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Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.
Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.
Today’s almanac numbers from a few select local cities.
The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.
The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.
It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.
Then, it shows you the departures (how many degrees above or below average temperatures will be).
It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.
It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.
The sunrise and sunset is also shown.
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48-hour forecast
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Thursday to Thursday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible Thursday into Friday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Possible. A few of the thunderstorms could be severe Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. The risk is higher over Missouri vs the rest of the area. Monitor updates.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Possible. Locally heavy rain will be possible Thursday into Friday night. I am expecting a widespread one to two inches with pockets of two to three inches.
4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
6. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? No.
7. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? No.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines
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Thursday, April 20, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Thickening clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Increasing chances from the west. It is possible much of the day is dry east of the Mississippi River. The system has slowed by about six hours.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered. Highest chances over Missouri.
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly late this afternoon and evening.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 76° to 80°
Southeast Missouri ~ 76° to 80°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80° to 82°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 78° to 80°
Southern Illinois ~ 76° to 80°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 76° to 80°
Far western Kentucky ~ 80° to 82°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80° to 82°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80° to 82°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80° to 82°
Winds will be from this direction: South 15 to 35 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 82°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Monitor the risk of intense storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:14 AM
Sunset: 7:35 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80%
Southeast Missouri ~ 90%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80%
Southern Illinois ~ 80%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 90%
Far western Kentucky ~ 90%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 54°
Southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 54°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 54° to 58°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 50° to 54°
Southern Illinois ~ 54° to 58°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 54° to 58°
Far western Kentucky ~ 54° to 58°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 56° to 58°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 54° to 58°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 54° to 58°
Winds will be from this direction: South 15 to 30 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. A few storms could be intense. Locally heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. Check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 6:30 AM
Moonset: 8:26 PM
The phase of the moon: New
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Friday, April 21, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. The chances will be higher over the eastern half of the region. Chances will be lower over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Higher over southeast Illinois into Kentucky and Tennessee. Portions of the region may be mostly dry after the early morning hours as the band of rain shifts eastward. Keep that in mind. A second wave of rain will develop during the afternoon and evening and move in from the south southwest. Overspreading at least western Kentucky and Tennessee. We will have to see if Missouri and Illinois receive the afternoon rain (will depend on frontal boundary stalling).
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 90%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 65° to 70°
Southeast Missouri ~ 65° to 70°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 65° to 70°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 65° to 70°
Southern Illinois ~ 65° to 70°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 65° to 70°
Far western Kentucky ~ 65° to 70°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 65° to 70°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 65° to 70°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 65° to 70°
Winds will be from this direction: North 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. Check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:14 AM
Sunset: 7:36 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers. A thunderstorm possible the first half of the night. Decreasing rain coverage with time. Rain chances will be highest over Kentucky and Tennessee with decreasing chances farther west.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous (mainly the eastern portion of the region).
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time. Highest coverage before 2 AM.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 45°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 43° to 46°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 42° to 45°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 45°
Far western Kentucky ~ 43° to 46°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 43° to 46°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 43° to 46°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 43° to 46°
Winds will be from this direction: North northwest 15 to 25 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 42°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. Check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 7:00 AM
Moonset: 9:35 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Saturday, April 22, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly cloudy. Cooler. Breezy, at times.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 56°
Southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 56°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 56° to 60°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 53° to 56°
Southern Illinois ~ 55° to 58°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 55° to 60°
Far western Kentucky ~ 55° to 60°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 55° to 60°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 55° to 60°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60° to 64°
Winds will be from this direction: West 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:12 AM
Sunset: 7:36 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Colder. A slight chance of patchy frost.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 35°
Southeast Missouri ~ 33° to 36°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 34° to 38°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 32° to 35°
Southern Illinois ~ 34° to 38°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 34° to 38°
Far western Kentucky ~ 36° to 38°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 36° to 38°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 36° to 38°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 36° to 38°
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 36°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Moonrise: 7:34 AM
Moonset: 10:43 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Sunday, April 23, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 56°
Southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 56°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 55° to 60°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 53° to 55°
Southern Illinois ~ 55° to 58°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 55° to 60°
Far western Kentucky ~ 55° to 60°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 55° to 60°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 55° to 60°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 58° to 60°
Winds will be from this direction: NW 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:12 AM
Sunset: 7:36 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cold. Patchy frost.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 33° to 36°
Southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 38°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 34° to 38°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 33° to 36°
Southern Illinois ~ 34° to 38°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 34° to 38°
Far western Kentucky ~ 36° to 38°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 36° to 38°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 36° to 38°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 36° to 40°
Winds will be from this direction: North northwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 33° to 38°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Moonrise: 7:34 AM
Moonset: 10:43 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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- Increasing clouds today with showers and thunderstorms developing over our western counties this afternoon.
