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Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.
Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.
Today’s almanac numbers from a few select local cities.
The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.
The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.
It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.
Then, it shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).
It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.
It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.
The sunrise and sunset are also shown.
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Click the button below and it will take you to the Beau Dodson YouTube Channel.
48-hour forecast
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Thursday to Thursday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Isolated today and tomorrow (over mainly KY and TN). A higher risk of lightning Saturday night into Sunday night. We may have a thunderstorm complex move through the region. That would mean frequent lightning.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. Thunderstorms during the summer months can occasionally produce isolated pockets of downburst wind. I am closely monitoring late Saturday night into Sunday night for the potential of severe thunderstorms. Damaging wind would be the main concern.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. Slow moving heavy thunderstorms could briefly cause some ponding of water on roadways and in ditches.
4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? Possible. Heat index values could briefly approach or top 100 degrees Saturday and especially Sunday. Sunday will be highly depending on cloud cover. IF we have more clouds, then temperatures will be lower Sunday afternoon.
5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
6. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? No.
7. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? No.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines
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Thursday, June 22, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny west. Partly cloudy over our eastern counties. A slight chance of thunderstorms over mainly our eastern counties (Pennyrile area of western Kentucky).
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly after 12 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 82° to 84°
Southeast Missouri ~ 82° to 84°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 82° to 84°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 82° to 84°
Southern Illinois ~ 82° to 84°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 82° to 84°
Far western Kentucky ~ 80° to 84°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 78° to 82°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 78° to 82°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 82° to 84°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast 8 to 16 mph. Gusty, at times.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 84°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of early evening showers and thunderstorms over mainly KY/TN (far east).
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Before 10 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 64°
Southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 64°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 66°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 62° to 64°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 62° to 64°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 62° to 64°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:28 AM
Moonset: 11:47 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Friday, June 23, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny over much of the area. Some clouds over our far eastern counties.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 86° to 88°
Southeast Missouri ~ 88° to 90°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 88° to 90°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 86° to 88°
Southern Illinois ~ 86° to 88°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 86° to 88°
Far western Kentucky ~ 84° to 88°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 83° to 86°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 83° to 86°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 84° to 88°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 90°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 64°
Southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 64°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 66°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 62° to 64°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 62° to 64°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 62° to 64°
Winds will be from this direction: Variable wind direction 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:28 AM
Moonset:
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Saturday, June 24, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Hot.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 90° to 94°
Southeast Missouri ~ 90° to 94°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 90° to 94°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 90° to 94°
Southern Illinois ~ 90° to 94°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 90° to 94°
Far western Kentucky ~ 90° to 94°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 90° to 94°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 90° to 94°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90° to 94°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 90° to 94°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of late night showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps numerous far north. Scattered farther south. I will be watching a potential thunderstorm complex moving southward through MO/IL (late at night).
Timing of the precipitation: After 12 AM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 72°
Southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 72°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 68° to 72°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 68° to 72°
Southern Illinois ~ 68° to 72°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 68° to 72°
Far western Kentucky ~ 68° to 72°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 68° to 72°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 68° to 72°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 68° to 72°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy rain. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 11:26 AM
Moonset: 12:13 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Sunday, June 25, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? Medium Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will be HIGHLY dependent on cloud cover. If we have more clouds then highs will likely remain in the 80s over those areas.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 90° to 94°
Southeast Missouri ~ 90° to 94°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 90° to 94°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 90° to 94°
Southern Illinois ~ 90° to 94°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 90° to 94°
Far western Kentucky ~ 90° to 94°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 90° to 94°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 90° to 94°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90° to 94°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 94° to 98°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Heavy rain. Lightning. Hail. Gusty winds near thunderstorms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updated forecasts. Storms will be possible in the region.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:36 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 72°
Southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 72°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 68° to 72°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 68° to 72°
Southern Illinois ~ 68° to 72°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 68° to 72°
Far western Kentucky ~ 68° to 72°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 68° to 72°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 68° to 72°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 68° to 72°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy rain. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updated forecasts.
