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Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.
Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.
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48-hour forecast
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Tuesday to Tuesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. A small chance of lightning today. There is a higher chance of lightning Thursday into the weekend.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Possible. There will be time periods (mainly during the afternoon hours) when there is quite a bit of energy in the atmosphere. I can’t rule out severe weather. At this time, organized widespread severe weather appears unlikely. I will keep a close eye on it.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Low risk. Slow moving thunderstorms this time of the year can produce heavy rain. Overall, the flash flood risk is low, but not zero. If thunderstorms were to train over the same areas, then some ponding of water if brief flash flooding could occur.
4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
6. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? No.
7. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? No.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines
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Tuesday, May 9, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Mild. I can’t completely rule out a shower or storm this afternoon over the Missouri Bootheel and near the KY/TN state line. The chances aren’t great. I included a 20% chance for those areas. Lower chances elsewhere.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Timing of the precipitation: This afternoon
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 78° to 82°
Southeast Missouri ~ 78° to 82°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80° to 84°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 78° to 82°
Southern Illinois ~ 78° to 82°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 78° to 82°
Far western Kentucky ~ 80° to 84°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80° to 84°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 78° to 82°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80° to 84°
Winds will be from this direction: Northeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 84°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars this afternoon
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:52 AM
Sunset: 7:52 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 58°
Southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 58°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 54° to 58°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 54° to 58°
Southern Illinois ~ 54° to 58°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 54° to 58°
Far western Kentucky ~ 54° to 58°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 54° to 58°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 54° to 58°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 54° to 58°
Winds will be from this direction: Northeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: : PM
Moonset: 8:49 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Wednesday, May 10, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over mainly southeast Missouri.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Afternoon and evening hours (SE MO)
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 84°
Southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 84°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 83° to 86°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80° to 84°
Southern Illinois ~ 80° to 84°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 82° to 84°
Far western Kentucky ~ 82° to 85°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 82° to 84°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80° to 84°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 83° to 86°
Winds will be from this direction: East 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 85°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. (SE MO)
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:51 AM
Sunset: 7:53 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over mainly southeast Missouri.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated (SE MO)
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 56° to 60°
Southeast Missouri ~ 56° to 60°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 62° to 65°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 56° to 60°
Southern Illinois ~ 56° to 60°°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 56° to 60°
Far western Kentucky ~ 58° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 56° to 60°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 55° to 60°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60° to 65°
Winds will be from this direction: East 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. (SE MO)
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 12:38 AM
Moonset: 9:57 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Thursday, May 11, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Thickening clouds. A chance of mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Lower chances during the morning.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly during the afternoon (but storms could occur at any given time)
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 84°
Southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 84°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 82° to 84°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80° to 84°
Southern Illinois ~ 80° to 84°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 82° to 84°
Far western Kentucky ~ 82° to 84°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 82° to 84°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 82° to 84°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 82° to 84°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 85°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy downpours. Gusty winds. Small hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:51 AM
Sunset: 7:53 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 63° to 66°
Southeast Missouri ~ 63° to 66°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 63° to 66°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 63° to 66°
Southern Illinois ~ 63° to 66°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 63° to 66°
Far western Kentucky ~ 63° to 66°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 63° to 66°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 63° to 66°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 63° to 66°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 63° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy downpours.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 12:38 AM
Moonset: 9:57 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Friday, May 12, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time. Higher coverage during the afternoon and evening.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 82° to 84°
Southeast Missouri ~ 82° to 84°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 82° to 84°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 82° to 84°
Southern Illinois ~ 82° to 84°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 82° to 84°
Far western Kentucky ~ 82° to 84°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 82° to 84°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 82° to 84°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 82° to 84°
Winds will be from this direction: South 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 85°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy downpours. Gusty winds. Small hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:51 AM
Sunset: 7:53 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous early. Scattered.
