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Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.
Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.
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48-hour forecast
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Wednesday to Wednesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. There is a chance of lightning Friday into Friday night.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Possible. There is a low risk of severe weather Friday and Friday night. Damaging wind and hail would be the main concern. Overall, the risk appears to be limited to southeast Missouri, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Low risk. Slow moving thunderstorms this time of the year can produce heavy rain. Overall, the flash flood risk is low, but not zero. If thunderstorms were to train over the same areas, then some ponding of water if brief flash flooding could occur.
4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
6. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? No.
7. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? No.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines
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Wednesday, May 17, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Less humid.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 78° to 82°
Southeast Missouri ~ 78° to 82°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 78° to 82°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 78° to 82°
Southern Illinois ~ 78° to 82°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 78° to 82°
Far western Kentucky ~ 78° to 82°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 78° to 82°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 78° to 82°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 78° to 82°
Winds will be from this direction: North northwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 82°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:45 AM
Sunset: 7:59 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 54°
Southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 54°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 54° to 58°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 50° to 54°
Southern Illinois ~ 53° to 56°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 54° to 58°
Far western Kentucky ~ 54° to 58°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 53° to 58°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 52° to 55°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 54° to 58°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:31 AM
Moonset: 6:10 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Thursday, May 18, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A slight chance of a shower in the Kentucky Pennyrile area.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: After 12 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 84°
Southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 84°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80° to 84°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80° to 84°
Southern Illinois ~ 80° to 84°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80° to 84°
Far western Kentucky ~ 80° to 84°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80° to 84°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80° to 84°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80° to 84°
Winds will be from this direction: East northeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 84°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:44 AM
Sunset: 8:00 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 55° to 58°
Southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 58°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 56° to 58°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 54° to 58°
Southern Illinois ~ 56° to 58°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 56° to 58°
Far western Kentucky ~ 56° to 60°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 56° to 60°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 56° to 58°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 56° to 60°
Winds will be from this direction: East southeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:59 AM
Moonset: 7:18 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Friday, May 19, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? Medium Confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time, but more likely after 12 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 78° to 82°
Southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 82°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80° to 84°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 78° to 82°
Southern Illinois ~ 78° to 82°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80° to 82°
Far western Kentucky ~ 80° to 84°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80° to 84°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80° to 82°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80° to 84°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 84°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 5:43 AM
Sunset: 8:01 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 53° to 56°
Southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 58°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 56° to 60°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 54° to 58°
Southern Illinois ~ 54° to 58°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 56° to 58°
Far western Kentucky ~ 56° to 60°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 56° to 60°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 56° to 60°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 56° to 60°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 5:31 AM
Moonset: 8:26 PM
The phase of the moon: New
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- Beautiful weather today into Thursday.
- Less humid. Nice temperatures.
- Shower and thunderstorm chances return Friday and Friday night. Low chances of showers Saturday.
Weather advice:
As we prepare for spring, let’s make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
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Forecast Discussion
A nice day is on tap for the region. Nice temperatures. Lower dew points (it will feel less humid).
No weather concerns today through Thursday night. Nice weather. Lower temperatures. Low dew points. It is going to feel great outside! Please enjoy the nice spring weather!
The only exception might be eastern portions of the Kentucky Pennyrile where there will be a slight chance of a shower Thursday afternoon/evening.
Our next weather system arrives Friday into Saturday. Model guidance is coming into better agreement as to the timing of this front pushing across the region.
At this time, I have the front moving into the region Friday and Friday night. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front. A few of the storms could be locally strong, but widespread organized severe weather appears unlikely. Perhaps a low-end risk.
Lightning will be a concern for outdoor activities. Some downpours, as well.
A few showers may linger into Saturday, but if we can get the front to push across the region Friday night, then that should shut down most of the rain. Clouds may linger into Saturday.
Rain totals are likely to range from 0.10″ to 0.40″. Locally higher in thunderstorms.
Dry conditions are anticipated Saturday night through Tuesday. Decent temperatures with a slow warming trend through the period. Dew points will remain in the comfortable zone. Not bad for late May!
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
Today through April 18th: A couple of the Saturday afternoon and night thunderstorms could produce damaging wind and hail. The tornado risk is low, but not zero. Mainly over Missouri for the tornado risk. The line will weaken with time as it moves farther east.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
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Tornado Probability Outlook
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Large Hail Probability Outlook
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High wind Probability Outlook
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.
This animation is the SPC WRF Model.
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This animation is the Hrrr Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the EC Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the GFS Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 75 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 54 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.00″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 56 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.00″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Radars and Lightning Data
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Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
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Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
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ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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