- A few of the thunderstorms could be intense over mainly Missouri and southwest Illinois. That would be this afternoon into this evening.
- Locally heavy rain over the next 24 to 48 hours.
- Greater rain coverage over the eastern half of the region Friday vs the western half. See future-cast radars.
- Monitoring frost chances this weekend.
Weather advice:
As we prepare for spring, let’s make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
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Forecast Discussion
We do have increased fire risks today over primarily western Kentucky.
Use caution if you must burn brush or fields. Or, wait a few days.
A nice sunny day is on tap for the region. Warm temperatures, as well. Windy conditions with wind gusts above 30 mph, from time to time.
Here is a sample from one local city. Feels like temps today. Nice!!
A cold front is pushing towards the region from the west southwest. This front will slowly makes its way into our area late this afternoon into tonight. It will then stall over Kentucky and Tennessee as we move into Friday.
An area of low pressure will develop to our northwest today, as well.
This sets the stage for showers and thunderstorms. Most of today will be dry across a good chunk of the region (esp east of the Mississippi River). There will be at least a chance of some showers and thunderstorms over mainly southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Lower chances as you travel farther and farther eastward in the area.
Gusty winds today, as well. Some of the wind gusts may top 35 mph.
Shower and thunderstorm chances ramp up area-wide late this afternoon into the overnight hours. Moving in from southeast Missouri and Arkansas. That will be our first band of showers and thunderstorms.
There will be some low-end instability for thunderstorms to tap into. We have been outlined for a low-level risk of severe weather this afternoon into tonight.
The risk will be highest over southeast Missouri and Arkansas. Southwest Illinois perhaps, as well.
Here is the current SPC severe weather outlook. This is a level one and two risk. The yellow is the level two risk zone.
The main concern will be a few reports of high wind and hail. A low end tornado risk. Overall, this system does not have as great of dynamics of some of our recent systems. This raises questions about the extent of the severe weather threat.
Plan on a least a low-level threat late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Mainly over southeast Missouri and perhaps southwest Illinois.
The peak time-frame for severe weather will likely be 4 PM through 10 PM Thursday. Again, mainly over Missouri and southwest Illinois. A few severe thunderstorm warnings will be possible.
Locally heavy rain will be possible in thunderstorms, as well. Lightning, of course.
The system is forecast to slow and/or stall Thursday night into Friday morning. This will lead to a continuation of shower and thunderstorm chances into Friday.
As mentioned above, the chances of rain Friday will be higher over our eastern counties vs western. It is possible that portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois end up mostly dry Friday. With higher rain chances over southeast Illinois, Kentucky, and Tennessee. See the future-cast radars below.
Another area of low pressure will move through the region Friday morning and afternoon. This one will approach the region from the Gulf of Mexico.
We will be on the cool side of this low, thus no severe weather risk. Thankfully.
Rain totals of 1.3 to 2.60″ are likely with these systems. Where training thunderstorms develop, there could be rain totals exceeding those numbers.
Here is the WPC/NOAA rainfall forecast. As you can see, the totals have been increased.
Friday’s system has sped up just a little bit. The WPC lowered some of their numbers in Kentucky and Tennessee. They were a tad high to begin with.
Double click on the image to enlarge it.
Expect lingering showers and thunderstorms into Friday night. Especially over our eastern counties.
Expect a few clouds Saturday with cooler temperatures and gusty winds. A low end chance of light showers Saturday, as well.
I did go with Partly sunny sky conditions Saturday vs all clouds.
Saturday winds
I will be watching Saturday and Sunday night’s low temperatures. If the wind were to subside, then there could be a chance of frost. That would be more likely Sunday night vs Saturday night.
Overnight lows are expected to dip into the 30s. Whether we can achieve low to middle 30s will need to be monitored. Then, the wind would also have to subside in order for frost to form. Monitor updates if you have sensitive plants.
GFS model lows for Sunday morning. Mostly 30s.
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
Sunday morning lows. Low chance of frost Sunday morning because of wind.
Monday Morning lows on the GFS model
A little higher chance Monday morning for frost. Winds should subside Sunday night.
Another chance of showers and thunderstorms will return to the forecast around Tuesday into Wednesday. Perhaps centered on Tuesday night and Wednesday. There isn’t a lot of agreement in the guidance, at this point.
At this time, the threat of severe weather appears limited, but I will monitor that portion of the forecast.
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
Today through April 18th: A couple of the Saturday afternoon and night thunderstorms could produce damaging wind and hail. The tornado risk is low, but not zero. Mainly over Missouri for the tornado risk. The line will weaken with time as it moves farther east.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
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Tornado Probability Outlook
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Large Hail Probability Outlook
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High wind Probability Outlook
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.
This animation is the Hrrr Model.
This animation is the NAM Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 48 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 50 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.40″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
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ZoomRadar
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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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