19 PM
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Saturday night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 66°
Southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 66°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 68°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 63° to 66°
Southern Illinois ~ 63° to 66°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 63° to 66°
Far western Kentucky ~ 63° to 66°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 64° to 68°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 64° to 68°
Winds will be from this direction:  Variable wind direction at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Locally heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updated forecasts and radars.
Moonrise:
Moonset: 11:38 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous

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Sunday, July 09, 2023
Confidence in the forecast?  Medium Confidence  
Sunday  Forecast:  Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely.  Locally heavy rain possible.  There are questions about how far south the cold front might move Sunday.  If the front pushes farther south than expected, then rain chances will be lower.  Keep that in mind.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 82° to 84°
Southeast Missouri ~ 82° to 84°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 83° to 86°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 82° to 84°
Southern Illinois ~ 82° to 84°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 82° to 84°
Far western Kentucky ~ 82° to 85°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 82° to 85°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 82° to 85°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 84° to 86°
Winds will be from this direction: North 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning. Locally heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 7. High
Sunrise: 5:42 AM
Sunset:  8:18 PM
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Sunday night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 64°
Southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 64°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 66°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 62° to 64°
Southern Illinois ~ 62° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 62° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 63° to 66°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 63° to 66°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 64° to 66°
Winds will be from this direction: North 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts and the Beau Dodson Weather radars.
Moonrise: 12:12 AM
Moonset: 12:47 PM
The phase of the moon:  Last Quarter

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Forecast Discussion

Today’s Average Regional Forecast Numbers

Temperatures will vary based on cloud cover and precipitation.  Keep that in mind.

Increasing weekend shower and thunderstorm chances.

Good day, everyone!

We had numerous showers and thunderstorms in the region yesterday.  Peak coverage was across southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.  The showers and thunderstorms, some quite intense, diminished as they moved eastward.  About what was expected.

There were a couple of wind damage reports.

Some locations received three+ inches of rain!

Here are the radar estimated rain totals.

Double click images to enlarge them.

Today will be calmer.  Warm.  A couple of showers and thunderstorms will be possible.  But, the bulk of the region will be dry today and tonight.

We do have slight chances of showers and thunderstorms Friday.  Warm.  Expect mostly dry conditions during the day.

Shower and thunderstorm chances ramp up Friday night into the weekend.

Several MCS’s are likely to push across our region.

A warm front will push northward through the area Friday night into Saturday morning.  This will set the stage for a humid and unstable air-mass to develop.

There are some questions about the potential for an MCS (thunderstorm complex) late Friday night and Saturday morning.  If that moves across our region, then Saturday may not be as unstable.  This will need to be monitored.

If the atmosphere does destabilize Saturday, then a few storms could produce wind damage.  The hail and tornado threat will likely remain low.

Locally heavy rain is a concern Friday night into Sunday evening.

Rain totals could easily exceed three inches in some areas.  Generally, rain totals will be around an inch this weekend.

Keep in mind, however, that much higher totals are possible.  I can’t rule out pockets of flash flooding.  Stay weather aware and avoid flooded roadways.

The WPC/NWS has us in a risk of flash flooding Friday night and Saturday.  The risk is higher Saturday.

Mainly our western counties Friday night.  This simply means excessive rainfall will be possible.  Flash flooding.

Friday Outlook for excessive rainfall.

Here is Saturday’s excessive rainfall outlook.

Again, some locations could receive enough rain to cause flash flooding.

Questions about Sunday’s forecast center around the placement of a cold front.  If the front pushes far enough south, then the higher rain chances will exit our local area.

Confidence in the details remains lower than normal.

Some of the guidance keeps the front stalled over our area.  If that happens, then numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop.  Some heavy.

I will need to monitor trends concerning Sunday’s forecast.

We need the rain (well most of us still need rain).  Some do not.   Some counties have received more than nine inches of rain in the past week.

For outdoor planning purposes, plan on numerous showers and thunderstorms late Friday night into Saturday night.  Then, plan on at least some showers and thunderstorms Sunday. Monitor updated forecasts.

Boaters and those camping will want to remain weather aware.  Lightning will be a concern for outdoor events.

Monday and Monday night are forecast to deliver mostly dry conditions.  Just slight rain chances.

I will need to monitor Tuesday and Wednesday for additional shower and thunderstorm chances.

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Today through April 18th:  A couple of the Saturday afternoon and night thunderstorms could produce damaging wind and hail.  The tornado risk is low, but not zero.  Mainly over Missouri for the tornado risk.  The line will weaken with time as it moves farther east.

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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables.  Click here.

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Tornado Probability Outlook

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Large Hail Probability Outlook

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High wind Probability Outlook

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

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This  animation is the GFS Model.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 87 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 65 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.00″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 88 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 66 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.00″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool.   Click here.

College of DuPage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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