Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

February 20, 2023: Unsettled weather.

 

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Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region.  Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.  Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

Video update

Neau’s Two Minute Weather Forecast

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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities).  Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrow’s.

Decreasing cloud cover today.  Clouds this morning will give way to sunshine.

Winds today won’t be too bad.

Today’s feels like temperature.  Nice!

 

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48-hour forecast



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Monday to Monday

1. Is lightning in the forecast?  Yes.  Lightning is possible Tuesday night and Wednesday.  A small chance Wednesday night.   Another chance next Monday.

2.  Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast?  Yes.  Tuesday night and Wednesday.  Again next Monday, as well.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Low risk.   Locally heavy rain will be possible Tuesday night and Wednesday.  Another rain event Friday night and Saturday.  Another round of rain early next week. Many areas have saturated soils.  Additional moderate to heavy rain could cause some issues.

4. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees?  No.

5.  Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast?   No.

6.  Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast?  No.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines

6. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees?  No.

 

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Monday, February 20, 2023
Confidence in the forecast?  High Confidence  
Monday Forecast:  A slight chance of a morning shower.  Some AM clouds. Becoming mostly sunny. Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%

Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Before 9 AM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 62°
Southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 64°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 63° to 66°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 62° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 62° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 62° to 65°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 62° to 65°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 62° to 65°

Winds will be from this direction:   South southwest 7 to 14 mph with gusts above 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:38 AM
Sunset:  5:40 PM

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Monday night Forecast:   Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%

Coverage of precipitation: Isolated southeast counties early in the night.
Timing of the precipitation: Before 7 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 40°
Southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 46°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 45° to 50°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 36° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 44° to 46°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 44° to 48°
Far western Kentucky ~ 45° to 50°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 45° to 50°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~  44° to 48°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 45° to 50°

Winds will be from this direction:   South southwest becoming west 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 32° to 42°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise:  7:12 AM
Moonset:  6:19 PM
The phase of the moon: New

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Tuesday, February 21, 2023
Confidence in the forecast?  High Confidence  
Tuesday Forecast:  Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%

Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 62°
Southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 65°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 62° to 65°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Southern Illinois ~ 62° to 65°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 62° to 65°
Far western Kentucky ~  62° to 65°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 62° to 65°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 65°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 63° to 66°

Winds will be from this direction:   Variable wind direction 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:37 AM
Sunset:  5:41 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast:   Increasing clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Rising temperatures late at night.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%

Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: After 7 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
Southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 55°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 50° to 55°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 44° to 48°
Southern Illinois ~ 50° to 55°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 50° to 55°
Far western Kentucky ~ 50° to 55°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 50° to 55°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 50° to 55°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 50° to 55°

Winds will be from this direction:   South southwest 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise:  7:44 AM
Moonset:  7:33 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

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Wednesday, February 22, 2023
Confidence in the forecast?  High Confidence  
Wednesday Forecast:  Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%

Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 72°
Southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 72°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 68° to 72°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 68° to 72°
Southern Illinois ~ 68° to 72°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 68° to 72°
Far western Kentucky ~ 68° to 72°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 68° to 72°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 68° to 72°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 68° to 72°

Winds will be from this direction:   South southwest 15 to 30 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast 68° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 6:36 AM
Sunset:  5:42 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast:   Cloudy with a chance of mainly evening showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%

Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Before 10 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 52°
Southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 52°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 48° to 52°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 48° to 52°
Southern Illinois ~ 32° to 34°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 48° to 52°
Far western Kentucky ~ 48° to 52°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~48° to 52°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 48° to 52°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 48° to 52°

Winds will be from this direction:   South southwest 10 to 25 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B during the evening and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise:  8:11 AM
Moonset:  8:44 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

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Thursday, February 23, 2023
Confidence in the forecast?  High Confidence  
Thursday Forecast:  Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%

Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 72°
Southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 72°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 66° to 72°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 66° to 72°
Southern Illinois ~ 66° to 72°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 66° to 72°
Far western Kentucky ~ 66° to 72°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 66° to 72°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 66° to 72°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 66° to 72°