Moonrise: 12:25 PM
Moonset: 12:36 AM
The phase of the moon: First Quarter
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- A nice day on tap for the region.
- Isolated thunderstorm risk today over KY/TN.
- Tracking a potential MCS (thunderstorm complex) Saturday night into Sunday night.
- Warm next week.
Weather advice:
Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
Don’t forget the sunscreen on this summer warm days!
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Forecast Discussion
Today’s Average Regional Forecast Numbers
Warm Weather. Weekend thunderstorm chances!
First, the updated drought monitor maps have been posted.
Here was last weeks.
Here is the updated one. Drought continues to expand.
Good day, everyone.
There were some heavy thunderstorms in the region yesterday. A few spots picked up heavy rain. The vast majority of the region remained dry.
Here are the radar estimated rainfall totals from the past seven days (ending yesterday morning). Some locations have exceeded 4.5″ in our local area. Others have had just enough rain to settle the dust.
Feast or famine, it seems. Typical for summer months. It is hard to get uniform rain totals in the summer.
It will be warm today. Nothing extreme. There will be a couple of showers and thunderstorms over our eastern counties. That would be the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky and perhaps northwest Tennessee. I have capped rain chances in the 10% to 20% range. Low-end rain chances.
The large upper level low, that has delivered scattered showers and thunderstorms to our region over the past several days, is slowly pushing away from the region.
This morning’s satellite shows a large MCS over Colorado and Kansas. Remember, MCS’s are responsible for most of our summer’s rainfall totals.
MCS’s are thunderstorm complexes. We may have an MCS move into our region Saturday night (late) into Sunday/Sunday night. The timing and exact track will need to be determined.
Tomorrow and Saturday will be quite warm. Saturday will be hot. Highs in the 80s and 90s.
Saturday will be a bit more humid/muggy than today and tomorrow. Heat index values will pop into the 90s. Perhaps remaining just below 100 degrees.
Sunday’s high temperatures will be highly dependent on cloud cover. If the thunderstorm complex misses our local area, then highs will pop well into the 90s with heat index values of 98 to 104 degrees.
If we do have clouds, then shave several degrees off the high temperatures.
Our best chance of showers and thunderstorms will arrive with a cold front late Saturday night into Sunday evening. This is when one or two thunderstorm complexes are forecast form over Missouri and Illinois. These complexes will track southeast into our region.
The exact track of these systems remains a bit uncertain. Typically, MCS’s are notoriously difficult to forecast more than 12 to 24 hours in advance.
We can forecast the potential of an MCS (thunderstorm complex). We can’t nail down the exact track.
MCS’s can produce heavy rain, frequent lightning, and damaging wind gusts.
If the MCS is weakening, then the threat of severe weather will be low. If the MCS pushes through the region during the afternoon/evening, then the risk of severe weather increases.
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined our region for a risk of severe weather Sunday. Here is that current graphic. This will likely be adjusted as confidence in the exact path and timing increases. Thus, monitor your Beau Dodson Weather app.
The WPC has this for rainfall totals this weekend. Again, this is HIGHLY dependent on the track of any thunderstorm complexes.
Also, these complexes can produce MUCH higher rainfall totals in some areas. Rain totals could exceed three inches in the heavier thunderstorms. Similar to our last event.
Keep that in mind. This is their broadbrushed forecast. We will see how it goes. We need this rain!
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
Today through April 18th: A couple of the Saturday afternoon and night thunderstorms could produce damaging wind and hail. The tornado risk is low, but not zero. Mainly over Missouri for the tornado risk. The line will weaken with time as it moves farther east.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
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Tornado Probability Outlook
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Large Hail Probability Outlook
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High wind Probability Outlook
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.
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This animation is the NAM 3K Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the Hrrr Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 87 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 65 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.00″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 66 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.00″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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