May 10, 2023: Unsettled weather. Monitoring thunderstorm chances.

Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section

Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

Consider giving www.weathertalk.com as a gift. A gift that keeps on giving.

They will receive
.

1. Daily forecasts (hand typed) sent to the Beau Dodson Weather app.

2. Daily short and long range outlooks on the weather blog.

3. The Daily weather blog contains all the weather information you could ever want or need!

4. Tornado and severe thunderstorm alerts sent directly to your cell phone via the Beau Dodson Weather app.

5. Ice storm alerts. Winter storm alerts.

6. Ohio and Missouri Valley videos.

7. Long range forecast videos and more!
.

Here is how to subscribe.

Visit the www.weathertalk.com website and make an account.

Then, add in their cell phone number(s), the county they live in, and what counties they would like to receive alerts for.

You can then pick and choose what products you want them to receive on your app.

Then, have them download the Beau Dodson Weather app from the app store. It is under Weather Talk.

Apple users: Beau Dodson Weather App

https://wtalk.co/9EZYG8A8

Android users: Beau Dodson Weather App

https://wtalk.co/ZEWYU8ME

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

Today’s almanac numbers from a few select local cities.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

Then, it shows you the departures (how many degrees above or below average temperatures will be).

It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset is also shown.

If you have not subscribed to my YouTube Channel then click on this link and it will take you to my videos.

Click the button below and it will take you to the Beau Dodson YouTube Channel.

48-hour forecast

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

.

Wednesday to Wednesday

1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. A chance of lightning Wednesday and Wednesday night. That would mainly be over far southeast Missouri, the Missouri Bootheel, and northwest Tennessee. Perhaps near the MS River counties of Kentucky. There is a higher chance of lightning Thursday into the weekend.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Possible. There will be time periods (mainly during the afternoon hours) when there is quite a bit of energy in the atmosphere. I can’t rule out severe weather. At this time, organized widespread severe weather appears unlikely. I will keep a close eye on it.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Low risk. Slow moving thunderstorms this time of the year can produce heavy rain. Overall, the flash flood risk is low, but not zero. If thunderstorms were to train over the same areas, then some ponding of water if brief flash flooding could occur.

4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.

5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.

6. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? No.

7. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? No.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines

Wednesday, May 10, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A chance of a morning shower or thunderstorm over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. A chance of showers and thunderstorms over mainly southeast Missouri and northwest Tennessee. I will keep an eye on the Kentucky counties near the Mississippi River. A band of showers and thunderstorms will approach from Arkansas as we move into the afternoon hours.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 84°
Southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 84°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 83° to 86°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80° to 84°
Southern Illinois ~ 80° to 84°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 82° to 84°
Far western Kentucky ~ 82° to 85°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 82° to 84°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80° to 84°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 83° to 86°
Winds will be from this direction: East 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 85°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:51 AM
Sunset: 7:53 PM
.

Wednesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over mainly southeast Missouri.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 56° to 60°
Southeast Missouri ~ 56° to 60°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 62° to 65°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 56° to 60°
Southern Illinois ~ 56° to 60°°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 56° to 60°
Far western Kentucky ~ 58° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 56° to 60°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 55° to 60°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60° to 65°
Winds will be from this direction: East 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. (SE MO)
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 12:38 AM
Moonset: 9:57 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

Thursday, May 11, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Thickening clouds. A chance of mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Lower chances during the morning.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly during the afternoon (but storms could occur at any given time)
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 84°
Southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 84°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 82° to 84°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80° to 84°
Southern Illinois ~ 80° to 84°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 82° to 84°
Far western Kentucky ~ 82° to 84°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 82° to 84°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 82° to 84°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 82° to 84°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 85°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy downpours. Gusty winds. Small hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 5:51 AM
Sunset: 7:53 PM
.

Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 63° to 66°
Southeast Missouri ~ 63° to 66°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 63° to 66°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 63° to 66°
Southern Illinois ~ 63° to 66°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 63° to 66°
Far western Kentucky ~ 63° to 66°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 63° to 66°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 63° to 66°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 63° to 66°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 63° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy downpours.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 12:38 AM
Moonset: 9:57 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

Friday, May 12, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time. Higher coverage during the afternoon and evening.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 82° to 84°
Southeast Missouri ~ 82° to 84°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 82° to 84°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 82° to 84°
Southern Illinois ~ 82° to 84°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 82° to 84°
Far western Kentucky ~ 82° to 84°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 82° to 84°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 82° to 84°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 82° to 84°
Winds will be from this direction: South 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 85°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy downpours. Gusty winds. Small hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 5:49 AM
Sunset: 7:55 PM
.