Winds will be from this direction:   South southwest becoming west southwest 15 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:34 AM
Sunset:  5:43 PM
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Thursday night Forecast:   Mostly clear. Colder.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%

Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 28° to 32°
Southeast Missouri ~ 30° to 34°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 32° to 34°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 28° to 32°
Southern Illinois ~ 30° to 34°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 32° to 34°
Far western Kentucky ~ 32° to 34°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 32° to 34°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 32° to 34°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 32° to 34°

Winds will be from this direction:   West northwest 10 to 25 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 25°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise:  8:38 AM
Moonset:  9:53 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

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Friday, February 24, 2023
Confidence in the forecast?  Medium Confidence  
Friday Forecast:  Increasing clouds.  A slight chance of rain showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%

Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: After 12 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 50°
Southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 52°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 48° to 52°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 46° to 50°
Southern Illinois ~ 48° to 52°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 48° to 52°
Far western Kentucky ~ 46° to 50°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 50° to 52°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 48° to 52°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 50° to 52°

Winds will be from this direction:   North northeast 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:33 AM
Sunset:  5:44 PM
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Friday  night Forecast:   Rain likely.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%

Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 33° to 36°
Southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40° to 44°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 33° to 36°
Southern Illinois ~ 38° to 40°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 38° to 40°
Far western Kentucky ~ 38° to 42°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40° to 44°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 38° to 42°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40° to 44°

Winds will be from this direction:   South southwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Moonrise:  9:06 8 AM
Moonset:  11:00 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

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Saturday, February 25, 2023
Confidence in the forecast?  Medium Confidence  
Saturday Forecast:  Rain likely.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%

Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Before 4 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 52°
Southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 54°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 53° to 56°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 48° to 52°
Southern Illinois ~ 50° to 54°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 50° to 54°
Far western Kentucky ~ 50° to 54°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 50° to 54°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 50° to 54°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 50° to 54°

Winds will be from this direction:   South 15 to 25 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 46° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:32 AM
Sunset:  5:45 PM
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Saturday night Forecast:   Mostly cloudy. A chance of an evening shower.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%

Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Before 10 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 45°
Southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 45°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40° to 45°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 45°
Southern Illinois ~ 40° to 45°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40° to 45°
Far western Kentucky ~40° to 45°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40° to 45°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40° to 45°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40° to 45°

Winds will be from this direction:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
Moonrise:  9:36 8 AM
Moonset:  –:– —
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down.  Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook.  You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **

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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.

Today through February 23rd:  Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through Friday.  I will keep an eye on next Monday.

 

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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables.  Click here.

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Tornado Probability Outlook

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Damaging Wind Probability Outlook

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Large Hail Probability Outlook

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

 

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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion

    1.  Mild weather.
    2.  Unsettled weather into next week.  Frequent rain chances.
    3.  Monitoring thunderstorm chances and locally heavy rain.

 

Weather advice:

Monitor updates concerning several rain events.  Perhaps thunderstorms, as well.

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Forecast Discussion

A fairly active weather pattern is going to continue for our local area.  Seems the story of the last few months.  Ever since the middle of December!

We do have a weak disturbance moving through the region this morning.  This has delivered some clouds to the area.  Some patchy light rain were showing up on radar, as well.

Not much and many areas will simply remain dry.

Much of what was showing up on radar was not reaching the ground.  A few reporting stations did show light rain in their observations.

The rain will move off to the east southeast over the coming hours.

Clouds will give way to some sunshine today, as well.

It is going to be mild today with highs in the sixties.  Well above seasonal averages.

This is the second warmest start to the year for Paducah, Kentucky.  It would have been the warmest had we not recorded a couple of cold days at the end of January.

January was the fourth warmest January on record.  Again, it would have been number one had we not turned cold the last couple of days.

Here is the latest outlooks for temperature and precipitation.   See the BAMwx ones farther down in the blog.

Six to ten day outlooks

Day eight through fourteen outlooks

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Dry conditions are likely tonight into Tuesday afternoon.  Mild.

Winds will pick up Tuesday and remain gusty through most of the work week.

Our next chance of showers will arrive Tuesday night.

A frontal boundary will drape itself across our region.  Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected.

The first chance will be Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning,  Then, a brief lull.  Additional showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening.

