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Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.
Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.
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48-hour forecast
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Friday to Friday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Today into Tuesday. Another chance Friday and Saturday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Possible. There will be time periods (mainly during the afternoon hours) when there is quite a bit of energy in the atmosphere. I can’t rule out severe weather. The primary concern will be a few reports of wind damage and hail.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Low risk. Slow moving thunderstorms this time of the year can produce heavy rain. Overall, the flash flood risk is low, but not zero. If thunderstorms were to train over the same areas, then some ponding of water if brief flash flooding could occur.
4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
6. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? No.
7. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? No.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines
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Monday, May 15, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 73° to 76°
Southeast Missouri ~ 73° to 76°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 82° to 85°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 73° to 76°
Southern Illinois ~ 74° to 78°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80° to 82°
Far western Kentucky ~ 80° to 84°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 82° to 84°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 74° to 78°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 82° to 85°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. A few storms could produce high wind and hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:46 AM
Sunset: 7:57 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 60°
Southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 60°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 68°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60° to 65°
Far western Kentucky ~ 62° to 65°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 62° to 65°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 65°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 64° to 68°
Winds will be from this direction: East northeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. A few of the evening storms could produce high wind and hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 3:38 AM
Moonset: 3:55 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Tuesday, May 16, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 70°
Southeast Missouri ~ 72° to 75°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 74° to 78°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 68° to 70°
Southern Illinois ~ 72° to 74°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 73° to 78°
Far western Kentucky ~ 74° to 78°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 74° to 78°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 74° to 76°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 74° to 78°
Winds will be from this direction: North northwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 78°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 5:46 AM
Sunset: 7:58 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of mainly evening showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Ending
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly during the evening
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 54°
Southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 54°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 54° to 56°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 52° to 54°
Southern Illinois ~ 52° to 54°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 52° to 54°
Far western Kentucky ~ 52° to 55°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 53° to 56°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 52° to 55°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 54° to 56°
Winds will be from this direction: North 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 4:04 AM
Moonset: 5:03 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Wednesday, May 17, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Less humid.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 74° to 78°
Southeast Missouri ~ 76° to 78°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 78° to 80°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 74° to 78°
Southern Illinois ~ 74° to 78°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 74° to 78°
Far western Kentucky ~ 76° to 78°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 76° to 78°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 74° to 76°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 76° to 78°
Winds will be from this direction: North northwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:45 AM
Sunset: 7:59 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 54°
Southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 54°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 54° to 56°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 50° to 54°
Southern Illinois ~ 52° to 54°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 52° to 54°
Far western Kentucky ~ 52° to 55°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 53° to 56°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 52° to 55°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 54° to 56°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:31 AM
Moonset: 6:10 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Thursday, May 18, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Less humid.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 76° to 78°
Southeast Missouri ~ 76° to 78°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 78° to 80°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 76° to 78°
Southern Illinois ~ 76° to 78°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 76° to 78°
Far western Kentucky ~ 76° to 78°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 76° to 78°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 74° to 76°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 76° to 78°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:44 AM
Sunset: 8:00 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 58°
Southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 58°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 554° to 58°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 54° to 58°
Southern Illinois ~ 54° to 58°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 54° to 58°
Far western Kentucky ~ 54° to 58°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 54° to 58°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 54° to 58°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 54° to 58°
Winds will be from this direction: East southeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:59 AM
Moonset: 7:18 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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- Additional rain chances.
- Somewhat cooler temperatures.
- Monitoring weekend rain chances.
Weather advice:
As we prepare for spring, let’s make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
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Forecast Discussion
A warm day ahead of us. It will be somewhat less humid over our northern counties. The rest of the area remains near or south of the cold front. That means humid conditions for one more day.
Good day, everyone.
I hope you had a nice weekend.
Many areas experienced heavy showers and thunderstorms. There were some locations that received more than three inches of rain! Other locations, barely enough to wet the dust.
The Weather Observatory only recorded 0.02″ of rain. Not much!
A cold front has slowly been moving southward through the area. This front is the reason for the showers and thunderstorms. Overnight, it stalled across southeast Missouri into Kentucky and Tennessee.
The front will once again be the focus for scattered heavy thunderstorms later today into tonight. Some of the storms could become severe with damaging wind and hail. Torrential rainfall and lightning, as well.
You can see the surface based CAPE on this map. CAPE is energy that thunderstorm tap into. You can see how the CAPE is mostly south vs north.
There isn’t much in the way of wind shear or rotation in the atmosphere. I can’t rule out some tropical funnel clouds. Tropical funnel clouds are usually associated with slow moving summer thunderstorms. They aren’t the same as tornadic supercells or even tornadic funnel clouds. They rarely touch down and cause any problems.
There was one yesterday in southern Illinois. It lasted a few minutes.
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined our region for a level one severe weather risk.
If the sky darkens then check your Beau Dodson Weather app or the Beau Dodson Weather Radars. I may have to send out a message or two.
The front will be the dividing marker between muggy air and somewhat less humid air to the north.
You can see that on this dew point map. The purples are muggier air. Areas to the north are somewhat less humid.
The front will move northward as a warm front today.
Tonight, another system will approach the region from the south and west. This will bring additional shower and thunderstorm chances to the region.
These precipitation chances will linger into tomorrow.
By tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night, that system will be moving off to the east. That will shut down the precipitation chances for a few days.
Cooler and less humid air will finally arrive tomorrow and Wednesday.
Our less humid air will be short-lived.
Another system will approach the region Friday and Saturday. I have shower and thunderstorm chances returning to the forecast during this time-period.
The system has slowed a bit in the guidance. At one point it was looking like a Friday event. Now it appears to mainly be a Friday night and Saturday event.
A few of the storms could be strong. Overall, the severe weather risk this coming weekend appears to be on the low end. Perhaps not zero.
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
Today through April 18th: A couple of the Saturday afternoon and night thunderstorms could produce damaging wind and hail. The tornado risk is low, but not zero. Mainly over Missouri for the tornado risk. The line will weaken with time as it moves farther east.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
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Tornado Probability Outlook
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Large Hail Probability Outlook
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High wind Probability Outlook
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.
This animation is the SPC WRF Model.
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This animation is the Hrrr Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the NAM Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the GFS Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 75 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 54 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.00″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 56 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.00″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
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Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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