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Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.
Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.
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48-hour forecast
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Wednesday to Wednesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Isolated lightning is possible late Thursday. Isolated lightning is possible Saturday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Unlikely. Locally heavy rain is possible over Tennessee and Kentucky Thursday. A few ditches or commonly flooded areas could briefly have water issues.
4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
6. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? No.
7. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? No.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines
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Wednesday, April 26, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: After 4 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 68°
Southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 68°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 68°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 64° to 68°
Southern Illinois ~ 64° to 68°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 64° to 68°
Far western Kentucky ~ 64° to 68°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 64° to 68°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 64° to 68°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 64° to 68°
Winds will be from this direction: Northeast 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:07 AM
Sunset: 7:40 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers. Higher chances south vs north.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Mostly late at night
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 50°
Southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 50°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 50° to 52°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 45° to 48°
Southern Illinois ~ 46° to 48°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 48° to 50°
Far western Kentucky ~ 50° to 52°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 50° to 52°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 46° to 48°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 50° to 52°
Winds will be from this direction: Northeast 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather radars.
Moonrise: 10:50 AM
Moonset: 1:32 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Thursday, April 27, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. Showers likely. A few thunderstorms possible.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 100%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 90%
Far western Kentucky ~ 90%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 55° to 60°
Southeast Missouri ~ 56° to 60°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 58° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 58° to 60°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 62°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 62° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 58° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 62° to 64°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 62° to 64°
Winds will be from this direction: Northeast 8 to 16 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Isolated lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:05AM
Sunset: 7:41 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80%
Southeast Missouri ~ 80%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 90%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70%
Southern Illinois ~ 80%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80%
Far western Kentucky ~ 90%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 90%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 48°
Southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 50°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 52° to 54°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 46° to 48°
Southern Illinois ~ 46° to 48°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 48° to 52°
Far western Kentucky ~ 50° to 52°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 50° to 52°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 50° to 52°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 52° to 54°
Winds will be from this direction: Northeast 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and check the Beau Dodson Weather radars.
Moonrise: 11:50 AM
Moonset: 2:14 AM
The phase of the moon: First Quarter
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Friday, April 28, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 66°
Southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 66°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 66° to 68°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 64° to 66°
Southern Illinois ~ 64° to 66°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 64° to 66°
Far western Kentucky ~ 66° to 70°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 66° to 70°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 64° to 66°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 66° to 70°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:04AM
Sunset: 7:42 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered (more likely Saturday)
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
Southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 50°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 50° to 52°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 44° to 48°
Southern Illinois ~ 46° to 48°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 46° to 48°
Far western Kentucky ~ 46° to 50°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 46° to 50°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 46° to 48°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 50° to 52°
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather radars.
Moonrise: 12:51 PM
Moonset: 2:49 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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Saturday, April 29, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of showers. A thunderstorm will be possible.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 70°
Southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 70°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70° to 72°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 66° to 70°
Southern Illinois ~ 68° to 70°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70° to 72°
Far western Kentucky ~ 68° to 72°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 68° to 72°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 68° to 72°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70° to 72°
Winds will be from this direction: West 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Isolated lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but you will want to check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars. Some showers are likely in the area.
UV Index: 6. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:03AM
Sunset: 7:43 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered (ending)
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly before midnight
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 50°
Southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 50°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 50° to 52°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 46° to 48°
Southern Illinois ~ 46° to 48°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 46° to 50°
Far western Kentucky ~ 48° to 50°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 48° to 50°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 48° to 52°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 50° to 52°
Winds will be from this direction: West 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather radars.
Moonrise: 1:51 PM
Moonset: 3:18 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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- Rain chances ramping up into Thursday.
- Another rain event late Friday night into Saturday.
- Cooler than average temperatures.
Weather advice:
As we prepare for spring, let’s make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
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Forecast Discussion
Today will be a transition day. Stepping into a few days of unsettled weather.
We will have increasing clouds today. A couple of light showers will be possible along the MO/AR and KY/TN border areas. Otherwise, a coolish day for the region with dry conditions.
Winds won’t be too bad today, either.
The frontal boundary will slowly slide northward tonight as an area of low pressure develops to our west. A few showers are possible tonight, but I did lower the chances a tad. The system, overall, has slowed some.
Late tonight, you can expect a few showers to move into the area from the west.
The system will push through the region Thursday and now Thursday night. That means numerous showers and some thunderstorms moving across the area.
Our peak rain chances will be Thursday into Thursday night. See the future-cast radars below.
The area of low pressure will push across our region Thursday night into Friday morning. The good news is that we are not anticipating severe thunderstorms.
Lightning flash forecast indicates the highest chance of lightning will be late Thursday afternoon into early Friday morning.
7 PM to 1 AM lightning flash density forecast
Portions of western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee may see training showers and thunderstorms. Moderate precipitation repeatedly moving over the same area. The atmosphere will be quite moist with Gulf of Mexico air. This is where the heaviest rain totals will likely occur. Some counties may experience rain totals in excess of 1.2″.
Here is the rainfall outlook from today through Saturday night/Sunday morning.
The bulk of this will fall Thursday and Thursday night.
The system will be pulling away from the region Thursday night and Friday morning. That will mean decreasing shower chances.
Clouds will linger into Friday. A few showers will be possible during the day Friday, but nothing significant. Rain totals during the day Friday would be less than 0.15″.
Yet another cold front will move into the region Saturday. This system will bring additional showers and perhaps some thunderstorms back into the region.
The thunderstorms chances will be on the low end. A few lightning strikes will be possible Saturday, but no severe thunderstorms.
I did lower rain probabilities a bit Saturday.
It is possible that the Saturday system is broken into two pieces. Precipitation may end up a bit more widespread to our north and south. Leaving us in the middle. That raises questions about the % numbers for Saturday. Thus, the adjustment.
If you have outdoor plans, then have a plan B in case of rain. Then, monitor updates and radars.
Rain totals will be less than 0.5″ Friday night into Saturday.
Sunday through Tuesday will likely be dry. Cooler than average temperatures, as well. That seems to be the current pattern theme that we find ourselves in.
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
Today through April 18th: A couple of the Saturday afternoon and night thunderstorms could produce damaging wind and hail. The tornado risk is low, but not zero. Mainly over Missouri for the tornado risk. The line will weaken with time as it moves farther east.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
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Tornado Probability Outlook
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Large Hail Probability Outlook
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High wind Probability Outlook
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.
This animation is the SPC WRF Model.
This animation is the NAM Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the GFS Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 72 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 51 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.00″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 52 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.00″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
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Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
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ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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