Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region.  Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.  Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

You will see smoke in the sky today and tomorrow.  You may even smell it.  This is from the Canadian wildfires.

Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities).  Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

Today’s almanac numbers from a few select local cities.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what  year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

Then, it shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today.  Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.

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48-hour forecast

Monday, June 5, 2023
Confidence in the forecast?  High Confidence  
Monday Forecast:  Haze and smoke from the Canadian wildfires.  Warm.  A very slight chance of an isolated afternoon storm.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 5%
Southeast Missouri ~ 5%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 5%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 5%
Southern Illinois ~ 5%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 5%
Far western Kentucky ~ 5%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 5%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 5%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 5%
Coverage of precipitation: None for most areas
Timing of the precipitation:  After 12 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 90° to 94°
Southeast Missouri ~ 90° to 94°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 90° to 94°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 90° to 94°
Southern Illinois ~ 90° to 94°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 90° to 94°
Far western Kentucky ~ 90° to 94°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 90° to 94°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 90° to 94°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90° to 94°
Winds will be from this direction:  North northeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 90° to 92°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset:  8:13 PM
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Monday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Smoke from the Canadian wildfires.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated/ending
Timing of the precipitation: Before 9 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 58°
Southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 58°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 54° to 58°
Southern Illinois ~ 53° to 56°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 56° to 58°
Far western Kentucky ~ 58° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60° to 62°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise:   10:28 PM
Moonset:  6:36 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous

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Tuesday, June 6, 2023
Confidence in the forecast?  High Confidence  
Tuesday Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  There may be smoke and haze from the Canadian wildfires.  Warm.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 86° to 90°
Southeast Missouri ~ 86° to 90°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 86° to 90°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 86° to 90°
Southern Illinois ~ 86° to 90°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 86° to 90°
Far western Kentucky ~ 86° to 90°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 86° to 90°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 86° to 88°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 86° to 90°
Winds will be from this direction:  North northeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset:  8:13 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast:  Mostly clear.  There may still be some smoke and haze from the Canadian wildfires.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
Southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60° to 64°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 60° to 64°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60° to 64°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60° to 64°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast 5 1o 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise:   11:23 PM
Moonset:  7:43 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous

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Wednesday, June 7, 2023
Confidence in the forecast?  High Confidence  
Wednesday Forecast:  Partly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 84° to 88°
Southeast Missouri ~ 84° to 88°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 84° to 88°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 82° to 84°
Southern Illinois ~ 82° to 85°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 82° to 85°
Far western Kentucky ~ 82° to 85°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80° to 84°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80° to 82°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 82° to 85°
Winds will be from this direction:  West northwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset:  8:12 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy. A chance of mainly evening showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly before 11 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 56°
Southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 58°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 53° to 56°
Southern Illinois ~ 54° to 58°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 56° to 60°
Far western Kentucky ~ 60° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 54° to 58°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60° to 64°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast 5 1o 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise:
Moonset:  8:57 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous

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Forecast Discussion

Another nice day across the region.  Warm.

RAIN CHANCES

Okay, let’s talk about our rain chances.

We have a cold front that will slide into the region Wednesday and Wednesday night.  It will be another backdoor cold front coming in from the northeast and moving southwest.

This front will spark scattered showers and thunderstorms.  A few of the storms will produce locally heavy rain and gusty wind.  Lightning, of course.

Once again, not everyone will experience rain from this system.  Rainfall totals will vary from 0.00″ to 0.50″.  Locally higher in the stronger thunderstorms.

The overall severe weather threat will be minimal.

Dry conditions Thursday into Friday night.

There is a small chance of showers and thunderstorms Saturday.  A better chance arrives Saturday night into Sunday night.  A stronger cold front will work its way across the region.

Expect our highest thunderstorms chances with this cold front.  A few of the thunderstorms could be intense, as well.  Rain totals will vary based on thunderstorms intensity.  Some areas may miss out, again.

If you want rain, then monitor Wednesday and late in the weekend.

I will keep an eye on Monday, as well.  The front may slide far enough east to bring an end to precipitation chances by Monday.

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Forecast Discussion

We are going to have hazy sky conditions over the next 48 hours.

