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Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
An excessive heat advisory has been issued for most of the region. Portions of the region are in an excessive heat warning.
It’s going to be hot. That is the bottom line. Especially, Thursday into Friday. Perhaps Saturday.
Temperatures will vary based on cloud cover and any thunderstorm activity, keep that in mind.
Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.
Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.
Today’s almanac numbers from a few select local cities.
The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.
The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.
It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.
Then, it shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).
It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.
It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.
The sunrise and sunset are also shown.
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Click the button below and it will take you to the Beau Dodson YouTube Channel.
48-hour forecast
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Thursday to Thursday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning will be possible into next week. The highest chances of lightning will be this morning over our north northeast counties. Then, we will have to monitor this afternoon and tonight for fresh thunderstorm development. The atmosphere will have a CAP/lid on it. Storms may struggle to form. If they do form, however, they will be intense.
Lightning is possible Friday into next week.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. Some storms could be intense this week/weekend. Damaging wind and hail will be the primary threat.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. Slow moving or training thunderstorms could cause flash flooding.
4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? Yes. Heat index values will rise above 100 degrees Thursday and Friday. Perhaps Saturday.
5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
6. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? No.
7. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? No.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines
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Thursday, June 29, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Hot. Mostly sunny over the western half of the region. A complex of storms will track through southeast Illinois, southwest Indiana, and northwest Kentucky. That could bring clouds to portions of southern Illinois and western Kentucky. If we do have more clouds, then shave a few degrees off the thermometer. Additional storms could form during the heat of the day. This will impact temperatures.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered (mainly IL/KY).
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 100° to 104°
Southeast Missouri ~ 100° to 104°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 100° to 104°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 98° to 100°
Southern Illinois ~ 100° to 104°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 100° to 104°
Far western Kentucky ~ 98° to 102°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 98° to 102°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 96° to 100°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 100° to 102°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 105° to 115° locally higher
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Storms could produce high wind and hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:37 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Warm. Partly cloudy. A chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 73° to 76°
Southeast Missouri ~ 74° to 78°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 76° to 80°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 72° to 74°
Southern Illinois ~ 73° to 76°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 73° to 76°
Far western Kentucky ~ 74° to 78°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 73° to 76°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 73° to 76°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 74° to 78°
Winds will be from this direction: West southwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 75° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Storms could produce high wind and hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 4:36 PM
Moonset: 2:12 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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Friday, June 30, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Friday Forecast: Hot. Mostly sunny over much of the region. Partly cloudy over Illinois and Kentucky. We will once again need to monitor for any thunderstorm complexes that could dive south southeast out of Illinois and Indiana.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered (mainly IL/KY).
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 103° to 106°
Southeast Missouri ~ 102° to 104°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 100° to 104°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 98° to 100°
Southern Illinois ~ 100° to 104°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 100° to 104°
Far western Kentucky ~ 98° to 102°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 98° to 102°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 96° to 100°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 100° to 102°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 105° to 115° locally higher
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Storms could produce high wind and hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:38 AM
Sunset: 8:21 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Warm. Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 73° to 76°
Southeast Missouri ~ 74° to 76°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 76° to 80°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 72° to 74°
Southern Illinois ~ 73° to 76°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 73° to 76°
Far western Kentucky ~ 73° to 76°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 73° to 76°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 73° to 76°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 73° to 76°
Winds will be from this direction: West southwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 75° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Storms could produce high wind and hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 5:47 PM
Moonset: 2:45 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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Saturday, July 01, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly sunny. Hot and muggy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 94° to 98°
Southeast Missouri ~ 94° to 98
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 94° to 98
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 94° to 98
Southern Illinois ~ 94° to 98
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 94° to 98
Far western Kentucky ~ 94° to 98
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 94° to 98
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 94° to 98
Northwest Tennessee ~ 94° to 98
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 100° to 105° locally higher
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Storms could produce high wind and hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:38 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 72°
Southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 72°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 72° to 74°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70° to 72°
Southern Illinois ~ 70° to 72°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70° to 72°
Far western Kentucky ~ 70° to 72°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70° to 72°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70° to 72°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 72° to 74°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 75° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Storms could produce high wind and hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 7:00 PM
Moonset: 3:27 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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- Severe thunderstorm threats.