Friday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous early. Scattered.
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 63° to 66°
Southeast Missouri ~ 63° to 66°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 63° to 66°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 63° to 66°
Southern Illinois ~ 63° to 66°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 63° to 66°
Far western Kentucky ~ 63° to 66°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 63° to 66°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 63° to 66°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 63° to 66°
Winds will be from this direction: South 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 63° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy downpours.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 2:09 AM
Moonset: 12:24 AM
The phase of the moon: Last Quarter

Saturday, May 13, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? Medium Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time. Higher coverage during the afternoon and evening.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 83° to 86°
Southeast Missouri ~ 83° to 86°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 83° to 86°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 83° to 86°
Southern Illinois ~ 83° to 86°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 83° to 86°
Far western Kentucky ~ 83° to 86°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 83° to 86°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 83° to 86°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 83° to 86°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 85°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy downpours. Gusty winds. Small hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 5:48 AM
Sunset: 7:55 PM
.

Saturday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous early. Scattered.
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 63° to 66°
Southeast Missouri ~ 63° to 66°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 63° to 66°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 63° to 66°
Southern Illinois ~ 63° to 66°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 63° to 66°
Far western Kentucky ~ 63° to 66°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 63° to 66°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 63° to 66°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 63° to 66°
Winds will be from this direction: South 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 63° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy downpours.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 2:43 AM
Moonset: 1:36 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Weather Highlights

1. Warm weather. Becoming more humid.
2. Unsettled weather ahead.
3. Thunderstorm chances.

Weather advice:

As we prepare for spring, let’s make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.

Forecast Discussion

A mild day ahead of us. Mostly dry, but there will be some exceptions. See below.

A weak disturbance is moving through the area today.

There have been a couple of showers and thunderstorms over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. These will dissipate over the coming hours.

Here was the 6:30 AM radar.

Another wave will approach from Arkansas today and tonight. This wave will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms. Peak chances will be near the Missouri/Arkansas border into northwest Tennessee and perhaps far western Kentucky. The chances decrease as you travel farther northeast in the region.

Some downpours will be possible and lightning. I don’t expect severe thunderstorms today.

A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible tonight, as well.

You can see that disturbance, as of 7 am, well to our south. It is moving north.

It will be warm today with highs in the 80s. Lower humidity levels over much of the region.

The weather becomes a bit more unsettled as we move into Thursday, Friday, and then into the weekend.

A more summer type pattern will re-establish itself across the region.

Dew points will rise into the mid to upper 60s (and perhaps some 70+ readings) as we move into Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Peak dew points will likely be this weekend. It will feel humid outside.

Dew point is a measure of moisture in the atmosphere.

We often talk about dew points during the summer months.

With the humidity will come a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms. We will have to watch for more organized thunderstorm complexes. These are called MCS’s. MCS’s are common during the late spring and summer months.

They are large thunderstorm complexes that can produce heavy rain, hail, and high winds. Frequent lightning, as well. They can occasionally produce severe weather.

MCS’s are what moved through the region Sunday and Monday.

They are difficult to forecast (even within a 24 hour time-frame).

The atmosphere will be quite unstable late this week into the weekend. Whether a disturbance will tap into that instability will need to be closely monitored.

CAPE values will likely peak Friday and Saturday. CAPE is basically energy that thunderstorms tap into. Think of them as food for storms. Higher CAPE values equal more energy in the atmosphere.

Thursday CAPE won’t be all that impressive.

Friday CAPE will be significant/high. Lot of energy in the atmosphere. If storms form, then they could be severe.

Saturday CAPE values. Not as high as Friday, but still something to monitor.

For now, there is not a strong signal for any 12-hour time-frame for an organized thunderstorm complex. As mentioned above, however, they can be difficult to forecast.

I will be closely monitoring it.

For planning purposes, plan on peak shower and thunderstorm chances to be during the afternoon and evening hours. That would be during peak heating time. That is when the atmosphere is most unstable.

It will be warm this week into the weekend.

A cold front will push through the region Sunday night into Monday. This will help to lower shower and thunderstorm chances Monday and Tuesday.

Northwest flow will develop next week. That means average to below average temperatures. I will need to monitor the chance of northwest flow thunderstorms.

Often times, during the warm season, a northwest flow means thunderstorms. They form along the heat ridge. Something worth monitoring as we move into next week.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.

Today through April 18th: A couple of the Saturday afternoon and night thunderstorms could produce damaging wind and hail. The tornado risk is low, but not zero. Mainly over Missouri for the tornado risk. The line will weaken with time as it moves farther east.

Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables. Click here.

Tornado Probability Outlook

Large Hail Probability Outlook

High wind Probability Outlook

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
.

48-hour precipitation outlook.
..

_______________________________________

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

What am I looking at?

You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.

This animation is the SPC WRF Model.

This animation is the Hrrr Model.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

This animation is the NAM Model.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 75 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 54 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.00″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 76 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 56 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.00″
.

Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk

Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.

The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.

Apple users click here

Android users click here

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.