Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region.  Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.  Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities).  Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

Today’s almanac numbers from a few select local cities.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what  year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

Then, it shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today.  Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.

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48-hour forecast

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Wednesday, July 5, 2023
Confidence in the forecast?  High Confidence  
Wednesday Forecast:   Mostly sunny. Hot.  A chance of thunderstorms. Mostly this afternoon and evening.  A few of the storms could be intense.  Especially over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~  40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered east and numerous central and west
Timing of the precipitation:  Chances are higher after 12 PM into the evening hours.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 90° to 94°
Southeast Missouri ~ 90° to 94°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 90° to 94°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 90° to 94°
Southern Illinois ~ 90° to 94°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 90° to 94°
Far western Kentucky ~ 90° to 94°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 90° to 94°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 90° to 94°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90° to 94°
Winds will be from this direction:  South southwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 92° to 98° locally higher
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Storms could produce high wind and hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:40 AM
Sunset:  8:20 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Especially during the evening hours.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~  60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~  40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous (esp early)
Timing of the precipitation: Mostly before midnight
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 72°
Southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 72°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 68° to 72°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 68° to 72°
Southern Illinois ~ 68° to 72°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~  68° to 72°
Far western Kentucky ~ 68° to 72°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 68° to 72°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 68° to 72°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 68° to 72°
Winds will be from this direction:  Variable wind direction 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning. Storms could produce high wind and hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 10:42 PM
Moonset: 7:54 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous

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Thursday, July 6, 2023
Confidence in the forecast?  High Confidence  
Thursday Forecast:    Partly sunny. Warm. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 84° to 86°
Southeast Missouri ~ 84° to 86°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 84° to 86°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~  84° to 86°
Southern Illinois ~ 84° to 86°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 84° to 86°
Far western Kentucky ~ 84° to 86°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 84° to 86°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 84° to 86°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 84° to 86°
Winds will be from this direction:  North northwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning. Storms could produce high wind and hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:41 AM
Sunset:  8:19 PM
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Thursday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy. A chance of an early evening shower or thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation:  Mainly before 10 pm
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
Southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 64°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 63° to 66°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Southern Illinois ~ 62° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 62° to 65°
Far western Kentucky ~ 62° to 65°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 62° to 65°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 64° to 66°
Winds will be from this direction: North 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning. Storms could produce high wind and hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 11:19 PM
Moonset: 9:12 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous

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Friday, July 07, 2023
Confidence in the forecast?  High Confidence  
Friday  Forecast:    Mostly sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time (more likely in the afternoon heat of the day)
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 86° to 88°
Southeast Missouri ~ 86° to 88°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 86° to 88°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 86° to 88°
Southern Illinois ~ 86° to 88°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 86° to 88°
Far western Kentucky ~ 86° to 88°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 86° to 88°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 86° to 88°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 86° to 88°
Winds will be from this direction:  Northeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 92°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:41AM
Sunset:  8:19 PM
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Friday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 68°
Southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 68°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 68°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 64° to 68°
Southern Illinois ~ 64° to 68°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 64° to 68°
Far western Kentucky ~ 64° to 68°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 64° to 68°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 64° to 68°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 64° to 68°
Winds will be from this direction:  Southeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 11:45 PM
Moonset: 10:27 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous

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Saturday, July 08, 2023
Confidence in the forecast?  High Confidence  
Saturday  Forecast:  Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely.  Locally heavy rain possible.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation:  Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 82° to 85°
Southeast Missouri ~ 82° to 85°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 84° to 86°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 82° to 85°
Southern Illinois ~ 82° to 85°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 82° to 85°
Far western Kentucky ~ 82° to 85°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 82° to 85°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 82° to 85°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 84° to 86°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning. Locally heavy rain.  Some storms could be intense.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 8. High
Sunrise: 5:42 AM
Sunset:  8:19 PM
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Saturday night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 64°
Southeast Missouri ~ 63° to 66°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 68°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 62° to 64°
Southern Illinois ~ 63° to 66°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 63° to 66°
Far western Kentucky ~ 63° to 66°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 64° to 68°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 64° to 68°
Winds will be from this direction:  Variable wind direction at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Locally heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updated forecasts and radars.
Moonrise:
Moonset: 11:38 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous

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Forecast Discussion

Today’s Average Regional Forecast Numbers

Temperatures will vary based on cloud cover and precipitation.  Keep that in mind.

Tracking thunderstorms and heat.

It is going to be a hot day for the region.  Temperatures will be in the 90s with heat index values of 100 degrees.  Muggy air.

This is all occurring ahead of a cold front that will push into the region this afternoon and tonight.

There are a couple of showers and thunderstorms on radar this morning, but the bulk of this weather event will be this afternoon and tonight.

This is the MCS (thunderstorm complex) currently impacting eastern Kansas and western Missouri.  It will weaken this morning and then redevelop this afternoon and evening.

Some of the thunderstorms could be severe with damaging wind, large hail, heavy rain, and lightning.  An isolated tornado threat.

Here is the day one severe weather risk.  Yellow is the level two risk (the highest risk on the chart)

The threat is a bit higher over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.

With time, the thunderstorms will weaken as they push farther into Kentucky and Tennessee.

We are going to have daily shower and thunderstorm chances into next week.  It is not going to rain all the time.

There will be time periods where the thunderstorm chances will be between 10% and 20%.  See the daily forecast.  Other times, MCS’s will be possible.

Remember, MCS’s are thunderstorm complexes that can bring heavy rain and severe weather.  We went through that last weekend with FOUR straight days of severe weather.

That includes thousands of wind damage and hail events.  Even a tornado in western Kentucky.  Rainfall totals during those four days topped NINE inches in some counties.

Here are the rainfall totals from the past seven days (what has already fallen).  Some locations exceeded nine inches of rain.

Which, was the forecast.  I was calling for three to six inches.  I was too low.

Some locations could receive an additional two to four inches of rain between now and next Wednesday.  I can’t rule out higher than four inches.

That won’t be the norm, of course.  Generally, many areas will, however, receive at least an inch or more of rain.  Good news for those needing rain.  Some locations are now too wet.  Got to love our regions weather.  Drought to floods.  No middle ground for some.

There will be additional severe thunderstorm risks, as well.  For now, I am monitoring the weekend closely.  If wind fields increase, which data shows they will, then the threat of severe weather increases.

Saturday could be a wet and storm day in the region as a warm front lifts through the region.  A few storms could be quite intense.  Monitor updates.

That will continue into Saturday night.  Locally very heavy rain will be possible.

Sunday’s forecast will depend on where Saturday’s features end up.  If the front pushes too far south of us, then the heavy rain threat would spread southward.  If the system is draped over our region, then we will have widespread showers and thunderstorms.

Monitor forecasts.  I will know a bit more tomorrow.

Here is the official NWS/WPC rainfall forecast for the next 48 hours.

Then, the seven day rainfall forecast.

Again, keep in mind, there will be pockets of MUCH MUCH higher totals.

The active weather will continue.  Good news for drought stricken areas.

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Today through April 18th:  A couple of the Saturday afternoon and night thunderstorms could produce damaging wind and hail.  The tornado risk is low, but not zero.  Mainly over Missouri for the tornado risk.  The line will weaken with time as it moves farther east.

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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables.  Click here.

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Tornado Probability Outlook

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Large Hail Probability Outlook

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High wind Probability Outlook

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 87 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 65 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.00″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 88 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 66 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.00″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool.   Click here.

College of DuPage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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