This is in response to large wildfires in Canada.  The smoke is moving into our region from the northeast.  Moving south  southwest.

Some of the smoke will be thick enough to lower visibility.  You may even be able to smell the smoke.

This is the second or third time this year that we have had smoke in the air, because of wildfires.

You can see the movement of the smoke in this computer model simulation.

Double click on the images to enlarge them.

Our second weather story continues to be the drought.

A few locations receive a little rain Sunday afternoon and evening.  Thunderstorms formed over the area.  Most of the region remained dry.  Coverage was a bit higher over portions of southwest Illinois and southeast Missouri.  Otherwise, the rest of the region received very little rainfall.

Here is the latest drought monitor map.  The drought is worse across portions of the central United States.  It has been slowly oozing into our region.

We do have some yellow over our local counties.  That means abnormally dry conditions.  You already know this.

The yellow zone is considered abnormally dry (D0).  D1 would be drought.  The next stage is drought.

Double click images to make them larger.

Here is the 30 day precipitation departure map.  You can see a lot of yellow.

The 60 day map is even more impressive.  The colors represent the departures from normal in the rainfall department.

Let’s take a look at some updated maps.

Here are the 30 day observations for temperature departures.

The yellow and orange zone represent warmer than usual.

The second map is for precipitation.  A LARGE portion of the USA has been drier than normal.

Here is the 7-day evapotranspiration rate.  How fast are the soils drying out?

The second map is the departure of normal for the evapotranspiration rate.

This next map shows you the percent of normal precipitation forecast.

EPS is one model.  GEFS is the American ensemble model.  GFS is an American model.  Three different model solutions.

The day 1 through 5 percent of normal precipitation maps are drier than normal.  Not the best news.

We will have some rain chances Wednesday along an incoming cold front.

The second row is the day 6 through 10 time period.  We start to see a bit more green during this time frame.   There is some hope of rain this coming weekend and next week.

The GEFS model is most bullish with above average precipitation.  The other two models show green, as well.

The day 11 through 15 time-period is mixed on its ideas for precipitation.  The EPS is drier than average.  Not good news on that model.  However, the GEFS/GFS indicates the potential for near normal to above average precipitation.

There have been mixed signals in the day 11 through 15 time-frame.  At times, the models have been wetter than normal.  Then, the flip back to dry.  This simply means that we need to monitor for better continuity in the model solution outcomes.

For now, I have a more active pattern developing in the mid to late June time-frame.  I have been saying this for the past few months.  Let’s hope the forecast verifies.  Otherwise, we are going to have problems.  Drought conditions will rapidly worsen.  We just need to get some rain in here.

Let’s hope the models showing normal to above normal precipitation verify.

The bottom row of graphics show you how the models have changed over the past few runs.  Models run four times each day.

The overall trend, has been a bit wetter.  If you have any questions about these graphics then email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

Here is the latest temperature outlook from the EPS model, GEFS model, and GFS model.

Overall, days 1 through 15 are trending cooler than average.

If you have any questions about these graphics then email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

As we look at temperatures, over the coming 15 days, they aren’t awful.  Numerous days with 80s.  Some days with 90s.

I chose Paducah as a central location.  This would work for any given city in the area.

Let’s look at the temperature matrix

Each vertical row represents one day.  The row of 90s on the far left represents today.  Each row is one model run.  They run the model over and over again.  The general idea is if the numbers match, then there is a high conditions in the final high temperature outcome.

For example, there is high confidence that today will be in the low 90s.  See all the lower 90s on the far left row?

The far right row represents June 18th.

There are some signals in the long range of a round of higher temperatures.  You can see that around June 15th into the 18th.  That continues for a bit after that (in some other data).  We will watch that time-frame for a heat burst.

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Today through April 18th:  A couple of the Saturday afternoon and night thunderstorms could produce damaging wind and hail.  The tornado risk is low, but not zero.  Mainly over Missouri for the tornado risk.  The line will weaken with time as it moves farther east.

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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables.  Click here.

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Tornado Probability Outlook

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Large Hail Probability Outlook

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High wind Probability Outlook

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 81 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 60 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.00″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 81 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 62 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.00″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool.   Click here.

College of DuPage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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