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Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
An excessive heat watch has been issued for Thursday and Friday.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Dangerously hot conditions with heat index values up to 112 possible. * WHERE...Portions of southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. * WHEN...From Thursday morning through Friday evening. * IMPACTS...Extreme heat and humidity will significantly increase the potential for heat related illnesses, particularly for those working or participating in outdoor activities. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...This system is tied to broad, record setting temperatures that have been occurring across parts of Texas. As it moves this way, it will bring triple digit highs both Thursday and Friday. We haven`t seen a couple days in a row of triple digit heat like that in our area since 2012. Add in the increasingly high humidity forecasted, and heat indices, how it will actually feel outside, will reach to around or above 110 both days.
Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.
Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.
Today’s almanac numbers from a few select local cities.
The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.
The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.
It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.
Then, it shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).
It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.
It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.
The sunrise and sunset are also shown.
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48-hour forecast
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Tuesday to Tuesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning will be possible into the weekend. This is a complicated forecast and once again many areas may remain dry. Others may have thunderstorms.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. Some storms could be intense this week/weekend.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. Slow moving heavy thunderstorms could briefly cause some ponding of water on roadways and in ditches.
4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? Yes. Heat index values will rise above 100 degrees Thursday and Friday.
5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
6. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? No.
7. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? No.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines
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Tuesday, June 27, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 88° to 90°
Southeast Missouri ~ 90° to 92°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 90° to 92°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 88° to 90°
Southern Illinois ~ 88° to 90°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 88° to 90°
Far western Kentucky ~ 90° to 92°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 88° to 90°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 88° to 90°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90° to 92°
Winds will be from this direction: North 8 to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 92°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:36 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear early. Then, increasing clouds late tonight. A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2 AM. Mainly over Missouri/Illinois.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: After 2 AM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 64°
Southeast Missouri ~ 63° to 66°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 66°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 62° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 62° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 63° to 66°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 62° to 65°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 65°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 63° to 66°
Winds will be from this direction: Variable wind direction 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 2:24 PM
Moonset: 1:20 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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Wednesday, June 28, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? Low Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. A chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Especially over southeast Missouri. Temperatures may vary based on cloud cover.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time (but mostly before noon).
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 90° to 92°
Southeast Missouri ~ 90° to 94°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 90° to 94°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 88° to 90°
Southern Illinois ~ 88° to 92°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 88° to 92°
Far western Kentucky ~ 88° to 92°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 88° to 92°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 88° to 90°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90° to 92°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 92°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:37 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of late night thunderstorms over mainly southeast Illinois and northwest Kentucky.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: After 12 AM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 72°
Southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 72°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70° to 74°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70° to 72°
Southern Illinois ~ 70° to 72°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70° to 72°
Far western Kentucky ~ 70° to 72°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70° to 72°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70° to 72°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70° to 72°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 3:28 PM
Moonset: 1:44 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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Thursday, June 29, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? Low Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny over the western half of the region. We may have a complex of storms track through central Illinois into Indiana. That could bring clouds to portions of southern Illinois and western Kentucky. If we do have more clouds, then shave a few degrees off the thermometer. If the complex of storms tracks farther southwest, then I will need to adjust the forecast and increase rain chances. Hot.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 100° to 104°
Southeast Missouri ~ 100° to 104°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 100° to 104°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 98° to 100°
Southern Illinois ~ 100° to 104°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 100° to 104°
Far western Kentucky ~ 98° to 102°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 98° to 102°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 96° to 100°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 100° to 102°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 104° to 108° locally higher
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:37 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of thunderstorms. Mainly over southeast Illinois and northwest Kentucky.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 73° to 76°
Southeast Missouri ~ 74° to 76°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 74° to 78°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 72° to 74°
Southern Illinois ~ 73° to 76°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 73° to 76°
Far western Kentucky ~ 73° to 76°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 73° to 76°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 73° to 76°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 73° to 76°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 4:36 PM
Moonset: 2:12 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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- Monitoring thunderstorm complexes into the weekend.
- Heat wave developing.
Weather advice:
Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
Don’t forget the sunscreen on this summer warm days! Review summer heat safety rules.
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Forecast Discussion
Today’s Average Regional Forecast Numbers
Tracking the Heat.
There are a couple of weather stories over the coming days.
There will be some chances of showers and thunderstorms, but don’t get your hopes up.
Several MCS systems (thunderstorm complexes) will track from northwest to southeast through Friday.
The first one will occur tonight and tomorrow morning. It is more likely to impact southeast Missouri, southwest Illinois, far western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee.
Let me show you some model guidance on that MCS. You can see why it is so frustrating trying to track these events.
The RRFS model guidance shows the system fairly far west. Perhaps clipping southeast Missouri. This would be Wednesday morning.
The HRW FV3 model guidance. This model shows it tracking south/southeast through quite a bit of the region. This is early Wednesday morning.
This is the HRW WRF NSSL model guidance. It shows almost nothing happening. This would be Wednesday morning.
This is the HRW WRF ARW model. It shows an MCS tracking south through our western counties. This would be Wednesday morning.
The Hrrr model shows a thunderstorm complex tracking through southwest Illinois and southeast Missouri. Moving south southeast.
If it shifts slightly west, then much of our region will remain dry.
As I have mentioned over the past several weeks, MCS systems are extremely tricky to forecast. We saw that this past weekend. Even within the last 12 hours, they can be difficult to forecast.
Hopefully, some of you receive some much needed rain.
The pattern will remain quite active into next week.
Another MCS system is forecast to track from northern and central Illinois Wednesday night/Thursday morning. That one will likely track southeast into Kentucky. How far east it tracks, however, is in question. It is possible that it stays mostly out of my forecast counties. I will need to monitor trends.
The SPC has a level one/marginal (dark green) risk of severe weather in our region Thursday. This may be too far west, but watching it closely.
Here is the FV3 model showing the Thursday morning storm complex. Most of the data tracks it just to our east northeast. This could bring clouds to the region. That would mean lower temperatures over portions of the region (where there are clouds).
Another one is possible Thursday night and Friday. That one will likely miss us to the east.
Several more MCS systems will develop Saturday into Monday. These are more likely to impact our region and I will be closely monitoring the data.
These MCS events can produce heavy rain, frequent lightning, gusty wind, and hail. Occasionally, they do produce severe weather. Monitor your Beau Dodson Weather app.
The next weather story is going to be the hot weather.
Double click images to enlarge them.
Thursday high temperatures
Friday high temperatures
Saturday high temperatures
Thursday and Friday will deliver widespread upper 90s to lower 100s. This will likely be the most widespread 100’s since 2012. Heat index values could top 110 degrees in some areas.
This is considered dangerous heat. Please know the symptoms of heat illness and stay safe.
It won’t be as hot Saturday through Monday. It will remain warm.
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
Today through April 18th: A couple of the Saturday afternoon and night thunderstorms could produce damaging wind and hail. The tornado risk is low, but not zero. Mainly over Missouri for the tornado risk. The line will weaken with time as it moves farther east.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
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Tornado Probability Outlook
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Large Hail Probability Outlook
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High wind Probability Outlook
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.
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This animation is the NAM 3K Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the HrrrModel.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
This animation is the FV3 Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 87 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 65 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.00″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 66 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.00″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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