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Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.
Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.
Today’s almanac numbers from a few select local cities.
The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.
The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.
It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.
Then, it shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).
It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.
It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.
The sunrise and sunset are also shown.
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48-hour forecast
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Thursday to Thursday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Scattered. Lightning is likely Sunday and Sunday night. Another chance Wednesday and Thursday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Possible. A few storms could produce strong and gusty winds. I can’t rule out isolated downburst winds that could cause tree limb and power line damage. Often times, during the summer months, storms collapse rapidly. This produces strong/high wind gusts. Isolated severe weather reports are possible today and again Sunday.
Severe weather may be possible towards the middle of next week, as well.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Not at this time. Thunderstorms can briefly produce very heavy downpours. That could briefly cause ponding of water on roadways.
4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? Not at this time. The long range may bring some higher heat index values.
5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
6. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? No.
7. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? No.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines
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Thursday, June 8, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cooler. The front will push south of the region this morning. Dew points (mugginess) will be a bit higher over the Missouri Bootheel and northwest Tennessee this morning. With time, those higher dew points will push southward, as well. The rest of the area will feel nice today. Not humid. Dry air.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 82° to 84°
Southeast Missouri ~ 82° to 84°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 82° to 85°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 82° to 84°
Southern Illinois ~ 82° to 85°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 82° to 85°
Far western Kentucky ~ 82° to 84°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80° to 84°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80° to 82°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 82° to 84°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 82°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:15 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 52°
Southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 54°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 54° to 56°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 48° to 52°
Southern Illinois ~ 52° to 54°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 52° to 54°
Far western Kentucky ~ 52° to 55°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 52° to 55°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 52° to 54°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 54° to 58°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast 5 1o 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 54°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:08 AM
Moonset: 10:14 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Friday, June 9, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 82° to 84°
Southeast Missouri ~ 82° to 84°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 82° to 85°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 82° to 84°
Southern Illinois ~ 82° to 85°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 82° to 85°
Far western Kentucky ~ 82° to 84°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80° to 84°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80° to 82°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 82° to 84°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 82°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:15 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 54°
Southeast Missouri ~ 53° to 56°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 54° to 58°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 52° to 54°
Southern Illinois ~ 53° to 56°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 53° to 56°
Far western Kentucky ~ 54° to 58°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 54° to 58°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 52° to 55°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 54° to 58°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast 5 1o 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:45 AM
Moonset: 11:27AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Saturday, June 10, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 84° to 88°
Southeast Missouri ~ 84° to 88°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 86° to 88°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 84° to 88°
Southern Illinois ~ 86° to 88°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 86° to 88°
Far western Kentucky ~ 86° to 88°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 86° to 88°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 86° to 88°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 86° to 88°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest 7 to 14 mph. Gusts to 18 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 11. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:16 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of late night thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: After 3 AM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 62°
Southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 64°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 66°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 62° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 62° to 65°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 62° to 65°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60° to 65°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 63° to 66°
Winds will be from this direction: South 7 to 14 mph. Gusts to 18 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars late at night
Moonrise: 1:15 AM
Moonset: 12:39 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Sunday, June 11, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 84°
Southeast Missouri ~ 82° to 85°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 83° to 86°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80° to 84°
Southern Illinois ~ 82° to 84°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 82° to 84°
Far western Kentucky ~ 83° to 86°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 82° to 85°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 82° to 84°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 83° to 86°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty winds near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B, and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 11. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:16 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time, but more likely before 2 AM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 58°
Southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 58°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 54° to 58°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 54° to 58°
Southern Illinois ~ 54° to 58°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 54° to 58°
Far western Kentucky ~ 54° to 58°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 54° to 58°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 54° to 58°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 54° to 58°
Winds will be from this direction: Becoming west northwest and eventually north 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars late at night
Moonrise: 1:15 AM
Moonset: 12:39 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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- Beautiful weather today into Saturday. Enjoy it.