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 63° to 66°
Southeast Missouri ~ 63° to 66°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 63° to 66°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 63° to 66°
Southern Illinois ~ 63° to 66°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 63° to 66°
Far western Kentucky ~ 63° to 66°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 63° to 66°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 63° to 66°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 63° to 66°
Winds will be from this direction: South 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 63° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy downpours.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 12:38 AM
Moonset: 9:57 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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- Warm weather.
- Unsettled weather ahead.
Weather advice:
As we prepare for spring, let’s make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
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Forecast Discussion
A mild day ahead of us.
Thank you for letting me have a few days off! I enjoyed my birthday with family and friends.
The weather managed to turn stormy on us Sunday and Monday. There were quite a few wind damage reports and numerous large hail reports. Murphy’s law! I take a couple of days off and storms form.
There were several reports of wind damage last night across the region. Mainly over southeast Missouri, far southern Illinois, and far western Kentucky. There were likely some 70 mph wind gusts in the storms.
I only recorded 0.07″ of rain at The Weather Observatory. Some areas picked up more than three inches of rain!
The weather will be much quieter today into tomorrow. No serious weather concerns. Mild temperatures. Not quite as humid.
I did include a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms over the Missouri Bootheel and along the KY/TN border this afternoon. Lower chances everywhere else.
It may end up dry everywhere, but the front is near our southern counties. Thus, I can’t completely rule out a popup thunderstorm.
There is a low-end chance of showers and thunderstorms over southeast Missouri Wednesday and Wednesday night. The bulk of my forecast area will remain dry during this time-period.
The weather becomes a bit more unsettled as we move into Thursday, Friday, and then into the weekend.
A more summer type pattern will re-establish itself across the region.
Dew points will rise into the mid to upper 60s (and perhaps some 70+ readings) as we move into Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Peak dew points will likely be this weekend. It will feel humid outside.
Dew point is a measure of moisture in the atmosphere.
We often talk about dew points during the summer months.
With the humidity will come a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms. We will have to watch for more organized thunderstorm complexes. These are called MCS’s. MCS’s are common during the late spring and summer months.
They are large thunderstorm complexes that can produce heavy rain, hail, and high winds. Frequent lightning, as well. They can occasionally produce severe weather.
MCS’s are what moved through the region Sunday and Monday.
They are difficult to forecast (even within a 24 hour time-frame).
The atmosphere will be quite unstable late this week into the weekend. Whether a disturbance will tap into that instability will need to be closely monitored.
CAPE values will likely peak Friday and Saturday. CAPE is basically energy that thunderstorms tap into. Think of them as food for storms. Higher CAPE values equal more energy in the atmosphere.
Thursday CAPE won’t be all that impressive.
Friday CAPE will be significant/high. Lot of energy in the atmosphere. If storms form, then they could be severe.
Saturday CAPE values. Not as high as Friday, but still something to monitor.
For now, there is not a strong signal for any 12-hour time-frame for an organized thunderstorm complex. As mentioned above, however, they can be difficult to forecast.
I will be closely monitoring it.
For planning purposes, plan on peak rain chances to be during the afternoon and evening hours. That would be during peak heating time. That is when the atmosphere is most unstable.
It will be warm this week into the weekend.
Some of the data paints Saturday and Sunday dry. For now, I kept lower end precipitation chances. I will monitor trends and update that portion of the forecast as fresh data arrives.
At some point this weekend, a cold front may push across the area. That would squash the thunderstorm chances farther to the south.
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
Today through April 18th: A couple of the Saturday afternoon and night thunderstorms could produce damaging wind and hail. The tornado risk is low, but not zero. Mainly over Missouri for the tornado risk. The line will weaken with time as it moves farther east.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
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Tornado Probability Outlook
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Large Hail Probability Outlook
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High wind Probability Outlook
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.
This animation is the SPC WRF Model.
This animation is the NAM Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the GFS Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 75 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 54 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.00″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 56 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.00″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
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Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
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ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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