Friday, May 19, 2023: Thunderstorm chances.

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Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

Today’s almanac numbers from a few select local cities.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

Then, it shows you the departures (how many degrees above or below average temperatures will be).

It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset is also shown.

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48-hour forecast

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Friday to Friday

1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. There is a chance of lightning today and tonight. I will monitor next Wednesday and Thursday.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Possible. There is a low risk of severe weather this afternoon and tonight. Damaging wind and hail would be the main concern. Overall, the risk appears to be limited to southeast Missouri, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.

4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.

5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.

6. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? No.

7. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? No.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines

Friday, May 19, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time, but more likely after 12 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 78° to 82°
Southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 82°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80° to 84°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 78° to 82°
Southern Illinois ~ 78° to 82°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80° to 82°
Far western Kentucky ~ 80° to 84°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80° to 84°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80° to 82°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80° to 84°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 84°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. A few storms could produce strong wind gusts and nickle size hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 5:43 AM
Sunset: 8:01 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly the first half of the night
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 53° to 56°
Southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 58°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 56° to 60°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 54° to 58°
Southern Illinois ~ 54° to 58°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 56° to 58°
Far western Kentucky ~ 56° to 60°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 56° to 60°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 56° to 60°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 56° to 60°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. A few storms could produce strong wind gusts and nickle size hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 5:31 AM
Moonset: 8:26 PM
The phase of the moon: New

Saturday, May 20, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Some morning clouds. A chance of a few remaining showers over Kentucky and Tennessee. Most likely dry over Missouri/Illinois.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered during the morning.
Timing of the precipitation: Before 12 pm
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 72°
Southeast Missouri ~ 72° to 74°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 72° to 75°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70° to 72°
Southern Illinois ~ 72° to 74°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 72° to 74°
Far western Kentucky ~ 72° to 74°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 72° to 74°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70° to 72°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 73° to 75°
Winds will be from this direction: North 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 5:43 AM
Sunset: 8:01 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cooler. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 55°
Southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 55°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 50° to 55°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 50° to 55°
Southern Illinois ~ 50° to 55°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 50° to 55°
Far western Kentucky ~ 50° to 55°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 50° to 55°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 50° to 55°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 50° to 55°
Winds will be from this direction: North 8 to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 54°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:09 AM
Moonset: 9:31 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

Sunday, May 21, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 74° to 78°
Southeast Missouri ~ 74° to 78°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 74° to 78°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 74° to 78°
Southern Illinois ~ 74° to 78°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 74° to 78°
Far western Kentucky ~ 74° to 78°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 74° to 78°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 74° to 78°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 74° to 78°
Winds will be from this direction: North 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 5:42 AM
Sunset: 8:02 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 53° to 56°
Southeast Missouri ~ 53° to 56°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 53° to 56°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 53° to 56°
Southern Illinois ~ 53° to 56°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 53° to 56°
Far western Kentucky ~ 53° to 56°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 53° to 56°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 53° to 56°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 53° to 56°
Winds will be from this direction: North 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 53° to 56°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:52 AM
Moonset: 10:31 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

Monday, May 22, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 75° to 80°
Southeast Missouri ~ 76° to 80°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 76° to 80°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 75° to 80°
Southern Illinois ~ 76° to 80°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 76° to 80°
Far western Kentucky ~ 76° to 80°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 76° to 80°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 76° to 80°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 76° to 80°
Winds will be from this direction: Northeast 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 5:42 AM
Sunset: 8:03 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 53° to 56°
Southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 58°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 56° to 60°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 53° to 56°
Southern Illinois ~ 54° to 58°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 55° to 60°
Far western Kentucky ~ 55° to 60°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 55° to 60°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 54° to 58°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 55° to 60°
Winds will be from this direction: Northeast 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 53° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:42 AM
Moonset: 11:24 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

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Weather Highlights

1. Shower and thunderstorm chances today and tonight.
2. A slight chance of Saturday morning showers over primarily Kentucky and Tennessee.
3. Dry Sunday through Wednesday.

Weather advice:

As we prepare for spring, let’s make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.

Forecast Discussion

Shower and thunderstorm chances ramp up today and tonight. Expect thickening clouds.

A cold front is approaching the region from the northwest. This front will produce showers and thunderstorms across our area. Peak rain chances will be this afternoon and tonight.

See the Beau Dodson Weather Radars at the bottom of the page.

A few of the storms could be locally intense, but widespread organized severe weather appears unlikely.

The primary concern will be damaging wind and perhaps a few reports of hail.

The Storm Prediction Center has portions of the Missouri Bootheel into and along the Kentucky/Tennessee border in a low-end level one marginal risk of severe weather Friday afternoon and evening.

Lightning will be a concern for outdoor activities. Some downpours, as well. I know there are some graduations in the region.

A few showers may linger into Saturday morning, but if we can get the front to push across the region Friday night, then that should shut down most of the rain. Clouds may linger into Saturday.

Rain totals are likely to range from 0.10″ to 0.40″. Locally higher in thunderstorms.

Dry conditions are anticipated Saturday night through Wednesday. Decent temperatures with a slow warming trend through the period. Dew points will remain in the comfortable zone. Not bad for late May!

NOAA has released the July through September precipitation outlook. They have out region in above average precipitation.

Double click images to enlarge them.

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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.

Today through April 18th: A couple of the Saturday afternoon and night thunderstorms could produce damaging wind and hail. The tornado risk is low, but not zero. Mainly over Missouri for the tornado risk. The line will weaken with time as it moves farther east.

Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables. Click here.

Tornado Probability Outlook

Large Hail Probability Outlook

High wind Probability Outlook

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

What am I looking at?

You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.

This animation is the SPC WRF Model.

This animation is the Hrrr Model.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 77 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 56 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.00″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 78 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 58 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.00″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Weather Prediction Center. Click here.