June 15, 2023: Monitoring weekend thunderstorm chances. Warm.

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Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

Today’s almanac numbers from a few select local cities.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

Then, it shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

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48-hour forecast

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Thursday to Thursday

1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. The highest risk of lightning will be Sunday and Sunday night. Isolated lightning is possible through next Wednesday.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Possible. Some of the Sunday thunderstorms will likely be severe with damaging wind and hail. There is a low-end tornado risk, as well. Thunderstorms, on other days, could also be locally intense with strong wind gusts. I will need to monitor the severe weather risk next week.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. If thunderstorms train over the same areas, then pockets of flash flooding can develop. Use caution during heavy slow moving thunderstorms.

4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? Not at this time.

5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.

6. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? No.

7. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? No.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines

Thursday, June 15, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A slight chance of a thunderstorms (mainly over the southern portions of the Missouri Bootheel and northwest Tennessee). The rest of the area should remain dry..
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: During the afternoon hours
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 88° to 92°
Southeast Missouri ~ 88° to 92°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 88° to 92°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 88° to 92°
Southern Illinois ~ 88° to 92°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 88° to 92°
Far western Kentucky ~ 88° to 92°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 88° to 92°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 88° to 92°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 88° to 92°
Winds will be from this direction: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 92°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways. Isolated lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 11. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:18 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of an evening thunderstorm over the Missouri Bootheel and northwest Tennessee.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Before 10 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 62°
Southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 64°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 66°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 62° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 62° to 65°
Far western Kentucky ~ 63° to 66°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 63° to 66°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 63° to 66°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 64° to 66°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:31 AM
Moonset: 6:14 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

Friday, June 16, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Most likely dry.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 88° to 92°
Southeast Missouri ~ 88° to 92°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 88° to 92°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 88° to 92°
Southern Illinois ~ 88° to 92°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 88° to 92°
Far western Kentucky ~ 88° to 92°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 88° to 92°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 88° to 92°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 88° to 92°
Winds will be from this direction: West southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 92°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 11. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:18 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of a thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Before 10 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 56° to 58°
Southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 63° to 66°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 58° to 60°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 62° to 65°
Far western Kentucky ~ 63° to 66°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 63° to 66°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 63° to 66°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 64° to 66°
Winds will be from this direction: East 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A small chance of wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:07 AM
Moonset: 7:19 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

Saturday, June 17, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Most likely dry.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 88° to 92°
Southeast Missouri ~ 88° to 92°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 88° to 92°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 88° to 92°
Southern Illinois ~ 88° to 92°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 88° to 92°
Far western Kentucky ~ 88° to 92°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 88° to 92°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 88° to 92°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 88° to 92°
Winds will be from this direction: East 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 92°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 11. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:18 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time. More likely late at night.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 62°
Southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 66°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 62° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 61° to 65°
Far western Kentucky ~ 64° to 66°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 64° to 66°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 64° to 66°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A small chance of wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:48 AM
Moonset: 8:21 PM
The phase of the moon: New

Sunday, June 18, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Some could be heavy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 84° to 88°
Southeast Missouri ~ 84° to 88°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 84° to 88°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 84° to 88°
Southern Illinois ~ 84° to 88°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 84° to 88°
Far western Kentucky ~ 84° to 88°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 84° to 88°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 84° to 88°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 84° to 88°
Winds will be from this direction: South 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Locally heavy rain. Gusty wind. Frequent lightning, Hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 4. Moderate (higher if the sun comes out)
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:19 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Some could be heavy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 64°
Southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 64°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 66°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 62° to 64°
Southern Illinois ~ 62° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 64° to 66°
Far western Kentucky ~ 64° to 66°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 64° to 66°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 64° to 66°
Winds will be from this direction: South 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Locally heavy rain. Gusty wind. Frequent lightning, Hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 5:35 AM
Moonset: 9:16 PM
The phase of the moon: New

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Weather Highlights

1. Warm weather.
2. Yesterday’s thunderstorms.
3. Rain chances ramp up late Saturday night into Sunday night.
4. Monitoring rain chances next week.

Weather advice:

Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.

Don’t forget the sunscreen on this summer warm days!

Forecast Discussion

Today’s Forecast Numbers

Weekend thunderstorm chances!

Well, it has been dry. How dry? Check out this stat from Illinois.

Some locations received generous rain totals Wednesday. Mainly from Butler County, Missouri into the Missouri Bootheel and then along the Kentucky/Tennessee State line.

These showers and thunderstorms were quite intense, at times. Rain totals of a trace to well over an inch feel in some locations. There were some gusty winds and small hail reports, as well.

Intense thunderstorms raked the southlands. A rare June moderate risk for severe thunderstorms was issued for portions of Arkansas into Georgia.

There were numerous reports of golf ball to softball size hail, 75+ mph winds, and some large tornadoes.

Some Twitter images

Thankfully, that system missed our region to the south. Otherwise, we would have been under the gun for severe thunderstorms.

Remember, at one time that system was modeled to pass over our region. It kept trending south.

It will be warm today. A bit humid, but not awful considering it is June. Our dew points have been decent over the past few weeks.

Dew point controls how muggy it feels outside.

There is a tiny chance of a thunderstorm today through Saturday. The bulk of the region will remain dry.

It will be warm tomorrow and Saturday, as well.

The weather begins to change Saturday night into Sunday night.

A large disturbance will move into our region from the west. This disturbance will produce widespread showers and thunderstorms.

Some of the storms could be severe weather with locally very heavy rain, damaging wind, and hail. Lightning, of course. I can’t rule out a tornado (depending on what time the system passes through the region).

The NAM model (see the future-cast radars below) brings the system into the region late Saturday night into early Sunday morning.

Other data brings the storms into the region later Sunday.

If the storms come through during peak heating, then they will be more intense. We will need to monitor the timing of the system.

A risk of severe weather has been outlined by the Storm Prediction Center for Sunday. Here is their day four outlook. This will be fine tuned over the coming days. Expect shifts in the outlook region or an expansion.

Rain totals Saturday night into Sunday night will vary GREATLY. Another typical warm season rain event. Rain totals will likely range from less than 0.25″ to more then two inches.

Slow moving thunderstorms can produce copious amounts of rain.

Confidence in the Monday through Thursday forecast (next week) is low.

There are two camps of thinking. One is that an upper level low will become stationary over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This will keep shower and thunderstorm chances in our region.

The other camp is that system pulls away from the region. That would leave us with a daily small chance of showers and thunderstorms.

We need the rain. Chances for showers and thunderstorms would be higher if the upper level low stalls over the region.

I will need to monitor trends in the guidance.

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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.

Today through April 18th: A couple of the Saturday afternoon and night thunderstorms could produce damaging wind and hail. The tornado risk is low, but not zero. Mainly over Missouri for the tornado risk. The line will weaken with time as it moves farther east.

Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables. Click here.

Tornado Probability Outlook

Large Hail Probability Outlook

High wind Probability Outlook

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

What am I looking at?

You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.

This animation is the NAM Model.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

This animation is the GFS model

This animation is the EC Model.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 87 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 65 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.00″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 88 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 66 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.00″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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