- Heat wave.
Weather advice:
Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
Don’t forget the sunscreen on this summer warm days! Review summer heat safety rules.
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Forecast Discussion
Today’s Average Regional Forecast Numbers
Tracking thunderstorms and heat.
Good day, everyone!
I hope you are having a great week.
This is a complicated forecast. I have tried to educate you on the topic of MCS’s. Thunderstorm complexes. I would rather forecast snow for you exact block than forecast the track path of these MCS’s.
Models are basically useless with these events. We are left with watching satellite and radar. We are left with watching current observations.
This morning, we are waking up to two MCS’s.
One over southeast Illinois and southwest Indiana. One well to our northwest in Nebraska, Iowa, Kansas, and Missouri.
This is what they look like on IR satellite.
You are looking at IR satellite imagery. The colors represent temperature. Deep red colors are extremely cold cloud tops. Thunderstorms.
These systems typically peak late at night into the early morning. Then, they usually (not always) weaken. Then, they redevelop in the heat of the day.
We do have a threat of severe thunderstorms into the weekend.
Today’s Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center
The highest risk is the orange zone. Yellow is the next highest. Dark green is below that. Light green is sub-severe weather.
There are significant questions about today’s CAP. A CAP is warm air aloft. It can prevent thunderstorms from forming.
The CAP would save us from severe weather.
If storms break the CAP, then all modes of severe weather will occur. That includes 60+ mph winds, golf ball size hail, torrential rain, and frequent cloud to ground lightning.
Lightning has been prolific with these thunderstorms.
As of 7 AM, the bulk of the storms were over southeast Illinois and southwest Indiana.
You can see, the storms are mostly impacting our northeast counties.
These storms will move south southeast. They could impact Kentucky.
These storms will leave boundaries.
Boundaries can reignite storms later in the day. Thus, monitor updates.
Some models produce additional storms over Missouri and Illinois (as we move through the day). Again, these is a lid on the atmosphere. We will see how it goes.
There could be thunderstorm develop tonight into early next week. There are significant differences in the model data as to placement, timing, and coverage.
My advice to you is to monitor your Beau Dodson Weather app. Stay weather aware.
The next big weather story is the extreme heat.
Areas outside of clouds and rain will experience temperatures in the 96 to 106 degree range. Those are actual air temperatures.
Heat index values (what your body responds to) will range from 105 to 115 degrees.
We are waking up to muggy conditions. Dew points are already in the 70s in some counties. That is air you wear.
7 AM dew points. Dew point controls how muggy it feels.
Highs on Friday will range from 98 to 104 degrees. Heat index values of 100 to 110 degrees. Another very hot day. The only thing that could save us from the heat would be clouds and thunderstorms.
It will be hot into the weekend, but not as hot as today and tomorrow.
Once again, as mentioned above, thunderstorms (some severe) will be possible into the weekend. If you are camping or have outdoor events, then monitor your Beau Dodson Weather Radars (bottom of this page) and your Beau Dodson Weather app.
This can be a dangerous heat for the young and elderly. It can make for dangerous work conditions for those who have to work outside, as well.
Use caution, as always. Know the symptoms for heat related illnesses.
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
Today through April 18th: A couple of the Saturday afternoon and night thunderstorms could produce damaging wind and hail. The tornado risk is low, but not zero. Mainly over Missouri for the tornado risk. The line will weaken with time as it moves farther east.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
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Tornado Probability Outlook
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Large Hail Probability Outlook
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High wind Probability Outlook
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.
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This animation is the NAM 3K Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the Hrrr Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 87 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 65 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.00″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 66 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.00″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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