- Thunderstorms likely Sunday and Sunday night.
- Dry conditions Monday and Tuesday.
- Monitoring thunderstorm chances next week. Severe weather?
Weather advice:
Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
Don’t forget the sunscreen on this summer warm days!
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Forecast Discussion
Mild weather. Low dew points into Saturday. Nice weather.
Additional rain chances.
We still need rain.
Light rain fell across a portion of the region yesterday. Rain totals ranged from 0.00″ to 0.25″. The Weather Observatory measured 0.06″ of rain. Not much. That will evaporate today.
The good news is that I continue to monitor a pattern shift mid to late June into July. The July analogs are very wet.
We have another chance of widespread showers and thunderstorms in the region this coming Sunday. I am hopeful we have additional storm chances towards the middle of next week.
Some of the thunderstorms could be locally heavy Sunday. Rain totals will vary, as they usually do during the summer months.
Generally, rain totals of 0.60″ to 1.20″ can be expected. Then, pockets of 1.2 to 2.0″ are likely. The higher totals will occur where thunderstorms repeatedly train over the same area.
As always, during the summer months, you can have higher totals in thunderstorms. Even several inches, if the storms are slow moving. Keep that in mind. Again, rain totals will vary.
Fingers crossed for this rain event. We need a soaking rain. We don’t need all the rain at once, of course.
Our best chance of rain, through next Tuesday, will be Sunday and Sunday night.
Forecast Discussion
A backdoor cold front swept across the region yesterday and last night. This brought cooler temperatures to the region. Lower dew points, as well.
This mornings dew points, over most of the region, are nice. Low for June. The exception can be seen on the map below.
You can see the cold front has moved through the region from north/northeast to south/southwest. Lowest dew points are over Illinois and Kentucky.
Those nice dew points will continue to spread southwest.
Dew point map from 7 am this morning. Nice over most of the region. Somewhat more humid over the Missouri Bootheel. Those higher dew points will filter southward over the coming hours.
There could still be a shower this morning over southeast Missouri, before the front finally sags farther south.
Otherwise, a nice day is on tap for the region.
Tonight will be cool and dry. A nice night to open your windows.
Tomorrow will be nice, as well.
Slightly warmer by Saturday.
Let’s compare dew point maps over the coming week.
Again, today’s dew points will be low/nice.
Dew points will be higher by this Sunday. It will feel humid with a chance of thunderstorms.
Then, towards the middle of next week, higher dew points should push into the region. This may set the stage for thunderstorms. Muggy air (if the front remains just to our north).
Our next weather system arrives Sunday and Sunday night. Expect widespread showers and thunderstorms. Some locally heavy rain will be possible, as mentioned above.
A few of the storms could produce downburst winds, frequent lightning, and dime size hail. I can’t rule out an isolated severe thunderstorm. Widespread severe weather appears unlikely. I will send out messages, if necessary.
Another system approaches the central United States towards the middle of next week. There is disagreement in the data as to how far north or south to push this series of systems.
There is a decent chance of thunderstorms next week somewhere in the region. Severe thunderstorms can’t be ruled out.
For now, I am monitoring trends in the guidance. Stay tuned.
The concern would most likely center around the Wednesday into Friday time-frame. We need this rain. We don’t need the severe weather threats. We will take what we can get.
I will be monitoring it.
If you have any questions about the graphics then email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Double click items to make them larger.
Our July analogs are wet. That could be good news.
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
Today through April 18th: A couple of the Saturday afternoon and night thunderstorms could produce damaging wind and hail. The tornado risk is low, but not zero. Mainly over Missouri for the tornado risk. The line will weaken with time as it moves farther east.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
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Tornado Probability Outlook
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Large Hail Probability Outlook
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High wind Probability Outlook
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.
This animation is the SPC WRFModel.
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This animation is the Hrrr Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
This animation is the GFS Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 81 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 60 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.00″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 62 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.00″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
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ZoomRadar
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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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