Rain totals of 0.40″ to 0.80″ are anticipated, with locally higher amounts possible.

PWAT values will be high with this system, but thankfully the system is not expected to stall.

PWAT is a measure of moisture. that showers tap into.

We dry out late Wednesday night and Thursday.

Gusty winds are likely this week, especially Wednesday into Thursday.  Gusts above 30 mph are possible.

Another system pulls into the region by Friday evening and night.  Most of Friday will likely be dry during the day.  Then, increasing rain chances Friday night into Saturday.

Some of the data continues rain chances into Sunday.  For now, I have lower end rain chances Sunday vs Friday night and Saturday.

A larger system arrives by late Sunday night and Monday/Monday night.  That will bring more rain to the region.  Perhaps locally heavy rain.

Here is that system on the GFS model.

The good news is that severe thunderstorms are unlikely across most of the region this week.

I will keep an eye on the Missouri Bootheel.  The SPC has outlined a risk of a few severe thunderstorms there.

Day two.  Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.  General non-severe thunderstorms.

Day 3. Wednesday.  The yellow zone is a low-end level one marginal risk.  It clips the Missouri Bootheel.

I will monitor the SPC trends on these graphics.  For now, however, I believe our severe threat is low.

 

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

  1. The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
  2. The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

Green represents light rain.  Dark green represents moderate rain.  Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.

Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet.  Blue represents snow.  Dark blue represents heavy snow.

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This animation is the HRW FV3 high resolution model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

Green represents light rain.  Dark green represents moderate rain.  Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.

Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet.  Blue represents snow.  Dark blue represents heavy snow.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

 

 

 

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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

Green represents light rain.  Dark green represents moderate rain.  Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.

Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet.  Blue represents snow.  Dark blue represents heavy snow.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

 

 

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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

Green represents light rain.  Dark green represents moderate rain.  Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.

Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet.  Blue represents snow.  Dark blue represents heavy snow.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

Models are not picking up on much precipitation through Sunday night.

They show scattered sprinkles or flurries today into tomorrow.

You can barely see them on these graphics.

 

 

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This animation is the higher resolution 3K NAM American Model.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

Green represents light rain.  Dark green represents moderate rain.  Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.

Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet.  Blue represents snow.  Dark blue represents heavy snow.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

 

 

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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

Green represents light rain.  Dark green represents moderate rain.  Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.

Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet.  Blue represents snow.  Dark blue represents heavy snow.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

 

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This next animation is the GFS American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

Green represents light rain.  Dark green represents moderate rain.  Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.

Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet.  Blue represents snow.  Dark blue represents heavy snow.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

 

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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

Green represents light rain.  Dark green represents moderate rain.  Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.

Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet.  Blue represents snow.  Dark blue represents heavy snow.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

 

 

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This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

Green represents light rain.  Dark green represents moderate rain.  Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.

Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet.  Blue represents snow.  Dark blue represents heavy snow.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

 

 

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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.

These graphics are usually not updated until after 10 AM

Double click on image to enlarge it

Morning long-range update (usually updated after 10:30 AM). 

 

 


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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 49 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 31 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.00″

Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.

Click on the image to expand it.

This outlook covers February 20th, 2023 through February 27, 2023

Click on the image to expand it.

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 52 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 33 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.00″
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This outlook covers February 28th through March 7th

Click on the image to expand

The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.

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THIS IS UPDATED ON TUESDAY AND FRIDAY
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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around  56 degrees
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 36 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.60″ to 2.10″

This outlook covers March 3rd through March 16th

Precipitation outlook

 

Monthly Outlooks

E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal

February Temperature and precipitation Outlook

Double click images to enlarge them.

E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal

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March Temperature and precipitation Outlook

Double click images to enlarge them.

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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal

April Temperature and precipitation Outlook

Double click images to enlarge them.

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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal

May Temperature and precipitation Outlook

Double click images to enlarge them.

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Seasonal temperature and precipitation outlook

March through May

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Great news! The videos are now found in your WeatherTalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.

These are bonus videos for subscribers.

The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk

Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.

The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.

Apple users click here

Android users click here



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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.

College of Dupage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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2016-11-19_11-50-24

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