June 4, 2023: Warm and mostly dry.

Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section

Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

Consider giving www.weathertalk.com as a gift. A gift that keeps on giving.

They will receive
.

1. Daily forecasts (hand typed) sent to the Beau Dodson Weather app.

2. Daily short and long range outlooks on the weather blog.

3. The Daily weather blog contains all the weather information you could ever want or need!

4. Tornado and severe thunderstorm alerts sent directly to your cell phone via the Beau Dodson Weather app.

5. Ice storm alerts. Winter storm alerts.

6. Ohio and Missouri Valley videos.

7. Long range forecast videos and more!
.

Here is how to subscribe.

Visit the www.weathertalk.com website and make an account.

Then, add in their cell phone number(s), the county they live in, and what counties they would like to receive alerts for.

You can then pick and choose what products you want them to receive on your app.

Then, have them download the Beau Dodson Weather app from the app store. It is under Weather Talk.

Apple users: Beau Dodson Weather App

https://wtalk.co/9EZYG8A8

Android users: Beau Dodson Weather App

https://wtalk.co/ZEWYU8ME

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

Today’s almanac numbers from a few select local cities.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

Then, it shows you the departures (how many degrees above or below average temperatures will be).

It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset is also shown.

If you have not subscribed to my YouTube Channel then click on this link and it will take you to my videos.

Click the button below and it will take you to the Beau Dodson YouTube Channel.

48-hour forecast

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

.

Sunday to Sunday

1. Is lightning in the forecast? Isolated to scattered. A chance of isolated lightning today. this evening, and Monday. I will keep an eye on next Saturday and Sunday.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Not at this time. Monitor updates.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Not at this time.

4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? Not at this time.

5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.

6. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? No.

7. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? No.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines

Sunday, June 4, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Warm. An isolated thunderstorm will be possible (mainly this afternoon and evening).
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly after 12 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 90° to 94°
Southeast Missouri ~ 90° to 94°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 90° to 94°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 90° to 94°
Southern Illinois ~ 90° to 94°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 90° to 94°
Far western Kentucky ~ 90° to 94°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 90° to 94°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 90° to 94°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90° to 94°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 90° to 94°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset: 8:12 PM
.

Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of evening thunderstorms. Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Before 9 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 65°
Southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 65°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 62° to 65°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~62° to 65°
Southern Illinois ~ 62° to 65°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 62° to 65°
Far western Kentucky ~ 62° to 65°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 62° to 65°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 65°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 62° to 65°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 9:23 PM
Moonset: 5:39 AM
The phase of the moon: Full

Monday, June 5, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Warm. A slight chance of thunderstorms. Mainly during the afternoon and evening.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly after 12 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 90° to 94°
Southeast Missouri ~ 90° to 94°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 90° to 94°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 90° to 94°
Southern Illinois ~ 90° to 94°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 90° to 94°
Far western Kentucky ~ 90° to 94°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 90° to 94°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 90° to 94°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90° to 94°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 90° to 92°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset: 8:13 PM
.

Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of evening thunderstorms. Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated/ending
Timing of the precipitation: Before 9 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 64°
Southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 64°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60° to 64°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 58° to 64°
Southern Illinois ~ 58° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 60° to 64°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60° to 64°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 58° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60° to 64°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 10:28 PM
Moonset: 6:36 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

Tuesday, June 6, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Quite warm.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 86° to 90°
Southeast Missouri ~ 86° to 90°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 86° to 90°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 86° to 90°
Southern Illinois ~ 86° to 90°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 86° to 90°
Far western Kentucky ~ 86° to 90°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 86° to 90°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 86° to 88°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 86° to 90°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset: 8:13 PM
.

Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 65°
Southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 65°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 62° to 65°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 62° to 65°
Southern Illinois ~ 62° to 65°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 62° to 65°
Far western Kentucky ~ 62° to 65°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 62° to 65°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 65°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 62° to 65°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast 5 1o 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:23 PM
Moonset: 7:43 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Weather Highlights

1. Warm weather. Mostly dry.
2. Drought conditions worsening.
3. Cooler mid to late week.
4. Watching for a larger pattern shift mid to late month.

Weather advice:

Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.

Don’t forget the sunscreen on this summer warm days!

Forecast Discussion

Nice weather continues (as we search for rain).

The primary weather story continues to be the drier than average weather. Many areas need rain. Some worse than others.

The Drought Monitor maps finally have abnormally dry conditions painted across much of our region. This does not come as a surprise to farmers and gardeners.

Double click image to enlarge it.

The brown and orange colors in central Missouri represent a more intense drought situation. That is what we are hoping does not spread over the coming weeks.

You can also seen Nebraska into Oklahoma are in extreme and exceptional drought.

The yellow zone is considered abnormally dry (D0). D1 would be drought. The next stage is drought.

Obviously. we need rain. For the most part, the rain has shut down.

We do have low-end chances of isolated showers and thunderstorms today and Monday. Then, dry conditions Tuesday through Friday.

Rainfall totals will vary across the region from 0.00 to 0.40″. Any thunderstorms would be slow moving and briefing drop heavy rain. Isolated lightning. The vast majority of the region will remain dry.

I am watching Saturday into next Monday for additional shower and thunderstorm chances.

Some of the data indicates a decent shot at precipitation early next week. We can only hope.

The EC model ensembles are painting a lot of brown over the coming seven to fourteen days. That represents below average precipitation.

This runs from now through June 18th. Green would be favorable for above average rainfall. Brown represents below average rainfall.

Hopefully, even though the model is painting drier than normal, we can get some rain in here.

As we look at temperatures, over the coming 15 days, they aren’t awful. Numerous days with 80s. Some days with 90s.

I chose Paducah as a central location. This would work for any given city in the area.

Let’s look at the temperature matrix

Each vertical row represents one day. The row of 90s on the far left represents today. Each row is one model run. They run the model over and over again. The general idea is if the numbers match, then there is a high conditions in the final high temperature outcome.

For example, there is high confidence that today will be in the low 90s. See all the lower 90s on the far left row?

The far right row represents June 18th.

There are some signals in the long range of a round of higher temperatures. You can see that around June 15th into the 18th. That continues for a bit after that (in some other data). We will watch that time-frame for a heat burst.

We will have a cold front move through the region Wednesday. That will bring cooler air into the area Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. Mostly 80s vs 90s.

Dew points, which control how muggy it feels, will be decent this coming week. Nothing too extreme. That will make it feel nicer outside vs our normal mugginess of summer.

All in all, if you like sunshine and warm temperatures, then this is a GREAT forecast for you.

If you need rain, then this is not the best forecast.

I will keep watching the data and trends.

I continue to forecast the pattern to become a bit more active mid to late June. Hopefully, that then carries into July, August, and September.

We have to get some rain in here soon or we are in big trouble. We do not want this pattern to continue much longer. Otherwise, farmers and gardeners are going to lose crops.

We may have some hazy conditions from the smoke moving in from the northeast. This smoke is coming out of Canada. The Canadian wildfires are responsible for the smoke.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.

Today through April 18th: A couple of the Saturday afternoon and night thunderstorms could produce damaging wind and hail. The tornado risk is low, but not zero. Mainly over Missouri for the tornado risk. The line will weaken with time as it moves farther east.

Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables. Click here.

Tornado Probability Outlook

Large Hail Probability Outlook

High wind Probability Outlook

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
.

48-hour precipitation outlook.
..

_______________________________________

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

What am I looking at?

You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.

This animation is the SPC WRF Model.

This animation is the Hrrr Model.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

This animation is the NAM 3K Model.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 81 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 60 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.00″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 81 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 62 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.00″
.

Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk

Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.

The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.

Apple users click here

Android users click here

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.